945
AXNT20 KNHC 271807
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Wed Aug 27 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 36W from 15N
southward, and moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is seen from 05N to 10N between 35W and 41W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 61W from 22N southward
across the Lesser Antilles to northeastern Venezuela. It is
moving west around 15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is
present from 16N to 19N between 55W and 60W, and farther north
from 21N to 24N between 60W and 63W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 81W from near the Cayman
Islands southward across western Panama to the East Pacific Ocean.
It is moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Numerous heavy showers and
scattered strong thunderstorms are occurring over Nicaragua and
Honduras, and nearby Caribbean waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Senegal coast near
Dakar, then curves southwestward across 10N26W to 05N39W. An ITCZ
continues westward from 05N39W to northeast of French Guiana at
07N50W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is found
from 06N to 10N east of 20W. Scattered moderate convection is
present up to 110 nm along either side of the ITCZ.

Coupling with an upper-level trough, the eastern end of the East
Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered moderate
convection across the Caribbean waters near eastern Panama.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front extends west-southwestward from central Florida to
the central Gulf, then turns northwestward as a stationary front
to just west of Houston, Texas. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is evident up to 110 nm south, and 80 nm north
of this boundary. Convergent southerly winds are generating
scattered moderate convection across the southwestern Gulf. Gentle
to moderate NE to SE winds with locally higher gusts near showers,
and 2 to 4 ft seas dominate the entire Gulf.

For the forecast, the aforementioned frontal boundary will linger
over the central Gulf through tonight before lifting northwest of
the area by Thu. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail
across the Gulf, except for moderate to fresh NE to E winds over
the south-central and southwestern Gulf nightly as a diurnal
trough develops over the Yucatan Peninsula and moves westward at
night. Slight to locally moderate seas are forecast across the
basin through the upcoming weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent trade winds are causing widely scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms near eastern Cuba. Refer to the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional convection
in the Caribbean Sea. A subtropical ridge near 28N continues to
support a trade-wind pattern across much of the Caribbean Sea.
Fresh to locally strong ENE to E winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft are
present at the central basin. Light to gentle winds and seas of 2
to 4 ft persist near Costa Rica and Panama. Gentle to moderate NE
to SE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the
Caribbean Sea, including the Atlantic Passages.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas
are in the central Caribbean and these winds will become confined
to the south-central basin tonight into Thu. Fresh winds will
pulse near the Windward Passage through today. Decaying northerly
swell will propagate across the tropical Atlantic waters today.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A slow-moving cold front curves southwestward from off the
Georgia/Carolinas coast across 31N73W to central Florida.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring near
and up to 185 nm south of the front. Two weak but persistent
surface troughs are triggering isolated thunderstorms at the
central Atlantic, from 25N to 30N between 44W and 55W. To the
west, divergent flow aloft is enhancing isolated thunderstorms
north of 25N and west of 60W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and
Tropical Waves sections at the beginning for additional convection
in the Atlantic Basin.

A 1026 mb high near 33N47W is supporting gentle to moderate with
locally fresh ENE to SE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas north of 10N
between 35W and the Florida/Bahamas and Lesser Antilles. Gentle
to moderate with locally fresh southerly winds and seas of 4 to 6
ft prevail elsewhere west of 35W in the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will gradually stall
through tonight, then lift north of the area as a warm front on
Thu. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected
along and just southeast of the front. The Atlantic ridge will
dominate the remainder of the western Atlantic, producing a
gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow. Another weak front may move
off Georgia/northeastern Florida by the end of the week into the
weekend.

$$

Chan