858
AXNT20 KNHC 180933
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Aug 18 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0925 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern tropical wave has its axis along 24N, south of 19N,
moving westward at about 10 kt. A few showers are noted near the
wave axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 40W, south of
18N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is
associated with this wave at this time.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 62W, south
of 19N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is observed south of 19N and between 57W and 67W.

A SW Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 80W, south of
20N, moving westward at about 10 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is present south of 15N and west of
75W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

Th monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 11N30W and
to 09N46W. The ITCZ extends from 09N46W to 10N58W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 06N to 15N
and east of 37W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Weak high pressure across the Gulf waters support moderate or
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas across much of the basin.

For the forecast, a weak high pressure pattern will support mostly
gentle to moderate winds across much of the basin. A diurnally
induced surface trough will generate fresh to locally strong winds
north and west of the Yucatan peninsula early each evening. These
winds will spread westward away from the Yucatan at night as the
trough migrates into the SW Gulf. Slight to moderate seas are
expected through the forecast period.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The subtropical ridge centered north of the Caribbean is
supporting moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 5-8
ft across much of the basin, especially south of 18N. Light to
gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are found elsewhere.

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge centered north of the
Caribbean waters will support fresh to strong easterly trade
winds and rough seas across the south-central Caribbean through
much of the forecast period. Moderate to fresh trades and
moderate seas will prevail in the north-central and eastern
Caribbean into the weekend. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds
and slight to moderate seas are expected.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from a 1013 mb low center north of the area
near 37N49W southwestward to 31N51W to 26N63W and northwestward
to 31N71W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
noted ahead of the front. Moderate to fresh SW-S winds and seas of
5-8 ft are noted north of 26N and ahead of the front to 44W. The
remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad
subtropical ridge that sustains moderate or lighter winds and
moderate seas. However, fresh northerly winds and seas of 5-8 ft
are found in the far eastern Atlantic off NW Mauritania and
southern Western Sahara.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will
stall and weaken into a trough today into tonight. Fresh winds in
the vicinity of the front will diminish today. Otherwise, a weak
pressure gradient will support mainly light to gentle winds,
locally moderate, across much of the area N of 22N through the
week and into the weekend. Moderate to locally fresh easterly
winds can be expected S of 22N.

$$
Delgado