921
AXNT20 KNHC 152258
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sun Nov 16 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains inland over Africa. The ITCZ extends
from 10N15W to 06N25W to 09N55W to 09N60W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 06N to 10N between 20W and 30W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

1018 mb high pressure centered over Atlantic waters off northeast
Florida provides for light to gentle E winds and 1-3 ft seas
across the basin, except in the Yucatan Channel where seas are 3-5
ft.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds will
dominate the basin as high pressure moves from Florida toward the
SE Gulf on Sun. The ridge will slide a bit east for the start of
next week, allowing southeasterly winds to become more dominate,
reaching fresh to strong speeds across the western Gulf by the
middle of next week. Moderate to rough seas are expected with
these winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A few showers and thunderstorms are along the monsoon trough over
the far southwest Caribbean, mainly off Panama. Fresh winds are
reported by scatterometer satellite in the lee of Cuba, with 3-5
ft seas. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trades and 3-5 ft seas
prevail across the basin.

For the forecast, a surface trough will meander offshore Honduras and
Nicaragua through Sun, helping to induce some shower and
thunderstorm activity. Fresh NE to E winds S of Cuba and offshore
Colombia will diminish by tonight as a weak pressure gradient
takes hold over the basin. This will result in an extended period
of mainly gentle to moderate trade winds across the basin for the
first half of next week. Long period NE swell will propagate across
the NE Caribbean, and waters E of the Lesser Antilles Sun into
Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N50W to the southern Bahamas.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are along the front north of
24N. Earlier scatterometer satellite data indicated moderate or
weaker winds near the front. Pair of 1011 mb low pressures are
centered near 12N45W and 12N38W. The scatterometer indicated
moderate or weaker winds near these low pressures. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and 4-7 ft seas prevail across the basin.
North of 27N, seas exceed 8 ft due to mixed swells generated
north of the area.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will
stall by tonight from near 27N55W to north of Hispaniola, where
it will gradually dissipate Sun into Mon. Expect fresh to strong
SW to W winds and building seas across the waters north of 29N
Sun, ahead of a cold front forecast to reach the northern part of
the forecast region Mon. The front will likely reach from 31N60W
to just N of the NW Bahamas on Tue. Rough seas, in mainly
northerly swell, will periodically impact waters N of 28N through
early next week.

$$
Christensen