012
AXNT20 KNHC 111722
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Tue Nov 11 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Gale Warning:
A strong cold front, extending from 31N68W through southeastern
Cuba into the northwestern Caribbean Sea, will continue to move
eastward into the central Atlantic this week. Gale force winds
will continue in the wake of the front north of 29N between 66W
and 77W through this afternoon, with widespread strong to locally
near-gale force NE winds occurring elsewhere behind the front
through late tonight. Seas of 14 to 19 ft will occur near the
strongest winds, with widespread 8 to 14 ft seas elsewhere over
the western Atlantic. The front will weaken and eventually stall
Wed into Thu, with diminishing winds and seas expected behind the
front.

For more information about this warning, please see the latest
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
information.

Significant Rainfall over Central America:
A cold front currently extends over the central Bahamas, Cuba,
the Caribbean, Belize, Honduras, and Guatemala. This front and an
associated shear line will continue to support strong and moist
onshore flow, particularly into the northern coast of Honduras,
bringing precipitation through Thu. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is occurring in the southwestern Caribbean, generally
west of 75W and south of 20N. As the frontal system continues its
progression through the Atlantic, the low-level flow regime is
expected to shift from a NE flow to an E flow, and will begin to
inject moisture farther north into Belize and the Yucatan
Peninsula beginning on Wed. An activation of the Panamanian low
will continue advecting moisture into southeast Nicaragua, and the
Atlantic coasts of Costa Rica and Panama through Thu evening.
Orographic enhancement will aid in increasing total precipitation.
Significant rainfall in excess of 6 inches over the course of
several days will be possible during this period with local
amounts of 8 to 12 inches possible over northern Honduras, and is
likely to result in life-threatening flash flooding and
landslides. This information was provided by the International
Desk at the Weather Prediction Center.

Please refer to your local meteorological service for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and continues
to 06.5N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06.5N20W to 09N29W to 05N52W.
Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 04N to 12N
between 13W and 20W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Ridging extends over the basin as a 1034 mb high strengthens in
the Deep South of the U.S., and a 1030 mb high builds in
northeastern Mexico. A strong pressure gradient between this ridge
and a cold front moving through the western Atlantic is
supporting fresh to strong NE winds over the southern and eastern
Gulf, as observed via recent scatterometer satellite data. Recent
buoy data show rough seas continue over this region, with locally
very rough seas in excess of 12 ft noted through the Yucatan
Channel. Fresh NW winds also prevail in the southwestern basin
offshore of Veracruz. Over the northwestern Gulf, gentle to
locally moderate E to SE winds and 2 to 5 ft seas are noted.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a cold front
located SE of the area and high pressure centered over the SE of
the United States supports fresh to strong N to NE winds over the
eastern half of the Gulf. These winds will diminish by tonight as
the high pressure weakens and moves to north Florida. At the same
time, moderate to locally fresh southerly return flow is expected
over the NW Gulf. Then, high pressure will remain in control of
the weather pattern across the Gulf region toward the end of the
week producing a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
the significant rainfall event expected across Central America
and adjacent waters during the next few days.

A strong cold front, extending from southeastern Cuba through
northeastern Honduras, is progressing through the northwestern
Caribbean today. Recent scatterometer satellite data show
widespread strong to near-gale force NE winds are occurring in
the wake of the front from the lee of Cuba through the Yucatan
Channel and Gulf of Honduras. Rapidly building seas are occurring
in this region, with very rough seas of 12 to 13 ft noted offshore
of Belize and Honduras. Widespread moderate to fresh trade winds
prevail over the rest of the basin, with locally strong winds
noted in the south-central basin, as a tightening pressure
gradient develops between the cold front, low pressure in the
south-central Caribbean, and high pressure in the central
Atlantic. Recent altimeter and buoy data show 5 to 7 ft seas over
this region, with seas to 8 ft noted offshore of northwestern
Colombia.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will stall from
the Windward Passage to near Cabo Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua by
this evening, then weaken and gradually dissipate for the latter
half of the week. Aside from the strong winds and seas, the front
will continue to support the development of showers and
thunderstorms over the NW Caribbean and parts of Central America
through at least Thu. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas will
prevail in the south-central Caribbean through Wed night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for additional
details on the Gale Warning in effect for the W Atlantic.

A strong cold front, extending from 31N68W through southeastern
Cuba into the northwestern Caribbean Sea, is moving through the
western Atlantic. Recent scatterometer satellite data show
widespread strong to near-gale force winds are occurring in the
wake of the front, with gales north of 29N between 66W and 77W. A
wide swath of seas in excess of 8 ft are occurring behind the
front north of 25N and west of 65W, with seas over 12 ft noted via
recent altimeter data north of 28N and west of 70W. Altimeter and
buoy data denote seas over 18 ft north of 29N. To the east of the
front, strong S to SW winds are occurring north of 28N and west
of 63W.

Elsewhere, a 1019 mb low is centered near 30N43W, and
scatterometer data show moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds
and locally rough seas are occurring north and west of the low.
Farther east, moderate to locally fresh W to NW winds are noted
north of 28.5N between 20W and 55W as a storm system and
associated cold front pass north of the waters. The rest of the
open Atlantic waters is dominated by ridging, supporting moderate
to locally fresh trade winds and 5 to 7 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, a strong cold front extends from
31N68W to eastern Cuba. It is forecast to reach from 31N61W to the
Windward Passage by this evening, then stall from 31N55W to
eastern Cuba on Wed. Gale force winds and rough to very rough seas
follow the front. As the front stalls and weakens, winds will
diminish to moderate to fresh speeds on Wed, but rough seas in NW
swell will persist in the wake of the front through Wed night. A
reinforcing cold front will move across the N waters on Fri.

$$
ADAMS