409
AXNT20 KNHC 051935
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Nov 6 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1920 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1004 mb low pressure area,
located near 27N65.5W, is producing gale force winds to the north
and north of the center, as observed on afternoon scatterometer
satellite data. Widespread strong winds are occurring across much
of the central tropical Atlantic, generally north of 27N between
55W and 70W. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere from 20N to 31N
between 55W and 72W. Recent buoy data indicate that rough seas of
8 to 12 ft are occurring in this region, with locally higher seas
to 16 ft noted near the gale force winds. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is also noted. Environmental conditions
could allow this system to gradually acquire some subtropical
characteristics during the next couple of days or so while it
moves slowly eastward over the western and central subtropical
Atlantic. By late this weekend, upper-level winds are forecast to
become unfavorable for further development of this system. A new
non- tropical low could form to its east this weekend. Although
environmental conditions are unlikely to support significant
subtropical or tropical development of that system, gale-force
winds are possible over parts of the central subtropical Atlantic
through the weekend. Winds and seas start to diminish thereafter,
as environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for
further development. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/HSFAT2.html and the latest Tropical
weather outlook at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/TWOEP.html
for more details.

Heavy Precipitation across Central America: Deep-layer troughing
over the northwestern Caribbean extends southwestward across
northern portions of Central America and into the tropical
eastern Pacific. This feature will interact with enhanced low-
level moisture and onshore flow south of the monsoon trough over
the next several days. This will favor heavy precipitation
developing across Central America starting today and lasting
through at least Friday. The heaviest precipitation is expected
across Nicaragua and Costa Rica, with the bulk of precipitation
occurring through today. Heavy rainfall may lead to life-
threatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to your
local weather agency and the International Desk at the Weather
Prediction Center for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W and extends to
08N15W. The ITCZ extends from 08N15W to 10N40W to the coast of
northern South America at 08N60W. Isolated to widely scattered
moderate convection is noted from 01N to 14N between 16W and 42W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front extends from the northeastern Gulf near
Pensacola, Florida and continues southwestward to 25N96.5W
offshore of NE Mexico. Farther southeast, a weak 1013 mb high
prevails, centered near 25N88W. This pattern is supporting
moderate or weaker winds, and 1-3 ft seas across the basin.

For the forecast, the stalled frontal boundary from the Florida
panhandle to the NW Gulf will start to push southward as a cold
front across the Gulf waters Friday. Near gale NW winds are
expected in the SW Gulf Sun night and Mon west of the front.
Moderate to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere west of the front
on Sun through early next week as it moves east across the basin.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1008 mb low is centered over the northwestern Caribbean near
17N82W with limited convection. Afternoon scatterometer satellite
data indicate mainly light to locally moderate NE to NE winds are
occurring northwest of this feature. Elsewhere, moderate to
locally strong convection is noted south of Hispaniola, and gusty
winds and rapidly building seas are likely in this region.
Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds and 1-3 ft seas are occurring
across the rest of the basin, slightly higher seas near Atlantic
passages.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the basin will
result in moderate or weaker trade winds, along with slight to
moderate seas, through early next week. Winds will strengthen over
the central Caribbean Tuesday.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale
Warning in the western Atlantic and the potential for subtropical
development of this system (Invest AL94).

Elsewhere, a cold front enters the central Atlantic near 31N25W
and extends southwestward to 25N37W. Moderate to locally fresh SW
winds are occurring south and east of the front. Farther west, a
surface trough extending from 25N38W to 27N51W to 31N52W is
producing locally fresh winds on either side of the feature.
Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere
over the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, a 1004 mb low pres centered near
27N65W will drift through Fri then slowly move east-northeastward
during the weekend. An area of strong to gale-force winds, and
rough to very rough seas, peaking near 14 ft, prevails north of
the low and will expand eastward through Sun, impacting the waters
mainly north of about 27N. Elsewhere, a weakening cold front will
move across the waters between Florida and 75W Fri and Fri night,
then dissipate Sat and Sat night.

$$
Lewitsky