624
AXNT20 KNHC 080946
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon Jun 8 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has emerged off the west coast of Africa. Its
axis extends is long 17W, south of 11N. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are near the northern end of the wave axis.

A new tropical wave was added to the 0600 UTC surface map along
23W, south of 11N based on satellite imagery and wave diagnostic.
Scattered moderate convection is near the wave axis.

A tropical wave is along 32W, south of 10N, moving westward at 15
to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to
08N between 30W and 36W.

Another tropical wave is along 42W, south of 11N, moving westward
at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is where the wave
meets the ITCZ, from 03N to 06N between 40W and 47W.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean Sea near 78W, south
of 19N, moving westward at around 15 kt. The wave is interacting
with an upper-level low centered south of Jamaica. This system is
helping to induce scattered moderate convection over the majority
of the central Caribbean, including western Venezuela and northern
Colombia.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains over Africa. The ITCZ extends from the
coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 05N30W to the coast of Brazil
near 03N51W. Most of the convective activity across the area is
associated with the above mentioned tropical waves.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The Atlantic high pressure extends westward across Florida into
the Gulf region supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds east
of 90W, with seas 1 to 3 ft, while moderate to locally fresh SE
winds and seas 3 to 5 ft prevail west of 90W. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are noted along the coast of Mexico and adjacent
waters as well as over the western Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf region
through Fri supporting gentle to moderate east to southeast winds
over the eastern Gulf, and moderate to locally fresh winds in the
western Gulf. Slight to moderate seas will prevail. The exception
will be off the Yucatan Peninsula, where a diurnal trough will
support moderate winds to pulse to fresh, occasionally strong,
during the evenings through at least Wed. Looking ahead, a trough,
or low pressure, may emerge from the Yucatan Peninsula into the
Bay of Campeche, perhaps from late Thu through Fri night accompanied
by numerous showers and thunderstorms along with fresh to strong
winds and building seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean. Please see the
Tropical Waves section above for more details, including any
associated significant convection.

Otherwise, high pressure north of the area centered SW of the
Azores extends a ridge to the SE Bahamas. This pattern supports
moderate to locally fresh E to SE trade winds and moderate seas to
6 ft across the majority of the basin. An upper-level low located
south of Jamaica is helping to induce scattered showers and
thunderstorms over most of the central Caribbean. Elsewhere, patches
of low level clouds, embedded in the trade wind flow, are noted
producing isolated to scattered passing showers.

For the forecast, as the pressure gradient tightens further between
the Atlantic ridge and a broad area of low pressure located over
the eastern Pacific offshore of Central America, expect an increase
of the trade winds to fresh to strong speeds, with moderate to
rough seas starting this evening in the north-central and NW
Caribbean and lasting through the rest of the period. In addition,
a trough, or low pressure, may emerge from the Yucatan Peninsula
into the Bay of Campeche perhaps from late Thu through Fri night
keeping a tight pressure gradient over the NW Caribbean, including
the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds and mostly
moderate seas will prevail.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Four tropical waves are moving westward between the western coast
of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Please refer to the Tropical
Waves section for details, including any related significant
convection.

A surface trough extends from 28N72W to the central Bahamas into
eastern Cuba. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
near the trough axis. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast area
is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge, anchored by a 1033 mb
high pressure situated SW of the Azores near 36N31W. Under the
influence of this system, a gentle to moderate E to SE flow with
moderate seas is seen N of 20N E of the trough to about 40W.
Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds and moderate to rough seas
are found north of 16N and east of 40W, including the Canary
Islands. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas are elsewhere
S of 20N between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned trough will remain
nearly stationary through the early part of the week. A weak cold
front will move across the N waters Tue, then stall near 27N through
Wed, gradually dissipating by Thu. High pressure in the wake of
the front will shift eastward north of the area through the end of
the week while weakening, with the associated ridge extending toward
Florida and southeastern Georgia. The related pressure gradient will
generally allow for gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate
seas. Increasing moisture resulting in unsettled weather conditions
is likely to impact the far western section of the basin during the
week.

$$
GR