932
AXNT20 KNHC 101042
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon Nov 10 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning:
A strong cold front extending from Crystal River, Florida to
Veracruz, Mexico will race southeast today and exit the basin
during the afternoon hours. Strong to near gale-force N to NE
winds and rough to very rough seas are expected behind the front,
with gale force winds and very rough seas offshore of Tampico and
Veracruz this morning into tonight. Conditions will improve basin-
wide by Tue evening as high pressure settle southward into the
region.

Western Atlantic Gale Warning: Strong winds are ahead and behind
a strong cold front that has emerged from the SE U.S. early this
morning and is affecting the NE Florida offshore waters. The front
will move SE and reach from Bermuda to eastern Cuba Tue, then
extend from 31N55W to The Turks and Caicos by Wed. NW gales and
very rough seas are expected N of 29N tonight through late Tue
behind the front, with locations to the south having strong to
near-gale force winds and rough seas after the front passes. As
the front weakens and stalls by the middle of the week, winds and
seas will gradually diminish.

For more information about these warnings, please see the latest
HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at
website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
information.

Significant Rainfall over Central America:
A shearline is expected to form early today over the NW Caribbean
Sea and Honduras, enhancing moisture convergence across Guatemala,
Belize, Honduras, and Nicaragua. The shearline will move south
today, and will interact with a surface trough off the coasts of
Nicaragua and Costa Rica by Tuesday morning, resulting in enhanced
moisture convergence. A cold front will then arrive in Guatemala,
Honduras, and Belize on Tuesday morning, after which it will
become stationary and linger across the region through Thursday.
Significant rainfall over the course of several days will be
possible as a result, and will raise concerns for life-
threatening flash flooding and landslides. This information was
provided by the International Desk at the Weather Prediction
Center.

Please refer to your local meteorological service for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon enters the Atlantic waters near 11N15W and continues
southwestward to near 07N25W. The ITCZ then extends from that
point to 05N41W to 04N52W. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring from 03N to 15N between 09W and 31W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for additional information
on the Gale Warning in the SW Gulf.

A strong cold front extends from Crystal River, Florida to
Veracruz, Mexico. Strong to near gale-force N to NE winds and
rough to very rough seas are ongoing behind the front, with gale
force winds and very rough seas offshore of Tampico and Veracruz.
Otherwise, scattered showers are ongoing in the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, the cold front will race southeast today and
exit the basin during the afternoon hours. Strong to near gale-
force N to NE winds and rough to very rough seas are expected
behind the front, with gale force winds and very rough seas
offshore of Tampico and Veracruz this morning into tonight.
Conditions will improve basin- wide by Tue evening as high
pressure settle southward into the region.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the section above for details on the significant
rainfall event expected across Central America and adjacent waters
this week.

The eastern end of the Pacific Monsoon Trough continues to
support heavy showers and scattered tstms across the offshore
waters of Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia. Scattered
showers and tstms are ongoing over the NW Caribbean waters ahead
of an approaching cold front. Otherwise, surface ridging extending
across the northern basin continues to tighten the gradient
across the eastern and central Caribbean, thus supporting the
continuation of fresh trades and moderate seas in these regions,
except for strong winds offshore Colombia and the Gulf of
Venezuela.

For the forecast, locally strong winds and rough seas are
expected in the south-central Caribbean through tonight. Rough
seas in east swell over the tropical Atlantic waters east of the
Lesser Antilles will gradually subside through Tue morning. A
strong cold front will enter the NW Caribbean waters this
afternoon, bringing strong to near gale force N winds and rough
seas in its wake. The front will stall from eastern Cuba to
eastern Honduras Tue and gradually weaken through Wed night. Aside
from the strong winds and seas, the front will support the
development of heavy rainfall and thunderstorms over Central
America and adjacent waters through at least Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning
in effect for the W Atlantic beginning tonight.

Strong winds are ahead and behind a strong cold front that has
emerged from the SE U.S. early this morning and is affecting the
NE Florida offshore waters N of 28N and eastward to 67W. Widely
scattered showers are also across the Bahamas offshore waters.
The remainder of the subtropical Atlantic is under the influence
of a broad ridge that is anchored by a 1025 mb high near 32N38W.
Moderate to fresh NE to E winds dominate the open Atlantic waters
S of 25N and E of 65W. Otherwise, long-period NW swell is
supporting rough seas to 10 ft over the eastern subtropical and
tropical Atlantic as well as portions of the central tropical
Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front will move SE and reach
from Bermuda to eastern Cuba Tue, then extend from 31N55W to the
Turks and Caicos by Wed. NW gales and very rough seas are expected
N of 29N tonight through late Tue behind the front, with
locations to the south having strong to near-gale force winds and
rough seas after the front passes. As the front weakens and stalls
by the middle of the week, winds and seas will gradually
diminish.

$$
Ramos