396
AXNT20 KNHC 141028
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Nov 14 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W to 07N22W. The
ITCZ has formed from 07N22W to 08N27W and then continues from
08N40W to 06N57W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of
the eastern segment of the ITCZ to 02N.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1023 mb high pressure is centered near 29N87W. Fresh NE winds
and moderate seas reach from the Straits of Florida to the
Yucatan Channel, between this high pressure and lower pressure
over the Caribbean. Gentle to moderate NE winds and slight seas
are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure centered over the northeast Gulf
will weaken and slide southward into the SE Gulf into the weekend.
This will cause moderate to fresh NE to E winds in the Florida
Straits to Yucatan Channel to diminish today, leaving the basin
with moderate or weaker winds through the weekend. For next week,
moderate to fresh return southerly flow will develop over the
western Gulf, as the high remains centered east of the area.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is inducing scattered moderate convection in the
Gulf of Honduras. Fresh NE winds are noted in the NW Carribean, N
of 18N. Fresh trades are also ongoing offshore Colombia. Moderate
trades prevail over the central Caribbean, with mainly gentle
winds elsewhere. Moderate seas dominate the basin this morning.

For the forecast, fresh NE winds S of Cuba will gradually
diminish into tonight as high pressure to the N weakens. Fresh to
locally strong NE to E winds offshore Colombia and Venezuela
tonight will also weaken the overall gradient decreases, and a
gentle to moderate trade wind regime becomes established for the
weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Gale-force westerly winds have ended over the far eastern
Atlantic, but strong winds will prevail today offshore Morocco,
extending west across Madeira and to around 30W, N of 32N.

A stationary front extends from near 31N53W to N of Hispaniola.
This front is weakening, and winds are mainly moderate to locally
fresh N and W of the boundary, and light to gentle to the S and E
of E. Moderate seas prevail on both sides of it, but northerly
swell is leading to some rough seas N of 29N on either side of the
boundary. To the E of 50W, these rough seas extend S to around
25N. Tradewinds are relatively modest this morning, with gentle to
moderate E winds dominating waters S of 22N.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will slowly
dissipate through tonight. A cold front will enter northern waters
later today, then track to near 31N55W to N of Hispaniola Sat,
before stalling. The boundary will then dissipate by the start of
next week. Winds toward 30N will increase behind the front, reach
fresh to locally strong speeds by Sun into Mon. Rough seas in
mainly northerly swell will periodically impact waters N of 28N
through early next week.

$$
Konarik