535
AXNT20 KNHC 172345
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Jun 18 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2335 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The broad disturbance in the Bay of Campeche has been designated
as Potential Tropical Cyclone One (PTC One). Potential Tropical
Cyclone One is near 20.3N 93.2W at 5 PM EDT, and is moving north-
northwest at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to
45 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Seas are peaking
near 12 ft in the south-central Gulf, near 24N89W. Numerous
moderate to scattered strong convection is observed west of 77W in
the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. Heavy rains are also
impacting portions of southern Mexico, Central America, western
Cuba, Cayman Islands and Jamaica. A general northerly motion is
expected to continue through Tuesday. A turn toward the west-
northwest is expected Tuesday night or Wednesday, and system is
likely to approach the western Gulf coast late Wednesday. Some
slow strengthening is possible, and the disturbance is forecast to
become a tropical storm by Wednesday.

The broad system will continue to produce heavy rainfall across
southern Mexico and western Central America during the next few
days due to strong southwestern wind flow bringing copious amounts
of moisture to the region. The heavy rains will also expand toward
Texas and NE Mexico in the next couple of days. The threat to
life and property increases as the event continues.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
and the latest Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 29W, south of 16N,
moving westward at 10-15 knots. No deep convection is noted near
the trough axis.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 64W, south of 17N,
moving westward at 10-15 knots. No deep convection is noted near
the trough axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W, then continues southwestward to
06N40W. The ITCZ extends from 06N40W to 08N58W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is present from 04N to 14N and east
of 25W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
evident from 07N to 17N and between 51W and 60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on
Potential Tropical Cyclone One and its impacts.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One covers most of the Gulf of Mexico,
producing numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms except in
the NE Gulf and west of 95W. The strongest convection is seen in
the Bay of Campeche. The pressure gradient between PTC One and the
ridge in the NW Atlantic is supporting strong to minimal gale
force winds E winds across most of the eastern Gulf, including the
Yucatan Channel. Similar wind speeds are over the western Gulf N
of 22N. Seas are 8-12 ft within these winds, with the highest seas
across the waters from 22N-29N between 88W and 95W. Moderate to
fresh winds are noted over the NE Gulf and in the Bay of Campeche
with seas of 4-7 ft.

For the forecast, Potential Tropical Cyclone One is near 20.3N 93.2W
at 5 PM EDT, and is moving north-northwest at 6 kt. Maximum
sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum
central pressure is 1001 mb. One will move to 21.1N 93.4W Tue
morning, 22.2N 93.8W Tue afternoon, 22.9N 95.0W Wed morning, 23.4N
96.4W Wed afternoon, 23.8N 97.7W Thu morning, and inland to 24.0N
98.9W Thu afternoon. One will move inland over 24.0N 101.4W by
Fri afternoon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on
Potential Tropical Cyclone One and its impacts.

The broad nature of Potential Tropical Cyclone One results in
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the central and
NW Caribbean Sea. Similar convection is also impacting Hispaniola.
Drier conditions are noted elsewhere in the basin. The pressure
gradient between PTC One and a 1026 mb high pressure system in the
NW Atlantic sustains fresh to locally near gale-force SE winds in
the NW Caribbean, especially west of 82W. Stronger gusts are
possible with the strongest convection. Seas in these waters are
7-10 ft. Fresh to strong easterly winds and seas of 3-6 ft are
noted in the south-central Caribbean. Moderate or weaker winds and
slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, Potential Tropical Cyclone One will move gradually
toward NE Mexico over the next few days. The pressure gradient
between the ridge and PTC One will continue to produce fresh to
near gale-force SE winds through at least Wed night. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to affect the NW
Caribbean through midweek. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trades
over the central and E Caribbean will reach moderate to fresh
speeds by midweek and prevail through late Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 31N60W toward the Windward Passage.
A weak 1014 mb low is analyzed along the trough axis near 24N67W.
Scattered showers and thunderstorm are active along, and ahead
this trough. Moderate to fresh NE winds and 4-5 ft seas are noted
west of the trough, with moderate or weaker breezes and 3-5 ft
seas elsewhere west of 55W. The remainder of the Atlantic
discussion area is dominated by strong ridge north of the Azores.
The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in NW
Africa sustain fresh to strong northerly winds and seas of 6-8 ft
from 17N to 26N and east of 21W. Elsewhere in the basin, gentle
to moderate winds and seas in the 4-7 ft range prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms persist in the vicinity of a low pres and surface
trough extending from 31N60W to the low near 24N67W to 21N74W.
These features will continue to shift eastward through midweek.
Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will persist N of 25N and west of
60W as high pressure continues to build in the wake of the
low/trough. An area of cloudiness and thunderstorms located
several hundred miles east of the Bahamas is associated with a
surface trough and an upper- level area of low pressure.
Environmental conditions could be conducive for some development
of this system during the next few days while it moves westward or
west-northwestward. The system is forecast to approach the coast
of the southeast United States by the end of the week. Regardless
of development, fresh to strong winds and rough seas will develop
across the waters N of 25N tonight through Thu.

$$
Delgado