453
AXNT20 KNHC 070338
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sun Jun 7 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic has it axis along
21.5W, south of 12N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Widely
scattered moderate isolated strong convection is depicted from 03N
to 06N between 20W and 25.5W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic near 34W, south of
13N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 04N to 05.5N between 35W and 40W near the ITCZ to
the W.

A tropical wave is in the Tropical N Atlantic approaching the
Lesser Antilles, along 59.5W, south of 17N to across Barbados and
Guyana, moving westward at around 20 kt. No significant
convection is noted over water.

A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean Sea along 67W, south
of the Mona Passage at 18N, moving westward at around 10 kt. The
wave is enhancing convection over portions of Venezuela and
Colombia but not over water away from from shore.

A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean Sea along 82W, south
of 20N to across western Panama and into the eastern tropical
Pacific Ocean, slowly moving around 5 kt. The tropical wave
continues to interact with an upper trough near 80W with
scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection from 15N to
21N between 71W and 80W impacting portions of Jamaica, eastern
Cuba, and Haiti, continuing to portions of the SE Bahamas and
Turks and Caicos Islands.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 04N32W. The
ITCZ extends from 03N35W to the coast of Brazil near 02N51W. Other
than the convection associated with two tropical waves as
described above, scattered moderate is also noted from 02N to
03.5N between 40.5W and 43.5W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure of 1018 mb is analyzed in the NE Gulf near Apalachee
Bay at 29.5W84W. The diurnal surface trough is analyzed over the
western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula resulting in fresh to
strong NE-E winds within about 60-120 nm of the northern and
western Yucatan. Otherwise, mainly Gentle to moderate E-SE flow
dominates the basin, locally fresh through the Straits of Florida.
Seas are 3-5 ft N of 21N and W of 87W, and 2-4 ft elsewhere. Some
scattered convection is evident near the coast of Tampico, and
from offshore Mississippi to the western Florida Panhandle.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf
region supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds over the
eastern Gulf and moderate to fresh SE to S winds over the western
Gulf through Mon. Winds will be easterly at mostly fresh speeds
across most of the western and central Gulf S of 26N through
midweek. The exception will be off the Yucatan Peninsula, where a
diurnal trough will support moderate winds to pulse to fresh,
occasionally strong, during the evenings through Wed. Slight to
moderate seas will prevail with these winds.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are moving westward across the Caribbean Sea
with a third in the tropical N Atlantic approaching the Lesser
Antilles, Please see the Tropical Waves section above for more
details including significant convection.

Otherwise, high pressure ridging prevails N of the area and E of
70W with surface troughing W of 70W over portions of the Bahamas.
This pressure pattern combined with the passing tropical waves
supports mainly moderate to fresh easterly trades across much of
the basin, except for weaker winds in the Lee of Cuba and in the
SW Caribbean where the pressure gradient is weaker. Seas are 4-6
ft from 11N to 18N to the E of 77W, and mainly 2-4 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds and
moderate seas will persist across the Caribbean through Sun as the
Atlantic ridge north of the area weakens and shifts eastward.
Winds will begin to increase again over the central Caribbean late
tonight into Sun, and over the NW part of the basin Sun night
into Mon as the pressure gradient tightens between the Atlantic
ridge and a broad area of low pressure located over the eastern
Pacific offshore of Central America.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are moving westward between the western
coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Please refer to the
Tropical Waves section for more details including any related
significant convection.

A dissipating stationary front extends from 31N58W to 28N65W with
the remnant western portion as a frontal trough to the Central
Bahamas. Some isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms are possible near the boundary. More prevalent and
deeper convection is over the SE Bahamas and Turks and Caicos
Islands due to an upper level trough extending from the Caribbean
near 80W. Moderate to fresh winds are prevailing near this
convection. Otherwise, high pressure centered just N of the area
along 33N to the E of the dissipating front dominates the weather
pattern across our waters. Gentle to moderate winds, mainly return
flow, dominates N of 22N and W of 45W with 4-5 ft seas in easterly
swell. To the E, a tight pressure gradient between the ridging and
troughing over NW Africa continues to support fresh to strong N-NE
winds N of 16N and E of 40W with 6-10 ft seas, highest NE of the
Canary and Madeira Islands. Mainly moderate to fresh trades and
4-7 ft seas in NE-E swells dominate the remainder of the waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weakening frontal boundary
extending from near 31N57W to near 27N65W will dissipate tonight.
A surface trough extending from near 27N65W to the southeastern
Bahamas will drift westward through Mon night. A cold front will
move across the waters N of 27N Tue through Wed, and gradually
dissipate by Thu. High pressure will follow the front, and will be
centered near Bermuda by Wed. This weather pattern will generally
support gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas into next
week, except for moderate to fresh trades S of 22N between
Hispaniola and Cuba starting late Wed.

$$
Lewitsky