911
AXNT20 KNHC 190422
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Wed Nov 19 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0422 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the E Atlantic near 14N17W and extends
southwestward to 19N23W. The ITCZ continues from that point to
04N50W. Scattered moderate convection prevails within 200 nm on
either side of the features mainly E of 45W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A broad surface ridge is dominating much of the Gulf. A surface
trough is analyzed over the Bay of Campeche along 92W. Gentle to
moderate NE to SE winds and slight seas are present across the entire
Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure centered over Florida will
maintain gentle to moderate E to SE winds and slight to moderate
seas into Sat night across the basin. Low pressure over northern
Mexico may lead to winds increasing to fresh speeds in the NW Gulf
Sun night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough over the NW Caribbean extends from south of Isla
de la Juventud to the Lower Florida Keys. Scattered moderate
convection is depicted along the trough, north of Cuba. To the E,
a surface trough is along 66W and N of 14N. Isolated convection
is found along the trough. The eastern extension of the Pacific`s
monsoon trough is enhancing scattered moderate convection across
the SW Caribbean S of 10N between 76W-81W. Moderate to fresh NE to
E trade winds and moderate seas are noted over the south- central
part of the basin. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and slight
seas prevail for the rest of the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, the aforementioned surface trough over the NW
Caribbean will move west toward the Yucatan Channel and dissipate
by Wed. With high pressure to the north and the Colombian low to
the south, mainly moderate trades will dominate through the
weekend, with nightly pulses of locally strong winds possible
offshore Colombia.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front over the western Atlantic extends from 31N58W
to 27N78W. To the E, a surface trough extends from 30.5N53W to
25N60W. Divergent upper- level winds are supporting numerous
moderate convection near the trough N of 25N between 50W and 58W.
Isolated showers are found north of Hispaniola in association to
another surface trough. Over the central- Atlantic, a stationary
front runs southwestward from the northeastern Atlantic across
31N37W to 24N42W. Scattered showers are found up to 50 nm along
either side of this feature. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E
winds and moderate seas are present across the tropical Atlantic S
of 20N, while light to gentle variable winds prevail elsewhere E
of the western Atlantic front. Moderate seas prevail across the
basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front over the
western Atlantic will gradually dissipate into Wed night. A weak
cold front will move into northern waters Thu night then stall
over NE waters Fri, before dissipating. Through late week, gentle
breezes will prevail, with mainly slight to moderate seas. Rough
seas in N swell N of 29N and E of 65W will decay tonight. Looking
ahead, SW winds may increase slightly off northeast Florida late
Fri through Sat ahead of a weak cold front moving into the
southeast U.S.

$$
KRV