270
AXNT20 KNHC 021823
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu Jan 2 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1800 UTC.

*Corrected to add the West Atlantic Gale and Significant Swell
 Event Special Feature*

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A 992 mb complex low
pressure is located north of the area near 38N36W. A new cold
front is entering the waters from 31N34W to 27N40W to 31N46W. A
surface trough associated with the remnants of a stationary front
runs from 31N27W to 11N55W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted along and within 200 nm of the trough north
of 22N. This pattern continues to support rough to very rough seas
across the central Atlantic, with 12 to 15 ft seas noted north of
26N between 30W and 50W. The low pressure will move little over
the next couple of days, and will support N swell and seas in
excess of 12 ft north of 27N between 25W and 50W into Fri before
subsiding into Sat. Looking ahead, farther west, a gale center
moving off the U.S. east coast may support additional rough to
very rough seas by Sat between the northeast Florida coast and
Bermuda.

West Atlantic Gale and Significant Swell Event: Another cold
front will move off the Southeast US coast late Fri. Strong to
near-gale force winds and rough seas will accompany the front
mainly north of 26N Fri night, likely reaching gale force with
very rough seas by early Sat morning, and continuing through Sat
evening over the offshore waters between 60W and 75W. Winds will
further diminish Sun in most areas, as high pressure builds
eastward behind the front as it exits to the east of region.

For more details on the marine conditions, please refer to the
latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center at the website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the coast of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W and continues to 05N18W. The ITCZ continues
from 05N18W to 01N35W to 00N48W. Scattered moderate convection is
along and within 100 nm of the ITCZ from 23W to 36W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak cold front continues to push across the Gulf of Mexico,
extending from the coast of western Cuba to near Brownsville,
Texas. Gentle to moderate winds mostly prevail across the basin.
Seas are mostly 3 to 5 ft, with up to 6 ft near the Yucatan
Channel. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are active
near a trough along the coast of Mexico between Veracruz and
Tampico.

For the forecast, the tail of a weak cold front reaching from
western Cuba to the northern Yucatan Peninsula adjacent waters
near 23N90W will move south of the basin today while a connecting
stationary front continuing to the southern tip of Texas will
dissipate. A reinforcing front will enter the northern Gulf late
Fri. The eastern portion will move across the eastern Gulf through
Sat, while the western half stalls over the northwest Gulf, then
lifts north as a warm front Sat night. Fresh to strong S winds and
rough seas will follow the warm front over the northwest Gulf
into Sun. Looking ahead, a stronger cold front will move into the
northwest Gulf Sun night, and exit the southeast Gulf through Mon
night followed by fresh to strong winds and rough seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate convection associated with the eastern Pacific
monsoon trough is noted off the coasts of eastern Honduras,
Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, and Colombia. Fresh to strong NE
winds are pulsing off the 1009 mb Colombia Low, where seas may be
reaching 8 ft. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are noted
elsewhere with 3 to 5 ft seas.

For the forecast, a cold front moving through the SE Gulf of
Mexico and W Cuba will move into the NW Caribbean and stall today,
before dissipating Fri. High pressure building north of the area
behind the front will support fresh NE winds across the basin late
today, with locally strong winds pulsing offshore of Colombia.
Fresh to strong NE winds and accompanying rough seas will occur
across the northwestern and north-central Caribbean on Sat, ahead
of another front moving through the western Atlantic and eastern
Gulf of Mexico. Looking ahead, the winds and seas will diminish
Sun into Mon as the high pressure shifts eastward ahead of the
next cold front moving through the Gulf of Mexico.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for details about the
significant swell event in the central Atlantic.

In the western Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N65W across
the Bahamas to northern Cuba. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds
are behind the front. Moderate to fresh E to NE winds are also
observed west of the surface trough mentioned in the Special
Features section between 10N and 20N. Another area of moderate to
fresh E winds is occurring E of 25W to the African coast between
12N and 22N. The remainder of the basin is seeing gentle to
moderate E flow and moderate seas due to ridging and a relatively
weak pressure gradient across much of the Atlantic. Two
additional areas of scattered moderate convection are noted: one
off the NE coast of Venezuela, and the other from 09N to 11N
between 25W and 36W.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extending from SE of
Bermuda to western Cuba will weaken as it moves eastward today,
reaching a position from 31N60W to central Cuba by this evening.
The front will stall and dissipate through late Fri, ahead of a
reinforcing cold front expected to move off the NE Florida coast
late Fri. Strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas will
accompany the front mainly north of 26N Fri night, likely reaching
gale force with very rough seas early Sat morning through Sat
evening over the offshore waters between 60W and 75W. Winds will
further diminish Sun in most areas as high pressure builds
eastward behind the front as it exits to the east of region.
Looking ahead, fresh to strong southerly winds will return to the
waters off NE Florida and north of the Bahamas Sun night into Mon
ahead of the next cold front expected to move off the coast by
late Mon.

$$
Adams