600
AXNT20 KNHC 291711
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Tue Sep 29 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Fay is centered near 24.2N 47.3W at 29/1500
UTC or 1330 nm WSW of the Azores, moving SW at 10 kt, and this
motion is expected to continue over the next several days.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Little change in strength
is forecast, and Fay is forecast to become a post- tropical
cyclone on Wednesday.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Fay
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean with axis near 77W, south
of 18N into northwestern Colombia, moving west at 10 kt. Numerous
moderate to strong convection is along and ahead of the wave from
12N to 18N between 75W and 84W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 19N16W to 22N27W to 07N42W. The
ITCZ extends from 07N42W to the coast of Guyana near 07N59W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 16N between
25W and 40W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Numerous moderate convection is occurring over the SE Gulf S of
28N and E of 90W, supported by a surface trough analyzed from the
Bay of Campeche to near 25N88W and another surface trough along
the eastern Yucatan Peninsula. High pressure over northern Mexico
against lower pressure across the Gulf is supporting gentle to
moderate SE winds over the western half of the basin, and light to
gentle winds along with slight to moderate elsewhere.

For the forecast, a frontal trough extending from near Tampa Bay,
Florida to near Veracruz, Mexico supports scattered showers and
thunderstorms near the axis. This feature will gradually dissipate
through the evening as high pressure builds in. Gentle to
moderate return flow will prevail, except moderate to locally
fresh over the western Gulf tonight. Winds will increase to
moderate to locally fresh across the basin by Wed evening as the
pressure gradient tightens. The gradient will weaken from west to
east by the end of the week into the weekend as a front approaches
the western portion, possibly moving into the basin by the end of
the weekend with weakening winds and subsiding seas ahead of it.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Tropical Waves section above for details on
convection in the SW Caribbean.

Deep layer troughing continues to support scattered moderate
convection over the far NW Caribbean N of 20N and W of 80W,
including western Cuba and the Isle of Youth. Weak high pressure
has drifted to near 28N60W, tightening the pressure gradient. This
is supporting moderate trades across the E Caribbean and moderate
to fresh winds as well as moderate seas over the central basin,
including offshore NW Colombia. In the Gulf of Honduras, moderate
to fresh SE winds and moderate seas are ongoing. Seas of 2-5 ft
prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, winds will pulse to fresh to strong in the
central Caribbean and near the Gulf of Honduras through the
remainder of the week. Winds may weaken there by the weekend as
the pressure gradient relaxes slightly. Moderate to locally fresh
trades will prevail elsewhere, except gentle to moderate in the SW
Caribbean and the Lee of Cuba. Moderate seas will dominate the
basin, except slight in areas of weakest winds.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
Tropical Depression Fay.

Deep layer troughing and abundant low-level moisture continue to
fuel scattered showers and thunderstorms across across the
offshores between Bermuda and the Bahamas. A surface trough
analyzed from 11N52W to 20N58W also supports scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms along and near the trough axis. A 1019 mb
high is SE of Bermuda near 28N60W, supporting moderate or weaker
winds across the region. Seas are generally moderate across the SW
N Atlantic waters. Otherwise, the remnants of Gonzalo are
supporting gentle to moderate winds NW of the Cape Verde Islands,
and a cold front extends from 31N23W to 27N31W. Gentle to moderate
trades prevail across much of the remaining Atlantic waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms will persist across the Bahamas offshores as a
trough lingers in the region through midweek. High pressure SE of
Bermuda will continue to build over the western Atlantic and
support moderate to fresh easterly winds south of 25N Wed through
Fri. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the basin
by the weekend as the gradient weakens slightly. Meanwhile, the
remnants of Tropical Depression Fay currently east of the offshore
waters may move west of 55W by Wed night. Slight to moderate seas
will dominate through the forecast period.

$$
Adams