884
AXNT20 KNHC 122156
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu Nov 13 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2140 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Rainfall over Central America:
A frontal boundary has stalled from the Turks and Caicos Islands,
southwestward across extreme eastern Cuba to the N coast of
Honduras. Fresh to strong N to NE winds prevail north of the
front. This scenario is producing strong and moist onshore flow,
particularly into the northern coast of Honduras and NE Nicaragua,
leading to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Scattered moderate
to strong convection is occurring in the western Caribbean,
generally west of 80W and south of 18N. A middle to upper level
ridge will extend into the W Caribbean and Central America by
Thursday, weakening the frontal boundary and leading to less
precipitation over eastern Honduras. The boundary will then slowly
move northward, leading to heavy precipitation over northern
Belize and southern Quintana Roo-Mexico from Thursday into Friday
morning. Meanwhile, a lower level trough will continue to produce
heavy precipitation over Nicaragua and Costa Rica through Friday,
with the heaviest rainfall occurring during the afternoon hours on
Thursday and Friday. This rainfall is likely to result in life-
threatening flash flooding and landslides. This information was
provided by the International Desk at the Weather Prediction
Center.

Please refer to your local meteorological service for more
details.

Agadir Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a strong
stationary low in the NE Atlantic and higher pressures over N
Africa and N Italy will lead to sustained strong to near-gale
force SW winds offshore Agadir later this evening and overnight.
Gusts exceeding gale force can be expected, and Meteo-France has
issued a Gale Warning for the Agadir zone from 13/03 UTC through
at least 13/18 UTC.

For more information, please refer to Meteo-France`s website at:
http://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/2.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N16W to 09N35W to 07N40W. The
ITCZ continues from that point to 06N55W. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring from 06N to 09N and E of 20W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A ridge extends from 1028 mb high pressure over the northeastern
Gulf near 29N87W toward Tampico, Mexico. A recent scatterometer
satellite pass indicated fresh S winds north of ridge along the
coast of Texas, and fresh to strong NE winds over the Straits of
Florida. Gentle to moderate breezes are noted elsewhere. Wave
heights are 5 to 7 ft over the south-central Gulf and 3 to 5 ft
elsewhere, except for 1 to 3 ft in the far northeast Gulf.

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh NE winds and moderate
seas will occur over the southeastern Gulf, including over the
Florida Straits, through late Fri as a moderate pressure gradient
prevails between a stalled front in the northwestern Caribbean and
western Atlantic, and high pressure over the northeastern Gulf.
Elsewhere, moderate to occasionally fresh S to SE winds are
expected over the northwestern basin each afternoon and night
through this weekend. Over the remainder of the Gulf, gentle to
moderate winds and slight to locally moderate seas will prevail
through the weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
convection associated with the significant rainfall event over the
next couple of days across Central America and adjacent waters.

A stationary front extends from extreme eastern Cuba to Puerto
Barrios, Guatemala. Recent scatterometer data from 15-16 UTC indicated
fresh to strong NE winds occurring behind the front and across
much of the northwest Caribbean. Fresh to strong E winds are also
occurring across the central Caribbean, strongest offshore
northwest Colombia. Wave heights west of 70W are 6 to 9 ft, and 5
to 7 ft east of 70W.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will occur over the central
and northwestern Caribbean through Thu morning as a frontal
boundary stalls over the region. Widespread rough seas are
expected over this area, with locally very rough seas possible in
the Gulf of Honduras. Winds and seas will slowly diminish Thu
night into early Fri as the front dissipates, though locally fresh
NE winds may continue to pulse in the lee of Cuba and in the far
south-central Caribbean into Sat. Heavy rainfall will continue
over the southwestern through west-central Caribbean and coastal
zones through Fri, from the southeastern Yucatan Peninsula across
Central America to Panama. Moderate trade winds and moderate seas
will occur over the basin by this weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from near 31N55W to 25N65W then becomes
stationary through the Turks and Caicos Islands and across
extreme eastern Cuba. Scattered showers are occurring in the
vicinity of the front. The subtropical ridge will extend along
28N/29N west of the front. Fresh NE winds are noted between the
front and the ridge south of 27N, with gentle to moderate breezes
elsewhere of the front. Wave heights are 8 to 12 ft in NW swell
west of the front to 74W, and 5 to 7 ft elsewhere west of 74W.
Farther east, a front reaches from near Madeira to 24N30W to 1016
mb low pressure near 26N44W. Fresh to strong NW winds and 8 to 12
ft are noted north of this front. Gentle to moderate winds and 5
to 7 ft seas are noted elsewhere across the Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to locally strong NE winds
will occur in the wake of the front north of the Greater Antilles
to 25N through late tonight, with locally fresh winds continuing
through late Fri night as the fronts slowly dissipate. Widespread
rough seas will expand eastward into the central Atlantic through
Thu, and very rough seas of 12 to 15 ft will be possible north of
25N between 55W and 67W through late tonight. Seas will diminish
from northwest to southeast Thu into Fri. Elsewhere, a cold front
pushing off the southeastern U.S. later today will lead to
moderate to fresh W to NW winds and locally rough seas north of
29N this evening through Thu. The cold front will eventually dive
southeastward in the central Atlantic by late week, supporting
fresh W to NW winds and rough seas east of 70W by Thu night.
Looking ahead, a series of cold fronts passing north of the region
this weekend will lead to strengthening winds and building seas
over the northern waters.

$$
Christensen