545
AXNT20 KNHC 221450
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sat Aug 22 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1430 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 26W south
of 19N moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is seen from 05N to 10N between 23W
and 27W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 47W south of
20N  moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is
noted near the wave axis.

Another central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 59W
south of 20N. It is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. No
significant convection is noted near the wave axis.

A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean along 81W south of
20N, It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is active from western Panama to
eastern Nicaragua.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 08N28W, and
northwestward from there to 13N45W and to 13N50W, where it
transitions to the ITCZ to near 12N57W. No significant convection
is noted outside of what is described in the Tropical Waves
section above.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active along a trough
reaching from northern Georgia to the coast of Louisiana.
Additional showers and thunderstorms are active along a trough off
Veracruz in the southwest Gulf. Elsewhere, ridging prevails
anchored by 1017 mb high pressure near 24N92W. This pattern is
supporting light to gentle breezes and slight seas, except for
moderate winds and 3-5 ft seas over the Bay of Campeche east of
the trough in that area.

For the forecast, the weak high pressure will remain centered
over the basin through the middle of next week, leading to gentle
to moderate winds and generally slight seas. A surface trough will
generate fresh winds north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula in
the early evenings. These winds will spread westward away from the
peninsula each overnight as the trough migrates into the SW Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient associated to high pressure over the
western Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in northern South
America is sustaining fresh to strong trades primarily over the
south-central Caribbean. Seas in the range of 8 to 9 ft are with
these trades as noted in early morning satellite altimeter data
passes. Overnight satellite scatterometer data passes indicate
moderate to fresh trades elsewhere. Seas are of moderate state
with these trades. Light to gentle trades are over the northwest
part of the basin. Seas there are 2 to 3 ft. In addition to the
showers and thunderstorms from western Panama to eastern Nicaragua
described in the Tropical Wave section above, a cluster of
showers and thunderstorms is active north of Bonaire in the
southeast Caribbean.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between western Atlantic
high pressure and Colombia low pressure will support fresh to
strong trades and resultant rough seas over the south-central
Caribbean through much of next week. Elsewhere, mainly moderate to
fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail, aside from light to
gentle winds and slight seas in the NW basin. A pair of tropical
waves crossing the basin next week lead to enhanced winds after
their passages.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

1021 mb high pressure centered between the Bahamas and Bermuda
near 28N70W dominates the far western Atlantic west of 60W.
Moderate SE winds and 3-4 ft seas are noted off Hispaniola and
eastern Cuba, with fresh winds and seas to 5 ft near the northern
entrance to the Windward Passage. Moderate SW winds and 4 ft seas
are noted off northeast Florida, with gentle breezes and slight
seas elsewhere west of 60W. Scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms are active north of 25N and west of 70W, southeast
of an upper trough over the eastern U.S. Farther east, a trough
extends from the north- central Atlantic 1016 mb low pressure near
29N58W to 28N60W. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are active
along this trough. A few thunderstorms are also active near a
trough farther to the south extending from 28N55W to 25N57W.
Elsewhere farther east, the basin in under the influence of broad
1027 mb high pressure centered north of the area near 36N40W. This
pattern is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 5-7 ft
seas across the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure dominating the
northern parts of the waters will support light to gentle winds N
of 23N through the period. To the south, moderate to fresh trades
will prevail, with locally strong winds pulsing at times offshore
Hispaniola and into the Windward Passage. The northern portion of
a tropical wave will move across the waters S of about 23N and E
of the Bahamas early next week freshening the trades. By Wed, the
northern portion of another tropical wave may move across the SE
portion of the area, increasing the trades over those waters.

$$
Christensen