907
AXNT20 KNHC 311632
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sat Oct 31 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
W Africa near 18N16W, and continues southwestward to 08N29W,
where it transitions to the ITCZ. The ITCZ then continues to
08N58W. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from
07N to 12N and west of 29W. Similar convection is also depicted
from 06N to 13.5N between 40W and 58W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure over the southeastern
United States and relatively lower pressure to its south is
supporting moderate to fresh east winds and moderate seas across
the northeast and eastern Gulf. Light to gentle winds and seas 2
to 5 ft previal elsewhere. Scattered moderate convection is noted
north of 25N between 86W and 94W in association to a surface
trough.

For the forecast, the winds over the northeast and north-central
Gulf will increase to fresh to strong speeds late tonight and
continue into Mon before diminishing to mostly fresh speeds.
Looking ahead, a cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf Tue
night, and move slowly southeastward reaching the east-central
Gulf by Wed night, followed by mostly fresh northwest to north
winds.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between higher pressure over the Gulf of
America and the western Atlantic, and lower pressure over
Colombia supports fresh to strong trades along with seas of
6 to 9 ft in the south-central Caribbean offshore Colombia.
Moderate to fresh trades and 3 to 6 ft seas prevail across the
remainder of the central and eastern Caribbean. Moderate or weaker
winds and slight seas are elsewhere. Otherwise, scattered
moderate convection is noted over the SW part of the basin in
association with the eastern end of the Pacific monsoon trough.
An upper level trough is supporting isolated moderate convection
over the central Caribbean.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trades over the central and
eastern Caribbean, and moderate to rough seas, will continue
through Mon, with small areas of strong winds near the coast of
Colombia and NW Venezuela. Winds and seas are expected to diminish
basin-wide late Mon through Wed as broad low pressure develops
and then persists across the Atlantic well to the NE of the
Bahamas.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A frontal boundary extends from 31N57.5W to 23.5N69W while high
pressure to its northwest builds southward across the western
Atlantic. A warm front is analyzed from 31N47.5W to 25.5N44.5W. A
trough is ahead of the cold front from 31N54W to 26N59W.
Scattered to numerous moderate convection is along the trough.
Fresh to locally strong SW winds are ahead of the frontal boundary
to near 51W and north of 29N. Seas of 6 to 8 ft are with these
winds. Moderate to fresh north- northeast winds are in the wake of
the front to the east coast of Florida along with seas 6 to 9 ft.
Over the far eastern part of the basin, a cold front extends from
a 1012 mb low that is near 33N20.5W, south- southwestward to
21N41W. Moderate to fresh north to northeast winds are west of the
front to near 40W and north of 23N. Seas are 8 to 13 ft with
these winds. Scattered moderate convection is noted north of 23N
and between 27.5W and the cold front.

For the forecast west of 55W, a tightening gradient between the
cold front over the western Atlantic and the high pressure will
lead to fresh to strong northeast to east winds along with rough
seas, possibly as high as 12 ft, over the waters primarily north
and northeast of the Bahamas into the early part of the upcoming
week. The western Atlantic building high pressure will nudge the
frontal boundary southeastward stalling near 25N Sun and weakening
through Wed.

$$
KRV