904
AXNT20 KNHC 140608
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Tue Oct 14 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0550 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Lorenzo is centered near 16.2N 42.8W at 14/0300
UTC or 1080 nm W of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving NW at 11 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are 21 ft.
Clusters of moderate to strong convection extend from 12N to 19N
between 38W and 43W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere
from 11N to 20N between 35W and 44W. Lorenzo will continue to move
towards the northwest through Tuesday, and turn to the north
Tuesday night. A northeastward motion is expected on Wednesday
and Thursday. Some additional strengthening is forecast during
the next few days. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Lorenzo NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 06N to 16N with axis near 20W, moving
west at 10 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection extends
from 06N to 13N between 18W and 26W.

A tropical wave extends from 03N to 13N with axis near 31W,
moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 03N to 11N between 28W and 38W.

A tropical wave extends from 06N to 16N with axis near 55W,
moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 09N to 13N between 53W and 60W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 11N16W and extends SW to 07N24W. The ITCZ extends
from 07N24W to 06N29W then resumes near 06N32W to 06N44W.
Convection is described above in the Tropical Wave section.

GULF OF AMERICA...

Other than a pair of troughs over the western Gulf, weak ridging
dominates the basin, supporting gentle to moderate NE to E winds
and 1 to 4 ft seas. No significant shower or thunderstorm
activity is observed at this time.

For the forecast, weak ridging will prevail through the forecast
period, resulting in gentle to moderate winds and slight to
moderate seas over much of the Gulf. Winds are expected to
increase to fresh speeds over the eastern and central Gulf Thu
night through Fri night as the pressure gradient tightens some
across the area. Winds will veer to the SE and S toward the end of
the week as high pressure over the SE of the United States shifts
eastward into the western Atlantic.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A frontal system moving across the northern Bahamas is keeping a
weak pressure gradient over the western and central Caribbean,
thus the continuation of light to gentle winds and slight seas.
A surface trough extending from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras
continues to generate heavy showers and tstms from Jamaica to the
Youth Island, Cuba. A scatterometer pass show fresh to strong
winds in areas with the strongest convection. High pressure
centered over the eastern Atlantic is supporting moderate east
winds across the eastern Caribbean where seas are 2 to 4 ft.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support moderate
or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas over much of the
basin through the work week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Tropical Storm Lorenzo in the central Atlantic.

A cold front is analyzed off NE Florida from 30N74W to 27N78W and
is preceded by a surface trough that extends from 30N72W to
25N78W. Farther east, a 1010 mb low is centered near 30N56W with a
trough extending SW to 25N60W. Scatterometer data show moderate to
fresh W to NW winds following the low and the trough. The eastern
subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of a surface ridge
anchored by a 1017 mb high near 23N31W. Elsewhere, N of 20N winds
are moderate or weaker and seas are moderate.

For the forecast, the cold front is forecast to move eastward
across the forecast waters through at least Thu. The front will
reach from 31N70W to western Cuba by Tue morning, from near
Bermuda to central Cuba by Wed morning, and from 31N60W to eastern
Cuba by Thu morning. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are
expected on either side of the front across the waters N of 27N by
Tue night. These marine conditions will shift eastward with the
front through late in the week. Tropical Storm Lorenzo is well E
of the forecast region near 16.2N 42.8W at 14/0300 UTC, moving NW
at 11 kt. Lorenzo will move to 17.4N 43.9W Tue morning, 19.3N
44.5W Tue evening, 21.6N 44.2W Wed morning, 24.3N 41.9W Wed
evening, 26.6N 39.0W Thu morning, and 29.0N 35.0W Thu evening.
Lorenzo will change little in intensity as it moves near 29.0N
28.9W late Fri.

$$
Ramos