978
AXNT20 KNHC 010955
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Oct 1 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0925 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 10N36W. A
surface trough is analyzed along 41W, south of 18N. The ITCZ
extends from 11N43W to the coast of Guyana near 07N59W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 08N to 15N
and between 25W and 37W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A moderate pressure gradient between a subtropical ridge over the
western Atlantic and lower pressures in Texas and Mexico support
moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas across much of
the basin. Divergence aloft and abundant moisture combine to
produce a few showers and isolated thunderstorms over the SE Gulf
waters, while drier conditions are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the storm activity over the SE Gulf will spread
over much of the basin over the next few days. A moderate
pressure gradient between high pressure over the western Atlantic
and lower pressures over Texas and Mexico result in moderate to
fresh easterly winds and moderate seas across the Gulf waters. The
gradient will weaken from west to east Fri into the weekend as a
frontal boundary approaches the western Gulf waters and a trough
forms over the central Gulf. The front may move into the basin by
the end of the weekend with weakening winds and subsiding seas
ahead of it. Increasing winds and building seas are possible
behind the drifting front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A middle to upper level low over the Yucatan Peninsula is drawing
abundant moisture from the E Pacific into the W Caribbean, which
continues to fuel scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms W
of 75W. Meanwhile, a surface trough over the eastern Caribbean is
producing some shower activity in the area.

High pressure north of the area is supporting moderate to fresh
easterly trade winds across much of the Caribbean and moderate
seas. Winds pulse to strong speeds off NW Colombia and in the
Gulfs of Venezuela and Honduras.

For the forecast, divergence aloft and abundant tropical moisture
will support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms W of
75W over the next few days. High pressure north of the area will
support pulsing fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the
central Caribbean and in the Gulf of Honduras into Sat night.
Moderate or weaker winds will prevail in the rest of the basin.
Later, a frontal boundary will slide into the Gulf of America and
western Atlantic this weekend, resulting in a weakening pressure
gradient across the Caribbean as the ridge retreats. Moderate to
locally fresh winds will then dominate the basin into early next
week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Divergence aloft and abundant moisture continues to sustain
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms west of 70W.
Meanwhile, the remnants of Fay are interacting with an upper-level
low to produce showers and isolated thunderstorms from 22N to 27N
and between 53W and 63W. Moderate to occasionally strong easterly
winds and seas of 6-8 ft are found in the area described.
Elsewhere west of 55W, high pressure dominates forcing moderate to
fresh easterly winds and slight to moderate seas south of 27N.
Light to gentle winds and seas of 2-5 ft are noted north of 27N.

In the rest of the tropical Atlantic, moderate to locally fresh
easterly winds prevail west of 25W. Seas of 6-8 ft are evident
north of 24N and east of 55W, while mainly moderate seas are
occurring elsewhere west of 25W. A tighter pressure gradient in
the eastern Atlantic supports moderate to locally fresh northerly
winds and seas of 4-8 ft east of 25W.

For the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms will remain possible across the waters west of 70W
through at least Fri. Meanwhile, a weakening surface trough,
associated with the remnants of Fay, will support similar storm
activity over the next few days as it moves westward between
Bermuda and the NE Caribbean. A broad ridge will persist across
the region into the weekend supporting moderate to locally fresh
easterly winds and moderate seas south of 25N. Winds will pulse to
strong speeds off N Hispaniola this evening and tonight. Moderate
or weaker winds will prevail elsewhere. Looking ahead, a frontal
boundary may reach the waters off NE Florida late this weekend
into early next week, resulting in increasing winds and building
seas behind the drifting boundary.

$$
Delgado