339
AXNT20 KNHC 121737
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun Oct 12 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: The Remnants of Jerry are now north of 31N
and merging with a frontal boundary. However, gale force S to SE
winds continue north of 26N between 59W and 62W, as depicted in
the latest scatterometer data. Scattered moderate convection is
noted in this area of gales. Seas are currently 12-15 ft. Winds
will diminish to near-gale force late tonight, and seas will
subside below 12 ft tomorrow morning.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on
the gale warning.

Invest AL97: A tropical wave located well to the southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Scattered moderate
convection is from 05N to 15N between 32W and 42W. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some development of this system
during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form
during the early or middle part of this week while it moves to the
west- northwest or northwest at 15 to 20 mph across the central
tropical Atlantic. This system has a medium chance of tropical
formation within the next 48 hrs.

Please read the latest TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK issued by the
National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov for more
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION
ABOUT THE TROPICAL WAVE, AL97.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 17N16W to 09N38W. The ITCZ extends from 09N38W to
08N61W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 13N between
20W and 23W. Additional convection is described in SPECIAL
FEATURES associated with AL97.

GULF OF AMERICA...

1012 mb high pressure centered in the far NW Gulf and a clearing
airmass behind the W Atlantic frontal boundary allows for moderate
or weaker winds and slight seas across the basin.

For the forecast, the ridge will dominate the basin through late
this week, resulting in gentle to moderate winds and slight to
moderate seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stalled front crosses far western Cuba. Fresh S winds persist in
the lee of Cuba ahead of the boundary, with scattered showers and
tstorms. Areas of scattered moderate convection are from 11N to
16N between 76W and 82W, and from 11N to 18N between 67W and 72W,
including southern Hispaniola and the ABC Islands. Moderate or
weaker E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas prevail across
the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure over the central Atlantic will
support moderate to locally fresh trade winds and moderate seas
across the eastern Caribbean through mid week. Meanwhile, a weak
pressure pattern will maintain moderate or lighter winds and
slight to moderate seas elsewhere through the forecast period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on the
Gale Warning south of Bermuda and Invest 97W well SW of the Cabo
Verde Islands.

A stalled front, associated with the coastal low off the US East
Coast, extends from 31N73W to far western Cuba. Moderate to fresh
winds are in the vicinity of the front. 8-11 ft seas are north of
25N between 56W and the coast of Florida. Scattered moderate
convection is from 23N to 28N between 71W and 76W. Another frontal
boundary extends from 31N58W to 31N33W. 1017mb low pressure is
along the front near 27N51W; fresh winds are near this low.
Elsewhere in the basin, gentle to moderate trades and 4-7 ft seas
prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front will move southward to
the east of Bermuda Tue into Wed, bringing fresh to strong winds
and rough seas to the waters north of 25N and east of 70W.

$$
Mahoney