680
AXNT20 KNHC 101818
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Fri Oct 10 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Tropical Systems:
Tropical Storm Jerry is centered near 20.2N 63.4W at 10/1500 UTC
or 120 nm N of the Northern Leeward Islands. It is moving NW at 14
kt and the estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum
sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Seas are peaking
near 20 ft (6 M) just northeast of the center. Heavy rain with
isolated thunderstorms are seen near and up to 130 nm in a
southeast semicircle from the center. Jerry is expected to turn
toward the north this evening, then toward the northeast and east-
northeast Sunday night and Monday. Jerry is forecast to maintain
near its current intensity for the next few days. Swells generated
by Jerry are affecting the Leeward Islands, Windward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico, and are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. These swells are
expected to spread toward the rest of the Greater Antilles today
and tonight. Please consult products from your local weather
office for more information.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS and OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS
issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information.

For the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory on Jerry,
please visit www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Significant Rainfall Across Eastern Mexico:
A slow-moving surface trough will continue to take advantage of
abundant tropical moisture to trigger periodic heavy showers and
isolated thunderstorms through early Saturday morning, across
eastern Mexico along the Bay of Campeche from near the border of
Tamaulipas and San Luis Potosi States southward to central
Veracruz States. Locally heavy downpours can still lead to flash
and urban flooding, especially in low-lying areas and hilly
terrains. Please stay up to date with the latest forecast and
possible flood statements from your local weather agency for
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 40W from 20N southward,
and moving west around 15 kt. Widely scattered moderate
convection is present from 10N to 13N between 33W and 43W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 74W from near the
Windward Passage southward to northern Colombia. It is moving
westward at 5 to 10 kt. Widely scattered thunderstorms are seen
near and south of Jamaica.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 85W from near the
Yucatan Channel southward across Honduras and Nicaragua to
northern Costa Rica. It is moving westward around 10 kt.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring at the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and near the coast of Honduras and
Nicaragua, including the Gulf of Honduras.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of
Senegal and Gambia, then runs southwestward to 08N24W. An ITCZ
continues westward from 08N24W through 09N40W to north of Suriname
at 09N55W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is
evident south of the monsoon trough from 04N to 08N between 19W
and 24W, and up to 150 nm along either side of the ITCZ between
27W and 46W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Caribbean
waters near Panama and northwestern Colombia.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please read the Special Features section on potential heavy rain
across eastern Mexico.

A surface trough meanders southwestward from a 1012 mb frontal low
pressure near Cape Canaveral, FL to western Cuba. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are seen from southern Florida
southward across the Florida Straits to central and western Cuba.
Fresh to strong NE winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft are evident at the
northeastern Gulf. Mostly gentle NE winds and 3 to 4 ft seas
dominate the southwestern Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche.
Moderate to fresh NNE to NE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail
for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, tight pressure gradient between a strong high
pressure over the Mississippi Valley and the aforementioned
frontal low/surface trough will maintain strong winds and rough
seas at the northeastern Gulf into Sat. Conditions will improve
across the Gulf region late Sat and especially Sun as a non-
tropical low pressure lifts northward across the western Atlantic
and a ridge builds across the Gulf. Afterward, the ridge will
sustain mainly a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow and moderate
seas into early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Special Features section on Tropical Storm
Jerry located near the Northern Leeward Islands.

Convergent southerly winds feeding toward Tropical Storm Jerry
are causing scattered heavy showers and isolated strong
thunderstorms across the Lesser Antilles and nearby waters. Refer
to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ, Tropical Waves and Gulf of America
sections for additional weather in the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to
strong southerly winds and seas at 6 to 10 ft dominate waters near
the Leeward and northern Windward Islands. Gentle to moderate
with locally fresh SE to SW winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are
evident at the northwestern and southeastern basin, including the
Gulf of Honduras and waters near the ABC Islands. Light to gentle
winds with 1 to 3 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, fresh to strong southerly winds will continue
to impact the Leeward Islands and the far northeastern Caribbean
through this afternoon. Large E swell will continue to propagate
across the Caribbean passages of the Leeward Islands and the
Anegada Passage today, producing moderate to rough seas. High
pressure will begin to build from the central Atlantic to the
Bahamas late Sun and Mon to bring a return of the trade winds
across the eastern Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section on Tropical Storm
Jerry located near the Northern Leeward Islands.

A stationary front runs west-southwestward from southeast of
Bermuda across 31N70W to a 1012 mb low near Cape Canaveral, FL. A
surface trough meanders southwestward from this low to western
Cuba. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted from
the central Bahamas northward to off northeastern Florida. Farther
east, a broad surface trough reaches southward from southeast of
Bermuda across 31N63W to north of Tropical Storm Jerry near
22N63W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
flaring up north of 23N between 58W and 65W. At the central
Atlantic, a weakening stationary front reaches southwestward from
the north-central Atlantic across 31N32W to near 28N48W. Scattered
showers are found near and up to 175 nm south of this feature.
Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for
additional convection in the Atlantic Basin west of 35W.

Fresh to strong ENE to E winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft are present
near and north of the first stationary front. Gentle to
moderate NE to E to SE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in mixed moderate
to large swells exist south of the front west of 66W. Fresh to
strong ESE to SE winds and 8 to 14 ft seas are noted north of
Tropical Storm Jerry, north of 22N between 57W and 66W. Farther
east, gentle to moderate E to SSE winds and seas at 5 to 8 ft in
moderate to large northerly swells exist north of 21N between 35W
and 57W. South of Jerry, moderate to fresh ENE to SE winds with 6
to 10 ft seas are noted from 09N to 19N between 45W and the
Lesser Antilles. To the east north of 10N between 35W and 45W,
gentle to moderate ENE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are present.
For the remainder of the Atlantic west of 35W, gentle to moderate
S to SE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Storm Jerry will move to
22.1N 63.8W this evening, 24.4N 63.7W Sat morning, and 26.9N
63.2W Sat evening. It will then reach 29.2N 62.7W Sun morning,
30.8N 61.7W Sun evening, and 31.4N 59.7W Mon morning. Jerry will
change little in intensity as it moves to near 30.4N 54.6W early
Tue. The 1012 mb low near Cape Canaveral is forecast to become an
extratropical low pressure system later today and moves
northeastward through the weekend. Fresh to strong NE to E winds
are occurring mainly north of the Bahamas and west of 70W. The
surface trough related to it will also transform into a frontal
trough, producing fresh to strong N to NE winds and building seas
across the Florida coastal waters north of the northwest Bahamas
from Sat through Sun morning.

$$

Chan