457
AXNT20 KNHC 110928
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Sep 11 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Scattered moderate convection is located from 05N-15N between
07W-20W including portions of Liberia, Guinea-Bissau, Senegal,
Gambia and Mali. Based on model guidance, a new tropical wave
follows this convective activity.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 33W, south of 21N, moving
westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
08N-12N between 35W-40W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 73W, south of 21N and extends
southward along the Venezuela-Colombia border, moving westward at
15-20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted west of the wave axis over Colombia and isolated moderate
convection from 17N-19N between 73W-76W..

The axis of a tropical wave is near 81W, south of 20N, moving
westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 14N-19N between 79W-83W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 20N16W, and continues southwestward to 10N44W.
The ITCZ extends from 10N44W to the coast of Guyana near 08N59W.
Aside from convection associated with the tropical wave,
scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N-11N west of 45W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak 1012 mb low pressure is located on the Louisiana near
30N90W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted north of
29N between 85W-89W. Moderate to locally fresh S winds are
occurring north of 20N west of 96W with seas 2-4 ft. Elsewhere,
winds are gentle with seas 1-2 ft.

For the forecast, NE to E winds will pulse to fresh during late
night and early morning hours off the W Yucatan peninsula
beginning Sat night, due to a diurnal trough moving toward the SW
Gulf each evening. Elsewhere, winds will be gentle to moderate for
the next several days due to the influence of a weak high
pressure over the N Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong trades with seas 6-8 ft are occurring over the
central Caribbean between 67W-77W. Elsewhere, winds are gentle to
moderate with seas 2-5 ft. No additional convection is occurring
over the Caribbean beyond that described in the tropical wave
section.

For the forecast, the moderate pressure gradient from ridging
north of the area to the Colombian Low will continue to force
fresh to strong with locally near-gale trades over the central
Caribbean for the next several days. From tonight through Mon
night, trades over the Gulf of Honduras will increase to fresh
with locally strong. Elsewhere, winds will be moderate or weaker.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N45W to 26N52W to 30N73W.
Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 60 NM of the
front. But winds on either side of the front are moderate or
weaker. The pressure-gradient between the 1019 mb Bermuda-Azores
High and lower pressure at the ITCZ and monsoon trough is forcing
moderate to fresh trades with seas of 4-7 ft south of 22N. The
exception is the fresh to locally strong NE winds with seas of 5-8
ft near the NW Africa coast north of 20N and the Canary Islands.
Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas 3-5 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, trades north of Hispaniola
including the approach to the Windward Passage will be fresh to
locally strong through early next week. Elsewhere, the Bermuda-
Azores High situated along 30N should produce only moderate or
weaker winds across the remaining forecast waters for the next
several days.

$$
Landsea/Delgado