301
AXNT20 KNHC 031805
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Mon Nov 3 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1800 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 80W south of 21N, moving
westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is occurring from 09N to 21N between 75W and 85W.
Stronger convection in the area is likely being influenced by the
East Pacific monsoon trough in the SW Caribbean.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and continues
southwestward to near 08N20W. The ITCZ then extends from 08N20W to
04N42W and then west-northwestward to near 07N59W. Scattered
moderate convection is seen from 02N to 12N and E of 36W.

The Eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends across the far SW
Caribbean. Please see the Tropical Waves section for details on
associated convection.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front extends from just south of Naples, FL southwestward
to near 23N91W, then south and southwestward to near Veracruz.
No notable convection is occurring with the frontal passage.
Scatterometer data indicates fresh to strong N to NE winds
following the front, along with 5-8 ft seas in N to NE swell.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh N to NE winds will occur over
much of the basin into early Tue as a cold front moves
southeastward over the Gulf and into the northwestern Caribbean.
Locally strong winds will be possible in the central basin and
offshore of Veracruz into this afternoon. Building seas to 8 ft
are expected in the central and southwestern basin in the wake of
the cold front through Tue morning. Elsewhere, fresh E winds will
develop in the Florida Straits into the southeastern Gulf tonight
through midweek as high pressure builds over the southeastern U.S.
Looking ahead, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate
seas are expected over the basin by late week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on a tropical wave moving
from the central to the western Caribbean near 80W.

A 1446z Metop-B ASCAT pass captured fresh to strong E winds
across much of the central Caribbean, along with 6-9 ft seas.
Moderate to fresh trades and seas of 4-7 ft prevail in the eastern
Caribbean. Meanwhile across the SW and NW Caribbean including the
Gulf of Honduras, moderate to locally fresh NE winds and seas of
2-5 ft prevail.

For the forecast, fresh to strong E winds will occur over the
central Caribbean, including in the Gulf of Venezuela, through Tue
morning as a moderate pressure gradient prevails between low
pressure over the south-central basin, a tropical wave moving
through the western Caribbean and a cold front to the north. Rough
seas will occur near and to the west of the strongest winds.
Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong NE winds will occur in the lee
of Cuba and through the Windward Passage Tue evening through Wed
in the wake of a cold front moving through the northwestern basin.
Looking ahead, mainly moderate trade winds and moderate seas are
expected over the Caribbean Wed night through the rest of the
week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N40W to 29N51W where it becomes a
stationary front. The stationary front then oscillates between 28N
and 31N from 51W to about 74W, where it then extends into the
central Bahamas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring
N of 24N between 68W and 77W, also influenced by an upper level
trough over the region. Seas behind and N of the the cold front
are 6-10 ft in NW swell. A reinforcing cold front also extends
from 31N77W to the SE Florida coast near 27N80W.

In the east Atlantic, a weak 1015 mb low near 30N27W extends a
surface trough from the low to near 25N30W. Moderate to fresh
winds are occurring E of the low along with seas of 6-9 ft
surrounding the low in N to NW swell. Elsewhere across the
Atlantic and away from frontal boundaries, moderate to fresh
trades and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to locally fresh S to E
winds are expected east of 75W today as an increasing pressure
gradient develops between high pressure in the central Atlantic
and a cold front moving southeastward through the Florida
Peninsula. This cold front will progress into the central Atlantic
this week, leading to moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds and
rough seas ahead of the front. In the wake of the front, expect
fresh to strong N to NW winds and rough seas through late Tue.
Residual rough seas will prevail over the waters east of 65W
through Thu, and will be reinforced by a new NW swell on Fri.
Elsewhere by midweek, moderate to locally fresh NE winds are
expected over much of the waters as the front slowly weakens.

$$
Adams