187
AXNT20 KNHC 151107
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Wed Oct 15 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1040 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Lorenzo is centered near 20.5N 45.1W at 15/0900
UTC or 1230 nm WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving N at 11 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are estimated
to be around 14 ft (3.5 m) near the center. Numerous moderate
convection is seen from 19N to 21N between 42W and 45W. Scattered
moderate convection is elsewhere from 18N to 25N between 40W and
47W. A turn toward the northeast and a faster forward speed are
expected later today. Little change in strength is forecast and
Lorenzo is forecast to dissipate by Thursday. Please read the
latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center
at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the
latest Lorenzo NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 04N to 15N with axis near 26W,
moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 04N to 14N between 21W and 32W.

A tropical wave extends from 04N to 14N with axis near 37W, moving
west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from
01N to 10N between 36W and 44W.

A tropical wave extends from 12N to 18N with axis near 58W, moving
WNW at 5 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is seen from
12N to 16N between 55W and 57W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Senegal coast near
13N16W to 10N22W to 08N27W where it transitions to the ITCZ. The
ITCZ then continues to 08N36W and then resumes west of a tropical
wave near 07N38W to 08N44W. See the Tropical Waves section for
information on convection.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
numerous heavy showers and strong thunderstorms across the
Caribbean waters between eastern Panama and northwestern
Colombia, and in the Gulf of Venezuela.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1017 mb high over SE Texas coastal waters is dominating the
Gulf and providing with light to gentle winds, and 1 to 3 ft seas
west of 88W. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas of 3 to 5
ft prevail over the SE Gulf due to the passage of a cold front
tail across the Florida Straits.

For the forecast, a weak ridge will dominate the Gulf region
through the forecast period, resulting in gentle to moderate winds
and slight to moderate seas over much of the basin. Winds are
forecast to increase to fresh speeds over the eastern and central
Gulf Thu night through Sat night as the pressure gradient tightens
some across the area. Winds will veer to the SE and S toward the
end of the week as high pressure over the SE United States shifts
eastward into the western Atlantic. Looking ahead, a cold front is
expected to reach the NW Gulf waters on Sun.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The passage of two cold fronts over the SW N Atlantic waters and
the presence of Tropical Storm Lorenzo in the central Atlantic
continue to support a weak pressure pattern in the Caribbean, thus
resulting in mainly light to gentle winds, except for locally
moderate easterly winds over the eastern basin. This is supporting
slight seas basin-wide, except in the Gulf of Honduras and
offshore waters between Colombia and Panama where moderate to
strong convection are likely supporting strong to gusty winds and
moderate to rough seas, respectively.

For the forecast, a cold front will move across Cuba and the NW
Caribbean through Thu before dissipating. Moderate to locally
fresh winds and moderate seas are expected in the wake of the
front. Unsettled weather conditions will persist along and ahead
of the frontal boundary through tonight. Elsewhere, a weak
pressure gradient will support moderate or lighter winds and
slight to moderate seas over much of the basin through Sat.
Easterly winds in the E Caribbean will become mainly fresh by Sat
evening as a vigorous tropical wave approaches the Lesser
Antilles. The tropical wave is forecast to enter the E Caribbean
late on Sun and fresh trades will extend to the central basin
waters.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for further details
on Tropical Storm Lorenzo in the central Atlantic.

Tropical Storm Lorenzo is near 20.5N 45.1W at 5 AM EDT, and is
moving north at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with
gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1004 mb.

A cold front extends from 31N59W to Andros Island and the Straits
of Florida. Scattered showers and tstms are within 120 nm ahead of
the front. Fresh to strong winds also follows this front with
stronger SW winds to near gale force ahead of the front to 58W.

Farther east, a 1003 mb low, remnants of Jerry, is generating
heavy showers and tstms N of 26N between 30W and 48W. Near gale
force to gusty winds are likely ongoing in the areas of strongest
convection. The remainder subtropical Atlantic waters are under
the inlfuence of a ridge centered by a 1018 mb high between the
Canary Islands and the Cape Verde Islands.

For the forecast, the cold front will move SE across the forecast
waters through Thu before dissipating. The front will reach from
31N57W to the Dominican Republic this evening, and from 31N55W to
20N65W Thu evening. Fresh to near gale force winds and rough seas
are expected on either side of the front across the waters N of
24N through Thu evening. A reinforcing front will follow the main
front, and is forecast to extend from 31N60W to the Straits of
Florida by Fri morning. Meanwhile, Lorenzo will move to 22.9N
43.3W this afternoon, 25.7N 40.4W Thu morning, and dissipate Thu
afternoon.

$$
Ramos