158
AXNT20 KNHC 272320
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu Aug 28 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 38W from 16N
southward, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 38W and 44W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 63W from 23N southward
across the Lesser Antilles to northeastern Venezuela, moving west
around 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of the
wave axis.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 84W from near the
Cayman Islands southward across western Panama to the East Pacific
Ocean, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Numerous heavy showers and
scattered strong thunderstorms are occurring over Nicaragua and
Honduras, and nearby Caribbean waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 16N17W to 06N39W. The
ITCZ continues from that point to 08N51W. Aside from the
convection related to a tropical wave described above, scattered
moderate convection is noted within 200 nm on either side of the
ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front is analyzed from 27N82W to 1015 mb low near
26N87W to 29N96W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along the
front. Convergent southerly winds are generating scattered moderate
convection across the southwestern Gulf. Gentle to moderate NE to
SE winds with locally higher gusts near showers, and moderate seas
dominate the entire Gulf.

For the forecast, the frontal boundary will linger over the
northern Gulf through tonight before lifting NW of the area by
Thu. Then, high pressure will dominate the basin the remainder of
the week into the weekend. Under this weather pattern, mainly
gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the basin, except for
moderate to fresh NE to E winds over the S-central and SW Gulf
nightly as a diurnal trough develops over the Yucatan Peninsula
and moves westward at night. Slight to locally moderate seas are
forecast across the Gulf waters through the upcoming weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent trade winds are causing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms near eastern Cuba. A subtropical ridge near 28N
continues to support a trade-wind pattern across much of the
Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong ENE to E winds and rough seas are
present at the central basin. Light to gentle winds and moderate
seas persist near Costa Rica and Panama. Gentle to moderate NE to
SE winds and moderate seas prevail for the rest of the Caribbean
Sea, including the Atlantic Passages.

For the forecast, the tropical wave, with axis along 83W, will
continue to produce scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms over much of the western Caribbean, including
Nicaragua and Honduras over the next couple of days. Fresh to
strong winds and moderate to rough seas are in the central
Caribbean and these winds will become confined to the S-central
waters tonight into Thu. Another tropical wave will move across
the eastern Caribbean tonight and Thu, reaching the central part
of the basin by Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A slow-moving cold front curves southwestward from off the
Georgia/Carolinas coast across 31N73W to central Florida.
Scattered showers are occurring near and up to 185 nm south of
the front. A few surface troughs are analyzed across the central
and eastern Atlantic with no significant convection at this time.
Elsewhere, surface ridging prevails anchored by a 1030 mb high
centered near 39N33W. Gentle to moderate ENE to SE winds and
moderate seas north of 10N between 35W and the Florida/Bahamas and
Lesser Antilles. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and moderate
seas prevail elsewhere west of 35W in the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the frontal boundary will lift N
tonight, then will remain nearly stationary along 30N and W of 75W
through at least Fri. The Atlantic ridge will dominate the
remainder of the forecast area producing a gentle to moderate
anticyclonic flow. Another weak front may move into the NW waters
by the end of the week into the weekend.

$$
ERA