353
AXNT20 KNHC 231046
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Nov 23 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and continues
southwestward to 09N19W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and
continues to 09N30W to 08N37W to 08N50W and to 07N58W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 03N to 09N
between 18W-25W. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of
the ITCZ between 26W and 28W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1019 mb high pressure is centered near 27N89W. The pressure
gradient in the area is allowing for mostly light to gentle
anticyclonic winds across the basin, except for gentle to moderate
northeast to east winds south of about 23N and east of 94W. Seas
are generally 2 to 4 ft, except for lower seas of 1 to 3 ft in
the NE Gulf. A stationary frontal boundary is analyzed from
southeastern Louisiana to 28N95W and to inland South Texas.
Satellite imagery shows scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
near the front west 95W from 26N to 28N. Patches of fog, some
dense, are along and just offshore the Big Bend Florida coast.

For the forecast, the stationary front will lift northeastward
as a warm front later today as low pressure develops near the
Texas and Oklahoma panhandles. The eastern portion of this
boundary is a cold front that is approaching the western Florida
panhandle. It will move across the NE Gulf today into this
evening. Expect fresh southerly flow off the Texas coast tonight
through Mon night supported by the gradient between low pressure
over northeast Mexico and high pressure that will be centered just
offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast. These winds will diminish Tue
ahead of a frontal boundary that will be nearing the Texas coast.
A stronger reinforcing cold front will overtake the frontal
boundary early Wed while emerging out over the NW Gulf. The cold
front will then sweep to the southeast of the basin by late Thu,
followed by fresh northeast winds and building seas. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms may accompany the initial frontal
boundary.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The combination between high pressure north of the area over the
western Atlantic and relatively lower pressure over northern
Colombian low is resulting in fresh to strong trade winds over
most of the central Caribbean as noted in overnight scatterometer
satellite data. In addition, a ship observation reported strong
northeast winds along the coast of Colombia at 08Z. Seas are 6 to
8 ft with these winds. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas
are noted over the remainder of the basin. Satellite imagery shows
a rather persistent area of scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms confined to the western section of the basin roughly
from 14N to 20N between 81W and 85W due to a trough in that part
of the sea. This is activity may be producing gusty winds at
times.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast to east winds will pulse
offshore of northern Colombia each night and morning well into the
upcoming week due to the pressure gradient resulting from the
combination of high pressure over the western Atlantic and
relatively lower pressures over northern Colombia and the south-
central Caribbean. Rough seas can be expected with these winds.
Elsewhere, the gradient will also support moderate to fresh trade
winds along with moderate seas over the remainder of the basin
through the period. The shower and thunderstorm activity over the
western Caribbean may linger into late tonight.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A dissipating stationary front is analyzed from near 31N58W
southwestward to 26N67W. No significant convection is associated
with this front. Mainly light to gentle winds and slight to
moderate seas are on either side of the front. Otherwise, high
pressure dominates the remainder of the western Atlantic, with a
1019 mb high pressure situated near the NW Bahamas. Overnight
scatterometer satellite data passes depict moderate to fresh
northeast to east winds south of about 23N west of 71W, including
through the passages of the Bahama Islands. These winds reach to
along the coast of Cuba and through the Straits of Florida. Fresh
northeast winds are in the Windward Passage as also seen
in the scatterometer satellite data passes.

Over the central Atlantic, a persistent trough extends from near
30N46W to 26N49W and to 18N52W. An upper-level low moving east-
southeastward is near 25N51W. This feature is providing upper
support for the low/trough. An area of moderate rain with embedded
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms is present from
21N to 31W between 43W and 51W. The pressure gradient between
strong high pressure of 1030 mb centered to the northeast of the
Azores and relatively lower pressures over NW Africa is sustaining
mostly fresh northeast to east winds north of about 28N and east
of 24W, including waters to the north of the Canary Islands. Seas
of 8 to 10 ft in northeast to east swell are over this area.
Moderate to fresh southeast to south winds are north of 22N
between 33W and the aforementioned trough and the southwest
periphery of the Azores high pressure. Seas are 8 to 10 ft with
these winds. Otherwise, mostly moderate to fresh trades, with
moderate seas are present across the remainder of the tropical
Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, weak high pressure off east-
central Florida will shift southeastward through early Mon in
response to a cold front that will move off the northeast Florida
coast this morning. The front will reach from near Bermuda to
Sebastian Inlet, Florida by early Mon. The eastern portion of the
front will continue eastward and reach from 30N55W to 27N70W by
early Tue, while the portion west of 70W starts to lift back north
as a warm front. High pressure will shift eastward off the Mid-
Atlantic coast during the week, with its related gradient
supporting moderate to fresh northeast to east winds and moderate
seas over the region, with large northwest swell following the
front southeast of Bermuda. Looking ahead, winds and seas will
diminish west of 70W by Wed, ahead of front expected to move off
the northeast Florida coast early Thu. The front will reach from
Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by late Thu night, followed by
fresh northeast winds and building seas.

$$
Aguirre