811
AXNT20 KNHC 291033
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Aug 29 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1025 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 22W, south of 20N,
moving westward near 5 kt. A large area Saharan Air Layer dust is
evident north and west of the wave. No significant convection is
depicted at this time with the wave.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 52W, south of 15N,
moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from south of 11N and west of 50W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 72W, south of 20N,
moving westward at around 15 kt. No significant convection is
observed near this wave.

The tropical wave previously over the NW Caribbean is now mainly
in the eastern Pacific. For more details, please read the Eastern
Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 09N49W.
Scattered moderate convection is present from 05N to 11N and
between 26W and 44W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure over the eastern United States dominates the Gulf
waters, supporting gentle to moderate easterly winds and seas of
1-3 ft. A stationary front is noted over the northern Gulf coast,
sustaining a few showers in the nearshore waters.

For the forecast, the aforementioned frontal boundary will slide
southward as a cold front today, then remain nearly stationary
through Sun with little change in winds and seas. A weak high
pressure regime will persist in the rest of the Gulf through the
weekend into early next week. Under this weather pattern, mainly
gentle to moderate winds and slight to locally moderate seas will
prevail.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Divergence aloft and tropical moisture result in scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms across the NW Caribbean and along the
coast of Nicaragua. Similar convection is evident in the SE
Caribbean. A strong subtropical ridge forces fresh to strong
easterly winds and moderate to locally rough seas across the
central Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight
to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge combined with the Colombian low
will maintain fresh to strong easterly trade winds, with moderate
to rough seas across much of the central Caribbean through early
next week. The coverage of these winds is forecast to shrink by
Sat. Unsettled weather conditions will persist in the NW Caribbean
today as a tropical wave moves away. Another tropical wave will
move across the central Caribbean today, and across the western
part of the basin on Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front is analyzed from near 31N76W southwestward to
30N81W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen
west of 75W. To the east, scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are occurring north of 22N and between 50W and 70W
due to a couple of surface troughs in that part of the basin. The
remainder of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of a
subtropical ridge centered between the Azores and Nova Scotia.

The pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower
pressures in the deep tropics result in moderate to fresh easterly
winds south of 20N and west of 45W. Seas in these waters are 5-8
ft. Similar winds and moderate seas are also noted north of 20N
and between 70W and 35W. Farther east, fresh to locally strong
NE-E winds and seas of 5-8 ft are evident north of 20N and east of
35W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail
elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front is forecast to reach
the waters off NE Florida today, then stall, and remain nearly
stationary through Sun extending from near Bermuda to N Florida.
Moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate seas are expected in the
wake of the front by Sun. The Atlantic ridge will dominate the
remainder of the forecast region producing a gentle to moderate
anticyclonic flow.

$$
Delgado