424
AXNT20 KNHC 141746
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sat Jun 14 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1800 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 30W from 15N southward,
moving westward around 10 kt. A few showers are observed near the
south end of wave axis.

Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 41W from 15N
southward. A few showers are observed near the south end of the
wave axis.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 70W from 17N
southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is observed S of 14N between 68W and 73W, with
scattered showers also observed near the wave axis N of 14N.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 87W from 18N southward,
extending across Honduras and Nicaragua into the eastern Pacific.
The wave is moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is observed in the Gulf of Honduras.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 08N27W. The
ITCZ extends from 06N32W to 04N40W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is observed from 04N northward to the
monsoon trough and E of 19W. No other significant convection is
seen in the region.

The East Pacific monsoon trough extends across the far SW
Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is observed across areas
S of 16N and W of 76W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

An upper level trough over the central US is aiding in the
development of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms in the N
Gulf, generally to the N of 26N. A surface trough is analyzed in
the SW Gulf west of the Yucatan Peninsula with scattered
showers near the trough axis. The rest of the Gulf is mainly
influenced by the western periphery of the Atlantic subtropical
ridge, extending westward across Florida and into the central
Gulf. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures
in Mexico result in moderate to fresh SE winds over much of the
western and central Gulf waters. Seas in the area described are
3-5 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas
prevail, locally 3-5 ft in the Straits of Florida.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong E to NE winds will
pulse each afternoon and evening north of the Yucatan Peninsula
and in the eastern Bay of Campeche as a diurnal trough develops
and treks westward across the region. Otherwise, ridging over the
western Atlantic will maintain moderate S to SE winds and moderate
seas over the central and western Gulf of America through the
middle of next week, with gentle to locally moderate SE winds and
slight to moderate seas in the eastern basin.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
sections for details on convection in the Caribbean.

The pressure gradient between the subtropical Atlantic high
pressure centered just east of Bermuda and lower pressure over
Colombia and the SW Caribbean continues to support fresh to
locally strong easterly trade winds across the eastern and central
Caribbean, and near the Gulf of Honduras. Seas in these waters
are 6-9 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas
are prevalent, except locally fresh winds through the Windward
Passage.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds are expected to
pulse across the central and west-central Caribbean through the
middle of next week as a strong pressure gradient prevails between
high pressure to the north and low pressure in the south-central
Caribbean. Rough seas in E swell are likely in this region. Fresh
to strong E to SE winds will also occur each night and morning in
the Gulf of Honduras, and these winds will expand through much of
the northwestern Caribbean early next week after the passage of a
tropical wave. Elsewhere, locally rough seas in E swell will occur
east of the Lesser Antilles and through the passages into the
eastern Caribbean into Sun. Otherwise, mainly moderate winds and
seas are expected across the rest of the basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The broad subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic dominates
the tropical Atlantic waters. The pressure gradient between the
ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics support moderate to
fresh easterly winds south of 22N and west of 35W, including
through the Windward Passage. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. In
the eastern Atlantic, moderate to locally strong N-NE winds and
seas of 6-9 ft are noted north of 20N and east of 20W. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to locally fresh trade
winds will pulse south of 25N through the middle of next week as
high pressure prevails over the central Atlantic. Locally strong
winds will be possible just north of Hispaniola by the middle of
next week. Elsewhere, moderate S to SW winds will pulse offshore
of Florida into the middle of next week as low pressure prevails
over the eastern United States. Otherwise, mainly gentle to
locally moderate winds and moderate seas are expected elsewhere
north of 25N through next week.

$$
Adams