686
AXNT20 KNHC 221714
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Tue Sep 22 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy Rainfall in Central America, Jamaica, and Cuba: A middle to
upper-level trough currently extends over the NW Caribbean while
relatively warm sea surface temperatures are present. In addition,
a Central American Gyre looks to form over the next several days.
All of these factors will lead to enhanced moisture funneling
into Central America and the Caribbean, supporting heavy rainfall
today through the 26th. There is still some uncertainty regarding
the exact location of heaviest rainfall, but for now heavy
rainfall looks likely across extreme SE Mexico near Chiapas,
southern and central Guatemala, western Honduras, El Salvador,
southern and eastern Belize, as well as across portions of Costa
Rica and Panama. Currently, heavy rainfall is ongoing over western
Jamaica and into western Cuba as numerous moderate to strong
convection is seen in the NW Caribbean N of 14N and W of 78W.
Heavy rainfall in these regions will raise concerns for life-
threatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to local
weather services as well as the International Desk at the Weather
Prediction Center for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 33W/34W from
06N to 19N, moving westward at around 10 kt. No significant
convection is noted with this wave.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed from 21N48W to
07N54W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are active near the southern end of this tropical
wave from 07N to 11N between 54W and 58W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near
12N16W west-southwestward to 10N40W. The ITCZ is analyzed from
10N40W to 08N50W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
noted from 05N to 13N and E of 21W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A very weak pressure gradient prevails across the area generating
light to gentle winds and slight seas across the Gulf. An upper-
level trough over the eastern Gulf is supporting scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms over the Florida Straits and the
eastern Gulf.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will generate gentle
to moderate winds across the Gulf through Thu. An upper- level
trough will support scattered showers and thunderstorms over the
SE Gulf and the Straits of Florida for at least the next two days.
A cold front is forecast to move into the NE Gulf Thu night and
Fri, with little to no increase in the winds.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for information
on convection in the NW Caribbean.

Outside of convection, a weak pressure pattern is across the
basin. Moderate to fresh trades along with 3-6 ft seas remain
east of 80W. Light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail west
of 80W.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will generate moderate
to fresh trades over the S central Caribbean, and gentle to
moderate winds elsewhere. An upper- level trough will support
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the W
Caribbean for at least the next two days.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

For awareness, Tropical Depression Fay is centered near 31.1N
34.6W at 22/1500 UTC or 560 nm SW of the Azores, moving SW at 9
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Please read the
latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center
at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
the latest Fay NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain active across the
Bahamas, off the coast of Florida, and between the Bahamas and
Bermuda, west of 65W. This activity is due to ample deep layer
moisture and upper level divergence southeast of an upper trough
over the Gulf. Another upper low is centered farther east near
25N50W, interacting with several surface troughs in the central
Atlantic to support widely scattered showers and thunderstorms N
of 20N between 40W and 60W. Another surface trough is analyzed E
of the Lesser Antilles, with scattered moderate convection along
the trough axis. Outside of convection, a rather weak pressure
gradient across much of the Atlantic supports mostly gentle to
moderate trades. Seas of 3 to 6 ft are occurring with these
trades.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weak pressure gradient will
support gentle to moderate trades across forecast waters through
Wed night. An upper- level trough will produce scattered showers
and thunderstorms west of 65W for the next couple of days. A cold
front will move off the SE United States coast late Wed night and
extend from 31N72W to the NW Bahamas Fri morning and from 31N69W
to the central Bahamas Sat morning. Fresh to strong winds and
increasing seas will follow the front on Thu and Fri, before
decreasing on Sat.

$$
Adams