557
AXNT20 KNHC 301030
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Aug 30 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1025 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 80W, south of 20N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is
occurring near this wave.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 60W, south of 17N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed south of 12N and west of 55W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 84W, south of 19N,
moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is evident west of 82W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 21N16W and continues southwestward to 06N35W and
to 10N44W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 14N
and east of 20W. Similar convection is seen from 05N to 10N and
between 31W and 45W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front is draped across the northern Gulf coast,
producing a few showers and isolated thunderstorms over the
northern waters. Similar convection is noted in the Florida
Straits and Bay of Campeche. At the surface, a weak high pressure
dominates the region, supporting moderate or weaker winds and
slight seas.

For the forecast, the aforementioned front will linger through
the weekend, then shift southward some as a cold front early next
week as low pressure develops along it and tracks northeastward to
east of the southeastern U.S. coast. The front will help maintain
unsettled weather conditions, with locally hazardous winds and
seas mainly along and just offshore the northern Gulf coast
through the weekend. Some of these conditions may spread southward
some over the offshore waters. The weak gradient in place will
maintain mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to locally
moderate seas through the period.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The subtropical ridge north of the islands continues to sustain
fresh to strong easterly trade winds and moderate to locally rough
seas in the central Caribbean. Moderate or weaker winds and slight
to moderate seas are evident elsewhere in the Caribbean. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen in the SW and NW
Caribbean, as mentioned in the Tropical Waves section.

For the forecast, a tropical wave moving across the western
Caribbean combined with an upper level trough to the north result
in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the area.
Weather conditions will remain unsettled during the weekend.
Another tropical wave is approaching the Lesser Antilles and will
move across the eastern Caribbean this weekend with little
increase in moisture. Otherwise, Atlantic high pressure in
combination with low pressure over northern Colombia will maintain
fresh to strong trades along with moderate to locally rough seas
across much of the central Caribbean through early next week.
Winds will also pulse to strong force at night this weekend in the
Gulf of Honduras.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front stretches from 31N73W to NE Florida. This
feature and an upper level trough to the north combine to produce
scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms west of
75W. Farther east, a couple of surface troughs also produce
scattered showers south and SE of Bermuda. The remainder of the SW
North Atlantic is under the influence of a subtropical ridge that
maintains generally moderate or weaker winds and slight to
moderate seas.

The rest of the tropical Atlantic are dominated by a 1029 mb high
pressure system between the Azores and Nova Scotia. This ridge
forces moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate to rough seas
north of 20N and east of 60W. Strong NE winds and rough seas are
evident off Morocco due to a tighter pressure gradient in the
region. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are
prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, low pressure is expected to form
along the aforementioned front west of the area and track ENE to
offshore the southeastern United States tonight through Mon. As
this happens, the stationary front will transition to a cold front
that will slowly sink southward through late Mon. Behind it,
strengthening high pressure will surge southward along the
southeastern U.S. coast increasing the gradient behind the front
leading to fresh to locally strong NE-E winds N of 29N and W of
79W Sun night into Tue. Expect for the scattered showers and
thunderstorms to continue through the weekend, except into early
next week for the northwest portion of the area. Elsewhere, high
pressure will remain in control of the general weather pattern
providing for a gentle to moderate anticyclonic wind flow.

$$
Delgado