041
AXNT20 KNHC 032131
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu Sep 4 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic a few
hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde islands continues
to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions remain conducive for additional development of this
system during the next several days, and a tropical depression is
likely to form late this week or this weekend. This system is
expected to move westward to west-northwestward at around 15 mph
across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic into early next
week. There is a medium chance of formation within the next 2
days, and a high chance within the next 7 days. Refer to the
latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 33W, from
01N to 19N, moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 16N
between 30W and 36W. Please see SPECIAL FEATURES above for the
potential of tropical development associated with this tropical
wave.

The axis of a central Atlantic tropical wave is near 59W from 21N
southward, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 12N to 16N between 52W and 59W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 15N16W and continues to 11N33W and to 11N47W. The
ITCZ continues from 11N47W to 11N56W. Aside from convection noted
in the tropical waves section above, scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 13N east of 28W,
and from 10N to 13N between 38W and 50W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A frontal trough extends from the Florida Keys to the north-
central Gulf near 25N93W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is in the vicinity of this trough over the eastern
Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 1-3 ft, prevail over
the Gulf waters.

For the forecast, the frontal trough will persist over the east-
central Gulf through Fri. This system will continue to generate
scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly
across the eastern part of the basin. Elsewhere, a weak pressure
gradient in place will maintain gentle to moderate winds with
slight to locally moderate seas through the forecast period.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between ridging N of the area and the
Colombia low is supporting moderate to fresh trades and seas in
the 4-5 ft range in the south- central Caribbean. Moderate or
weaker trades, and slight seas prevail over the remainder of the
Caribbean waters.

For the forecast, The Atlantic ridge, anchored by a 1026 mb high
located SW of the Azores near 34N37W, combined with lower
pressures in northern Colombia will sustain moderate to fresh
easterly trade winds along with moderate seas across much of the
central Caribbean through Sat. Fresh to locally strong winds are
expected to pulse at night off Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela
through Fri night. In addition, moderate to locally fresh E winds
and slight to moderate seas will prevail in the Gulf of Honduras
through Sat night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from a 1010 mb low centered near 33N72W SE to
the straits of Florida. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is in the vicinity of the front. Moderate to fresh
winds, and seas of 4-7 ft, are on either side of the front N of
27N. High pressure dominates the remainder of the waters N of 20N,
anchored by a 1026 mb high located SW of the Azores near 34N37W.
Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the waters E of 35W, reaching
strong speeds off the coast of Africa. Seas over these waters are
in the 6-8 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4-6 ft,
prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the frontal boundary will persist
across the NW part of the forecast region and E of Florida likely
through Sat. The front will shift westward as the Atlantic high
pressure moves also westward over the next two or three days. The
pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the front
supports an area of fresh to strong southerly winds with moderate
to rough seas north of 27N and between 70W and 73W. These winds
will diminish to 20 kt or less by this evening. Scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms E of the front are affecting
the Bahamas, south Florida, the Straits of Florida and Cuba.
Unsettled weather conditions will continue ahead of the front over
the next few days. Stronger winds and higher seas are likely near
the strongest storms. Elsewhere, the Atlantic ridge will continue
to dominate the weather pattern across the forecast waters,
supporting gentle to moderate winds and mostly moderate seas.

$$
AL