060
AXNT20 KNHC 131759
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu Aug 13 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between subtropical
high pressure across the western Atlantic along 27N and lower
pressure over northern South America will tighten late this week,
behind a passing tropical wave, increasing trade winds across the
eastern and central Caribbean, and forcing gales to develop Fri
evening in the Gulf of Venezuela and offshore Colombia. Gales will
prevail Fri night then diminish below gale-force Sat morning.
Very rough seas to 15 ft will build near and downwind of these
gales in the southwest Caribbean Fri night into early Sat. Please
see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

Invest AL92: Showers and thunderstorms have become less organized
in association with a tropical wave located along 45W. In
addition, recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the
system does not have a closed circulation, but did show strong
winds north of the low to 20N, between 37W and 50W, with rough
seas to 10 ft. This system is expected to move into a region of
strong upper-level winds and dry air, and the development chances
appear to be decreasing. This system currently has a medium chance
of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours. Interests in
the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system as
gusty winds and areas of heavy rain are possible Friday night and
Saturday, regardless of development.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 28W, from 06N to 20N, moving
west at around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 08N to 14N between 25W and 35W. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be generally conducive for gradual development, and a
tropical depression could form late this week or this weekend
while the wave moves westward or west-northwestward across the
eastern and central tropical Atlantic.

The axis of a Caribbean tropical wave extends from NW Venezuela
across the western Dominican Republic, moving westward at about 15
kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 15N to
25N between 67W and 73W.

The axis of a central Caribbean tropical wave is along 79W,
southward across central Cuba to Panama, moving westward at
around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is impacting the waters
between Cuba and Jamaica, and also W of Jamaica to about 82W.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 15N17W and extends
southwestward through a 1010 mb low pressure near 11N45W to
06N56W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
from 06N to 12N and E of 21W. Elsewhere across the Atlantic,
convection near these features is primarily associated with the
tropical waves and special feature described above.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure prevails over the northern Gulf waters, anchored by
a 1018 mb high near 27N86W. Light to gentle winds and slight seas
prevail across the NE Gulf. Mainly moderate E to S winds, with
slight to moderate seas, prevail elsewhere. A diurnal surface
trough has moved offshore the Yucatan Peninsula and into the
central Bay of Campeche, triggering scattered moderate convection
along the northern end of the trough axis. Behind the trough,
fresh SE winds prevail.

For the forecast, a weak high pressure should remain over the N
Gulf for the next several days. A nightly surface trough will move
westward off of the Yucatan peninsula into the SW Gulf, causing
fresh to locally strong NE winds. Elsewhere, winds and seas should
be quiescent for the next several days.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

See Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning
that has been issued for portion of the south-central basin
effective Fri night.

The pressure gradient between western Atlantic high pressure along
27N and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong winds
over the south central Caribbean S of 17N. Rough seas to 8 ft prevail
over these waters. Fresh to locally strong trade winds and
moderate seas to 6 ft prevail over the northeast Caribbean behind
the tropical wave across the eastern Dominican Republic. Gentle
to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail over the remaining
waters.

For the forecast, a strong tropical wave along 70W along with the
Bermuda High north of the region will enhance the trades over the
central Caribbean tonight through Sat. Peak winds should reach
gale force just north of Colombia and Venezuela tonight through
Sat morning. Additionally, another strong tropical wave - noted as
Invest AL92 - should start impacting the Leeward Islands
beginning tomorrow evening. Winds strong to near gale force along
with scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected from
tomorrow night through Sat night for the Leeward Islands. As
Invest AL92 moves westward, the enhanced winds will shift toward
through N central Caribbean and the Greater Antilles including the
Windward Passage from Sat night through Sun night. Afterwards the
tropical wave may weaken, as it moves toward the W Caribbean.
Note that if Invest AL92 forms into a tropical cyclone, the winds
and waves expected may be higher than indicated here.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See Special Features section above for information on Invest AL92
located over the central tropical Atlantic.

High pressure prevails over the waters N of 18N, anchored by a
1024 mb high centered near 28N46W, extending westward to SE
Florida, and northeastward to a 1027 mb high near 35N27W. Mainly
gentle winds prevail over the waters N of 24N and west of 30W,
with slight to moderate seas. Moderate to fresh trade winds are
noted S of 24N and W of 30W, with moderate seas. Invest AL92 is
currently passing due south of the 1024 mb high center, and is
producing a broad swath of fresh to strong winds S of 20N between
37W and 50W. Offshore Africa, fresh to locally strong NE winds
extend from the Canary Islands to 20N then become moderate to
locally fresh across the Cabo Verde Islands to 30W. Moderate to
locally rough seas prevail across this area. Upper level troughing
supports widely scattered moderate convection N of 25N between 60W
and 80W. Dry and stable Saharan Air continues to dominate much of
the basin S of 24N to 14N, between Africa and the NE Caribbean.

For the forecast west of 55W, ridging along 27N with the Bermuda
High combined with two tropical waves passing through the
Caribbean will cause fresh to strong NE to E winds south of 22N
from tonight through Sun night. Elsewhere winds are expected to
remain light to moderate for the next few days. Looking ahead, a
weak cold front will slowly push across our northern border east
of 70W Sun, causing a wind shift to northeast but with little
change in wind speeds on Sun and Mon north of 28N.

$$
Adams