596
AXNT20 KNHC 311931
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun Aug 31 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warning E of 35W: A tight pressure gradient between a 1030 mb
high pressure system west of the Azores and lower pressures over
NW Africa will support strong to gale-force N-NE winds and rough
to very rough seas in the Agadir region from 01/0600 UTC to at
least 01/1200 UTC. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas will
persist off Morocco into early Wed. For more details, refer to
the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on their website
https://wwmiws.wmo.int

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 38W, south of 19N,
moving westward at 10 kt. No significant convection is occurring
near this wave.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 69W, south of 19N,
moving westward around 20 kt. A few showers are noted near the
wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 17N16W and continues southwestward to 11N23W then
westward to near 10N41W. The ITCZ extends from 10N41W to 13N59W.
Scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to 13N and
east of 25W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are also
seen from 06N to 14N between 44W and 56W.

The eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough extends
across the far SW Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is seen
generally S of 11N and W of 80W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak stationary front extends from the Florida Big Bend area to
the SE Texas coast. This front is producing isolated moderate
convection N of 28N and W of 92W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are also across much of the Gulf N of 25N.
Otherwise at the surface, weak ridging prevails, supporting
moderate or weaker winds and slight seas.

For the forecast, a weak mostly stationary front extends from
near Crystal River, Florida to the mouth of the Mississippi River
in southeast Louisiana. The front will sag south today into early
Mon, then meander over the north- central and northeast Gulf
through early next week, bringing showers and isolated
thunderstorms to the area. The stronger thunderstorms will induce
locally hazardous winds and seas. Elsewhere, the weak gradient in
place will maintain mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to
locally moderate seas through the period.


...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The subtropical ridge centered over the central Atlantic and lower
pressures over northern South American continue to support fresh
to locally strong E to NE winds in the south-central Caribbean.
Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Moderate to locally fresh
easterly breezes and slight to moderate seas are present in the
north- central Caribbean and also in the Bay of Honduras. In the
rest of the basin, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, a tropical wave moving across the central
Caribbean will produce some showers over the next few days,
reaching the the western Caribbean Mon. Otherwise, Atlantic high
pressure in combination with low pressure over northern Colombia
will support fresh to strong trades along with moderate to locally
rough seas across much of the central Caribbean through this
week. Later, moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate
seas will prevail across the central and eastern Caribbean
through next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak stationary front extends from a 1011 mb low off NE Florida
to near Flagler Beach, Florida, with a surface trough extending
from the low southward offshore Florida through the NW Bahamas.
Both features are leading to scattered thunderstorms N of Cuba and
W of 71W. Farther east, a couple of surface troughs are also
producing scattered showers and thunderstorms N of 27N and
between 60W and 70W. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas
are noted west of 73W and north of 26N. The remainder of the SW
North Atlantic is under the influence of a subtropical ridge that
maintains generally moderate or weaker winds and slight to
moderate seas.

The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a 1030 mb high
pressure system west of the Azores. This ridge forces moderate to
locally strong NE-E winds and moderate to rough seas north of 18N
and east of 50W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate
seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weak mostly stationary front
extends from a 1011 mb low off NE Florida to near Daytona Beach,
Florida, supporting clusters of showers and thunderstorms along
and northeast of the northern Bahamas, which will continue through
early this week. The low pressure will track to the northeast,
dragging the front southward across much of Florida. Following the
low and north of the front off northeast Florida, expect fresh to
strong winds with moderate to rough seas through the early part
of the week. Elsewhere, high pressure will remain in control of
the general weather pattern providing for a gentle to moderate
anticyclonic wind flow.

$$
Adams