866
AXNT20 KNHC 031017
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Wed Dec 3 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 06N11W to
03N27W. The ITCZ stretches from 03N27W to 05N43W to 04N51W.
Scattered moderate convection is observed from 03N to 10N and east
of 33W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front extends from Venice, Florida to 25N87W, where it
becomes stationary and extends to near Veracruz, Mexico. Moderate
to locally fresh winds and moderate seas are found behind the
front, while light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail ahead
of the front. No significant showers or thunderstorms are active
across the Gulf at this time.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will slow down
this morning, while the stationary front lifts northward as
another low pressure system forms over South Texas and the NW
Gulf. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will develop this
afternoon in W Gulf and spread eastward tonight into Thu. Then,
another cold front will enter the NW waters on Thu, and extend
from SE Louisiana to near Tampico, Mexico Fri morning, then stall
and gradually dissipate. Looking ahead, a strong cold front is
likely to sweep across the Gulf late Sun into Mon, bringing strong
N winds over much of the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Divergence aloft supports a few showers over the Lesser Antilles
and nearby waters. Strong showers and isolated thunderstorms are
occurring in the SW Caribbean off Panama and Costa Rica. A weak
pressure gradient across the basin supports moderate to locally
fresh NE winds and moderate seas in the south-central and SW
Caribeban, while light to gentle winds and slight to moderate
seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, building high pressure north of the Caribbean
Sea will support moderate to fresh easterly winds over much of
the basin starting Thu and continuing into early next week.
Meanwhile, moderate to locally rough seas, in NE swell, will
persist across the NE Caribbean passages through the week and into
the weekend. Looking ahead, a cold front may approach the NW
Caribbean early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N78W to Cape Canaveral, Florida. Fresh
to strong SW winds and moderate to rough seas are noted within
180 nm east of the front, with fresh NW winds and 5 to 9 ft
following the front. Another surface trough extends along 68W
south of 28N to Puerto Rico. A few showers and thunderstorms are
noted east of the trough near 23N60W. A ridge axis is noted
between the front and this trough, from Bermuda to central Cuba.
Fresh to strong E to SE winds and 7 to 11 ft seas cover the
remainder of the North Atlantic south of 31N and east of the
trough.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front will extend from near
Bermuda to South Florida later this morning, and from 31N70W to
the Straits of Florida by Thu morning. Meanwhile, fresh to strong
easterly winds and rough seas follow a surface trough currently
located just N of Puerto Rico. The trough will continue to move
westward passing N of Hispaniola today and Thu. Winds and seas in
the wake of the trough are gradually diminishing. Looking ahead, a
cold front will reach the waters off NE Florida Fri resulting in
fresh to locally strong winds N of 29N and west of 75W by Fri
afternoon. These winds and locally rough seas will then shift
eastward into the weekend.

$$
Delgado