938
AXNT20 KNHC 011630
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun Nov 1 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
W Africa near 15N18W, and continues southwestward to 12N23W,
where it transitions to the ITCZ. The ITCZ then continues to
07N39W and to 12N59W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong
convection is seen from 06N to 14N and east of 33W. Scattered
moderate convection from 07N to 14N between 33W and 61.5W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Fresh to strong east winds are over the NE Gulf along with seas
of 4 to 6 ft. An upper-level trough is supporting scattered to
numerous convection north of 24N and east of 88W. This activity
is capable of producing strong gusty winds and heavy rainfall.
Elsewhere, light to gentle NE winds prevail along seas 2 to 4 ft.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
over the SE U.S. and lower pressure over the deep tropics will
maintain fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas through the NE Gulf
through Mon night. A cold front will move into the NW Gulf Tue,
then move slowly E across the basin through Thu night, as high
pressure builds in behind it.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between higher pressure over the U.S. and
the western Atlantic, and lower pressure over Colombia supports
fresh trades along with seas of 5 to 7 ft in the south- central
Caribbean offshore Colombia. Moderate to fresh trades and seas
of 4 to 6 ft are across the remainder of the central and eastern
Caribbean. The eastern end of the Pacific monsoon trough is
supporting a cluster of moderate convection south of 13N and west
79W.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trades along with moderate
seas over the central and eastern Caribbean will continue through
Mon, with locally strong winds and rough seas offshore Colombia.
The pressure gradient will relax starting Mon night as broad low
pressure forms north of the area, leading to overall weaker winds
and diminishing seas through Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from near 31N48W southwestward to 24N70W,
and continues as a trough to 26N82W. Numerous convection is found
along and north of the trough from 24N to 29N and west of 73.
Elsewhere along the cold front, scattered moderate convection is
noted. A secondary cold front extends from 31N58.5W to 30N69W. No
significant convection is presently occurring with this front.
Fresh to strong northeast to east winds along with seas of 7 to 9
ft are northwest of the first front, north of 24N west of 60W.
Farther east, low pressure of 1012 mb is north of the area west
of Madeira near 34N24W, with a cold front extending from it to
31N18W and to near 23.5N25W. An area of scattered moderate
convection is east of this front to the along and inland the coast
of Africa north of 25N. Gentle to moderate north winds and seas
of 7 to 10 ft in north swell are behind the front north of 23N
between 18W and 32W. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4 to 6
ft are elsewhere across the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the fronts will move SE today and
weaken as high pressure builds southward behind it across the
western Atlantic. Widespread fresh to strong NE to E winds and
rough seas develop behind the front Mon N of 26N and W of 60W as
the cold front stalls and the pressure gradient tightens. These
conditions will prevail through Tue night, when the front will
dissipate. The high pressure in the western Atlantic will slide
east Wed into Thu, allowing the next cold front to move offshore
Florida late Thu night.

$$
KRV