816
AXNT20 KNHC 140744
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Jun 14 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0730 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 28W, south of 16N, and
just SW of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving westward around 10 kt.
A few showers are observed near the wave axis.

Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 37W, from the Mona
Passage south of 18N to western Venezuela, moving westward at
10-15 kt. A few showers are observed near the wave axis.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 68.5W, south of 17N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. A few showers are present near the
wave axis, with a large cluster of deep thunderstorms ahead of the
wave over NW Venezuela and portions of Colombia.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 85W, south of 18N,
extending across eastern Honduras, Nicaragua and western Costa
Rica, into the eastern Pacific. The wave is moving westward at
around 10 kt. A few showers near the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 08N30W. The
ITCZ extends from 08N30W to 06N35W, then resumes W of a tropical
wave near 05N39W to the coast of Brazil at 02N51W. No significant
convection is evident along the monsoon trough or ITCZ, except
near the coast of Brazil from the Equator to the ITCZ, W of 48W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

An upper level trough extends from the central United States
southward across Texas and NE Mexico, and the adjacent Gulf
waters, and is providing unstable conditions to the east of the
trough. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted in the
northern Gulf waters. At the surface, a surface trough is
analyzed in the SW Gulf west of the Yucatan Peninsula with
scattered thunderstorms south of 22N. The rest of the Gulf is
mainly influenced by the western periphery of the Atlantic
subtropical ridge, extending westward across Florida and into the
central Gulf. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower
pressures in Mexico result in moderate to fresh SE winds over much
of the western and central Gulf waters. Seas in the area
described are 3-5 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
slight seas prevail, locally 3-5 ft in the Straits of Florida.

For the forecast, Atlantic ridging will extend westward across
the Gulf through the next several days. Fresh northeast to east
winds are expected each afternoon and evening north of the Yucatan
Peninsula and into the eastern Bay of Campeche as a trough
develops daily and moves westward. Moderate to fresh southeast
winds are forecast elsewhere in the western and south- central
Gulf, with gentle to moderate winds across the remainder of the
basin.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The eastern portion of the eastern Pacific Ocean monsoon trough
extends from Costa Rica into the SW Caribbean through a 1010 mb
low pressure area near 11N81W to the coast of Colombia near
10.5N75W. Scattered thunderstorms are present near the low.

The pressure gradient between the subtropical Atlantic high
pressure centered just east of Bermuda and lower pressure over
Colombia and the SW Caribbean continues to support fresh to
locally strong easterly trade winds across the eastern and
central Caribbean, and near the Gulf of Honduras. Seas in these
waters are 5-9 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight
to moderate seas are prevalent, except locally fresh winds through
the Windward Passage.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure N
of the basin and relatively lower pressures in the Caribbean and
in northern South America will maintain fresh to strong trades and
moderate to rough seas over most of the central and west-central
Caribbean through the forecast period. Winds will pulse to fresh
to strong speeds near the Gulf of Honduras during the evening and
overnight hours, with greater coverage of these winds expected to
begin on Mon, with passage of a tropical wave. Moderate to fresh
winds will prevail elsewhere, except in the lee of Cuba and the SW
Caribbean where gentle to moderate winds are expected through
early next week. Mostly fresh trades will remain over the Tropical
N Atlantic zones through early next week. Moderate to locally
rough seas with these winds will gradually subside through
tonight.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section above for information on
tropical waves present in the basin.

The broad subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic dominates
the tropical Atlantic waters. The pressure gradient between the
ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics support moderate to
fresh easterly winds south of 22N and west of 40W, including
through the Windward Passage. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. In
the eastern Atlantic, moderate to locally strong N-NE winds and
seas of 6-9 ft are noted north of 20N and east of 20W. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, surface ridging will be the main
feature controlling the wind regime across the region into next
week, keeping fairly benign marine conditions. Pulsing fresh to
locally strong winds are expected north of Hispaniola to near 22N
during each late afternoon and at night through early next week.

$$
Lewitsky