347
AXNT20 KNHC 302214
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu Oct 01 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A western Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 86W, south of
20N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is observed over the western Gulf, associated
with an upper low over the Yucatan peninsula.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W, extends to
12N20W, and then to 17N30W and on to 10N40W. The ITCZ extends
from 10N40W to 08N50W to 09N61W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 10N to 14N between 20W and 30W, as well as from 12N to 18N
between 32W and 38W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A mid to upper low is centered on the north coast of the Yucatan
peninsula, supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms over the
south-central and southeast Gulf.

Deep-layer troughing continues to support showers and
thunderstorms across the Florida Straits and the far SE Gulf.
High pressure over the eastern United States supports gentle to
moderate SE winds and slight seas across the basin.

For the forecast, showers and thunderstorms will linger in the SE
Gulf through at least tonight. The pressure gradient between high
pressure over the eastern United States and lower pressures in
Texas and Mexico support increasing winds to moderate to fresh
speeds across the basin later this evening. The gradient will
weaken from west to east by the end of the week into the weekend
as a frontal boundary approaches the western Gulf waters, possibly
moving into the basin by the end of the weekend with weakening
winds and subsiding seas ahead of it. Increasing winds and
building seas are possible behind the very slow moving or stalling
front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed over
the western Gulf mainly west of 80W, associated with an upper low
over the Yucatan peninsula. High pressure over the western
Atlantic is supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the
basin. Seas are 5-7 ft over the central Caribbean and 3-5 ft
elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will
support pulsing fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the
central Caribbean and in the Gulf of Honduras through the
remainder of the week and into the weekend. Moderate or weaker
winds will prevail in the rest of the basin. Later, a frontal
boundary will slide into the Gulf of America and western
Atlantic this weekend, resulting in a weakening pressure
gradient across the Caribbean as the ridge retreats. Moderate to
locally fresh winds will then dominate the basin into early next
week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Deep-layer troughing over the Gulf continues to support scattered
moderate convection across the Bahamas and areas southward toward
Cuba. Another upper low centered over 20N60W is supporting
scattered moderate convection from 22N to 26N between 55W and 65W,
to include convection related to the remnant low of Fay near
23N52W. Outside of convection, gentle to moderate E to NE winds
and moderate seas prevail across much of the Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms will remain possible across the waters west of 70W
through at least tonight. High pressure will persist across the
region over the remainder of the week and into the weekend
supporting moderate to locally fresh easterly winds south of 25N.
Moderate or weaker winds will prevail elsewhere. Meanwhile, the
remnants of Post- Tropical Cyclone Fay currently just east of the
offshore waters may move west of 55W later tonight. This area will
continue to weaken and gradually dissipate by late this week.
Looking ahead, a frontal boundary may reach the waters off NE
Florida early next week, resulting in increasing winds and
building seas behind the slow moving or stalling boundary.

$$
Christensen