629
AXNT20 KNHC 151632
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun Jun 15 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1620 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 36W, south of 15N,
moving westward around 10-15 kt. No significant convection is
associated with this wave at this time.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 46W, south of 15N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is
associated with this wave at this time.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 76W, from 19N
southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. A few showers are noted
near the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and continues
southwestward to 05N23W. Segments of the ITCZ extend from 05N23W
to 07N34W, 07N38W to 06N45W, and 05N48W to the coast of French
Guiana. No significant convection is noted near the boundaries at
this time.

GULF OF AMERICA...

Pop-up showers and tstorms are evident in the NE Gulf waters. A
surface trough, a few showers, and locally fresh SE winds are in
the Bay of Campeche. Ridging associated with subtropical Atlantic
high pressure prevails across the Gulf, supporting gentle to
moderate SE winds and 3-5 ft seas.

For the forecast, fresh to strong E to NE winds will pulse each
afternoon and evening through the week north of the Yucatan
Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of Campeche as a diurnal trough
develops and treks westward across the region. Otherwise, ridging
over the western Atlantic will maintain moderate S to SE winds and
moderate seas over the central and western Gulf through the
middle of the week, with gentle to moderate SE winds and slight to
moderate seas in the eastern basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate convection is from the coast of Panama north to
14N and west of 80W, including coastal regions of Nicaragua. Fresh
to strong trades were detected by satellite scatterometer data
across the central and southwest Caribbean and the Gulf of
Honduras. Seas in these winds range from 6-9 ft, with peak seas in
the SW Caribbean off the coast of Colombia. Elsewhere in the
Caribbean Sea, moderate trades and 4-6 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds are expected to
pulse across the central and west-central Caribbean through the
middle of the week as a strong pressure gradient prevails between
high pressure to the north and low pressure in the south-central
Caribbean. Rough seas in E swell are likely in this region. Fresh
to strong E to SE winds will also occur each night and morning in
the Gulf of Honduras, and these winds will expand through much of
the northwestern Caribbean early in the week after the passage of
a tropical wave. Elsewhere, rough seas in E swell will occur east
of the Lesser Antilles and through the passages into the eastern
Caribbean into today. Otherwise, mainly moderate winds and seas
are expected across the rest of the basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The subtropical ridge continues to dominate the tropical Atlantic
waters. Moderate or weaker trades and 4-7 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh trade winds will
pulse south of 25N through the middle of the week as high pressure
prevails over the central Atlantic. At the same time, strong
winds will be possible just north of Hispaniola. Elsewhere,
moderate S to SW winds will pulse offshore of Florida into the
middle of the week as low pressure prevails over the eastern
United States. Otherwise, mainly gentle to moderate winds and
moderate seas are expected elsewhere north of 25N through the
week.

$$
Mahoney