018
AXNT20 KNHC 020543
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Tue Sep 2 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0505 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warning E of 35W: A tight pressure gradient between a 1029
mb high pressure system south of the Azores and lower pressure
over NW Africa will continue to support strong to gale-force N-NE
winds and rough to very rough seas in the Agadir region through at
least 02/0900 UTC. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas will
persist off Morocco into early Wed. For more details, refer to the
Meteo- France High Seas Forecast listed on their website
https://wwmiws.wmo.int

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 22W, south of 18N, moving
westward at 10-15 kt. The broad disturbance is producing scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection from 04N to 18N and east
of 40W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form
by the middle or latter part of this week. This system is expected
to move westward to west-northwestward at around 15 mph across
the eastern and central tropical Atlantic throughout the week.
There is a low chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48
hours, and a medium chance of formation in the next 7 days. Refer
to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 49W, south of 19N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. The wave is embedded in a dry Saharan
airmass that is suppressing the development of showers and
thunderstorms near the wave axis.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 85W, south of 19N,
moving westward at 15-20 kt. Isolated moderate convection is
present south of 15N and west of 78W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 18N16W and continues to 10N27W to 10N42W. The
ITCZ extends from 10N42W to 10N46W and then from 10N52W to 11N61W.
Isolated moderate convection is noted within 120 nm on both sides
of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front extends from near Naples, Florida to south
Texas. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
occurring within 120 nm of the front. The strongest convection is
noted in the SE Gulf and Florida Straits. Similar convection is
evident in the eastern Bay of Campeche. The moderate pressure
gradient between the ridge to the north and low pressure over
southern Florida result in moderate easterly winds and seas of 2-4
ft in the NE Gulf. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight
seas prevail. However, mariners navigating near strong storms can
expect gusty winds and higher seas.

For the forecast, the front will remain stationary while
it gradually dissipates through Tue. The front will be a focus
for showers and thunderstorms for the north-central and southeast
Gulf into mid-week. Elsewhere, the weak gradient in place will
maintain mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to locally
moderate seas through Sat night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front across of southern Florida and divergence aloft
continue to support scattered showers across Cuba and the
nearshore waters in the NW Caribbean. Similar convection is seen
in Hispaniola and moving into the Gulf of Gonave. Generally drier
conditions are seen in the rest of the basin.

The subtropical ridge north of the islands is forcing fresh to
locally strong easterly trade winds in the south-central
Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Moderate to locally
fresh easterly breezes and slight to moderate seas are present in
the north-central, eastern Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras.
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, a tropical wave moving into eastern Honduras and
Nicaragua will move west of the basin through early Tue.
Elsewhere, Atlantic high pressure building behind the tropical
wave and in combination with low pressure over northern Colombia
will support moderate to fresh trades along with moderate seas
across much of the central Caribbean through Sat. Fresh to
occasionally strong winds are expected to pulse at night off
Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela. In addition, moderate to
fresh winds will prevail in the Gulf of Honduras through the
forecast period.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details on the Gale
Warning in the Agadir region issued by Meteo-France.

A stationary front extends from near 31N72W to a 1009 mb low pres
just off Port Saint Lucie, Florida. Numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorm are evident on satellite imagery over much of the SW
North Atlantic, especially west of 70W. The pressure gradient
between the ridge over the eastern United States and the
aforementioned low pressure sustain fresh to locally strong
easterly winds and moderate to locally rough seas north of the
front and west of 77W.

Farther east, a surface trough from 24N to 29N and along 51W
continues to generate scattered showers near the trough axis. The
remainder of the basin is dominated by a 1029 mb high pressure
system south of the Azores. The pressure gradient between this
ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics result in moderate
to strong NE-E winds north of the monsoon trough and east of 50W.
Moderate to rough seas are occurring in these waters. The strongest
winds and highest seas are found east of 20W. Moderate to fresh SW
winds and seas of 5-8 ft are present south of the monsoon trough
and east of 30W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to
moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front will persist through Thu.
Expect moderate to fresh NE winds with moderate seas north of the
front tonight through Tue morning. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms associated with this frontal boundary will affect
the Florida seaboard, and the northern and central Bahamas through
Fri. Elsewhere, the Atlantic ridge will dominate the pattern from
the central Atlantic through the Bahamas, supporting gentle to
moderate breezes and mostly moderate seas.

$$
Delgado