751
AXNT20 KNHC 200244
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sun Sep 20 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0040 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 45W from 06N
to 21N, drifting slowly westward. Nearby convection is described
below in the Atlantic section.

A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 82.5W to the S
of 20N to near the border of Costa Rica and Panama, moving slowly
westward around 5 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 13N to 20N between 80W and 83W, with
similar convection over western Panama and Costa Rica.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 14N17W to
07N29W to 10N38W. The ITCZ extends from 10N38W to 12N44W, then
resumes W of a tropical wave from 11N46W to near Trinidad and
Tobago at 11N61W. Aside from convection noted in the Atlantic
section below, scattered moderate convection is noted within
90-180 nm either side of the monsoon trough to the E of 34W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak pressure gradient prevails across the area with a 1011 mb
low pressure area in the W-central Gulf near 24N93W. An E to W
surface trough extends from the Straits of Florida to the low,
with another trough from 27N95W to the low to 21N95W. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms are near the troughs. Gentle to
moderate winds, and slight to moderate seas, prevail N of 24N.
Light to gentle winds and slight seas are found S of 25N.

For the forecast, weak ridging north of the Gulf will maintain
generally gentle to moderate winds across the Gulf for the next
several days. An upper-low and associated surface low/trough over
the central Gulf will contribute to scattered showers and
thunderstorms over mostly the eastern Gulf through the early part
of the week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A relatively weak pressure pattern is across the basin with
surface troughs N of the basin interrupting the typical Azores-
Bermuda highs. Moderate to fresh trades and 4-6 ft seas are found
from 11N to 18N between 67W and 79W, with gentle to moderate winds
and 2-4 ft seas elsewhere. Some convection is occurring near a
tropical wave near 82W as described above, with additional
moisture from the NW Caribbean northeastward due to a mid to upper
level jet.

Fresh to locally strong winds and moderate seas prevail over the
south central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas
are elsewhere E of 80W. Light to gentle winds and slight to
moderate seas are found W of 80W.

For the forecast, a moderate pressure gradient between high
pressure north of the area and the Colombian Low will maintain
fresh to locally strong trades over the S central Caribbean for
the next several days. A vigorous upper-level low will promote
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the W
Caribbean for at least the next two days.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The Atlantic waters N of 21N are dominated by several troughs.
The first one is from the central Bahamas northeastward to
29N72W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is in the
vicinity of this trough mainly from 21N to 26N between 69W and 78W.
Farther east, another trough extends from 31N60W to 24N50W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is in the
vicinity of this trough mainly from 20N to 25N between 50W and 44W.
A third trough is from 31N42W and 23N48W. A tropical wave is near
this trough to the south along 45W. These two features support
scattered moderate to strong convection from 17N to 30N between
38W and 45W. Meanwhile, a weak surface low is near 15N52W along a
trough from 12N to 17N. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
present within 90 nm in the E quadrant of the low. A weak pressure
gradient dominates the Atlantic, with light to gentle winds N of
10N and W of 45W, except moderate to fresh near northern
Hispaniola. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are
4-6 ft S of 20N and E of 50W, and also N of 20N and E of 35W. Seas
of 3-4 ft prevail across the remainder of the waters.


For the forecast west of 55W, a weak pressure gradient will
promote only gentle to moderate winds across forecast waters for
the next several days. A vigorous upper-level low and abundant
tropical moisture will force scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms for the waters west of 65W for at least the next two
days.

$$
Lewitsky