924
AXNT20 KNHC 162304
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon Jun 16 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has been introduce to this map, analyzed along 18W
from 02N to 15N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 05N to 12N between 17W-21W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 02N to
16N with axis near 40W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted along the southern portion of the wave.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 02N to
15N with axis near 51W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted along the southern portion of the wave.

A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean S of 19N with axis near 82W,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is
ahead and along the wave axis extending over Nicaragua, Costa Rica
and Panama offshore waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W and continues
southwestward to 05N29W. The ITCZ extends from 05N29W to 05N36W
and then resumes W of a tropical wave from 04N43W to 03N48W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm on either sides of
the boundaries.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface ridge continues to extend from the central Atlantic
into the Gulf waters, supporting moderate to fresh E-SE winds and
moderate seas west of 90W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker E to SE
winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Otherwise, a surface
trough is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms with
gusty winds and rough seas offshore Veracruz and over the Bay of
Campeche. Scattered moderate convection is also depicted over the
northern Gulf.

For the forecast, fresh to strong E to NE winds will pulse each
afternoon and evening through the week north of the Yucatan
Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of Campeche as a diurnal trough
develops and tracks westward across the region. Otherwise, surface
ridging extending across most of the basin from the western
Atlantic will maintain moderate to fresh S to SE winds and
moderate seas over the central and western Gulf through Fri night.
Gentle to moderate SE winds and slight seas are forecast to
prevail across the eastern half of the basin.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Tropical Wave section above for information
regarding a tropical wave moving across the western Caribbean.

The Caribbean is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge
centered by a 1025 mb high near 32N35W. The pressure gradient
between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures over the SW
Caribbean results in strong to near gale-force easterly winds in
the south-central and portions of the SW Caribbean. Seas in these
waters are in the rough category. The strongest winds and seas
are noted off NW Colombia. Fresh to strong easterly winds and
moderate seas are noted in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to
fresh trades are elsewhere, except in the lee side of Cuba where
winds are gentle to moderate.

For the forecast, fresh to near gale force easterly winds and
rough seas are forecast across the central and portions of the SW
Caribbean through Fri night due to a prevalent Atlantic
subtropical ridge extending southward into the northern Caribbean.
Fresh to strong trades will pulse at night in the Gulf of
Honduras through Tue and then stay strong through Thu while
expanding northward as the Bermuda High builds. Rough seas are
expected in the Gulf of Honduras and other portions of the NW
Caribbean Tue night through Wed night. Gentle to moderate winds
and moderate seas are expected elsewhere through Fri night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Tropical Wave section above for information
regarding tropical waves moving across the central Atlantic.

An extensive subtropical ridge dominates the entire subtropical
Atlantic waters, extending from a 1025 mb high pressure near
32N35W. Moderate to fresh easterlies are ongoing across the Great
Bahama Bank, and Puerto Rico and Hispaniola offshore waters. The
passage of two tropical waves is supporting winds of similar speed
between 42W and the Lesser Antilles with moderate to rough seas.
Moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate seas are ongoing between
the NW coast of Africa and the Cape Verde Islands. Moderate or
weaker winds are elsewhere along with slight to moderate seas.
Otherwise, scattered showers are over the Dominican Republic
offshore waters due to a deep layer trough.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh easterly winds
are forecast south of 25N through Fri night as a broad subtropical
Atlantic ridge stays in place. Strong winds will pulse just north
of Hispaniola at night into late week as the Bermuda High builds.
Moderate to fresh S to SW winds will prevail offshore of NE
Florida through Thu associated with a surface trough extending
along the eastern United States. Moderate or weaker winds and
slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere through the week.

$$
ERA