161
AXNT20 KNHC 170919
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Jun 17 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0600 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 20W, south of 15N,
moving westward at around 10 kt. Nearby convection is described
below.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 42W, south of 16N,
moving westward at around 10 kt. Nearby convection is described
below while the northern portion is embedded in a dry Saharan
airmass.

Another tropical wave is moving near the Tropical N Atlantic
offshore zones along 53W, south of 16N, moving westward at around
10 kt. Nearby convection is described below.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 83W, south of 19N just
SW of the Cayman Islands, moving westward at around 10 kt. Nearby
convection is described below.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 06N30W.
The ITCZ extends from 06N30W to 04.5N40.5W, then resumes west of
a tropical wave near 04N43W to the coast of Brazil at 02N51W.
Scattered moderate convection if present from 04N to 09N east of
22W, from 04N to 09N between 28W and 32.5W, from 03N to 07N
between 38W and 45W, and from 02N to 04.5N between 49W and 51W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Divergence aloft is producing a few showers in the northern half
of the Gulf of America, while drier conditions are prevalent
elsewhere. The subtropical ridge extends into the basin,
supporting moderate to locally fresh easterly waters south of 25N
and east of 95W. Seas in these waters are 3-5 ft. Gentle to
moderate anticyclonic winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong E to NE winds will pulse each
afternoon and evening through the next several days north of the
Yucatan Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of Campeche as a diurnal
trough develops and tracks westward across the region. Otherwise,
surface ridging extending across most of the basin from the
western Atlantic will maintain moderate to fresh S to SE winds and
moderate seas over the central and western Gulf through Sat
night. Gentle to locally moderate SE winds and slight seas are
forecast to prevail across the eastern half of the basin.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Tropical Wave section above for information
regarding a tropical wave moving across the western Caribbean.

The eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends from along the border
of Nicaragua and Costa Rica to across the SW Caribbean to
northern Colombia through a 1010 mb low near 10N78.5W. Very active
convection is near the monsoon trough and a tropical wave
approaching Central America along 83W as described above.

An extensive subtropical ridge centered north of the Caribbean
Sea is forcing strong to near gale-force easterly trade winds in
the south-central Caribbean, with the strongest winds occurring
off northern Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas in these
waters are 7-10 ft. In the rest of the north-central Caribbean
and Gulf of Honduras, fresh to strong easterly winds and moderate
seas are evident. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate
seas are present in the eastern and remainder of the western
Caribbean. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas
are prevalent elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to near gale force easterly winds and
rough seas to 11 ft are forecast across the central and portions
of the SW Caribbean through Sat night due to a prevalent Atlantic
subtropical ridge extending southward into the northern Caribbean.
Fresh to strong trades will pulse at night in the Gulf of
Honduras through today and then stay strong through Thu while
expanding northward as the Bermuda High builds. Rough seas are
expected in the Gulf of Honduras and other portions of the NW
Caribbean tonight through Wed night. Gentle to moderate winds and
moderate seas are expected elsewhere through Sat night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Tropical Wave section above for information
regarding tropical waves moving across the Atlantic.

An extensive subtropical ridge dominates the entire tropical
Atlantic basin, extending a ridge from a 1024 mb high pressure
near 28N55W and a 1025 mb high pressure near 30N43W. Moderate to
locally fresh easterly trade winds are from 07N to 23N and west
of 35W. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Moderate to locally fresh
S to SW winds are found offshore northern Florida. Moderate to
locally fresh N-NE winds and seas of 4-6 ft are found from 17N to
28N east of 22W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh easterly winds
are forecast south of 24N through Sat night as a broad subtropical
Atlantic ridge stays in place. Strong winds will pulse just north
of Hispaniola at night into late week as the Bermuda High builds.
Moderate to fresh S to SW winds will prevail offshore of NE
Florida through Thu associated with a surface trough extending
along the eastern United States. Moderate or weaker winds and
slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere through the week
and into the weekend.

$$
Lewitsky