869
AXNT20 KNHC 041652
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu Jun 4 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warning East of 35W: The pressure gradient between the 1031
mb high pressure system centered southwest of the Azores and lower
pressures in northwest Africa result in strong to near gale-
force northerly winds in the Agadir High Seas Marine Zones.
Scatterometer data from 1014 UTC today showed strong to near gale
force winds occurring off the coast of Morocco. Gale-force winds
are expected to occur through 05/0000 UTC with severe gusts. These
winds will produce rough seas. Similar conditions will persist
into the weekend. For more details, refer to the Meteo- France
High Seas Forecast listed on their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed near 17W south of
14N, moving west at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
active from 06N to 10N between 13W and 19W.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 39W, south of 12N,
moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen
from 04N to 09N between 36W and 42W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 51W, south of 14N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 08N to 12N between 47W and 55W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 64W, south of 15N,
moving westward at 15 kt. No deep convection is noted over the
Caribbean waters. The wave is enhancing shower and thunderstorm
activity across NE South America.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 06N26W. The
ITCZ extends from 06N26W to 03N37W where it is broken by a
tropical wave. The ITCZ then resumes from 02N40W to 01N50W.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are along and within
150 nm of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weakening stationary front and frontal remnant trough extend
from the Florida Straits to SE Louisiana. A tight pressure
gradient behind the front forces fresh to strong easterly winds
and moderate to rough seas. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and
slight to moderate seas are present across the southeast Gulf and
the Straits of Florida. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
slight seas prevail. Divergence aloft and plenty of tropical
moisture result in numerous moderate and isolated strong
convection over the Gulf waters east of 90W.

For the forecast, fresh to strong E to SE winds and moderate to
rough seas persist north of a weakening stationary front over the
SE waters. Pressure is falling over the central Gulf along a
trough, and low pressure weak may form later today near 26N90W
even as the front dissipates. This will enhance the strong winds
and rough seas over the north-central Gulf this afternoon and
evening. Meanwhile, scattered thunderstorms will continue today
over the south-central and southeast Gulf. Winds and seas will
diminish starting Fri as the low dissipates to a remnant trough as
it moves onshore over southwest Louisiana, and as a ridge builds
from the western Atlantic into the eastern Gulf. This pattern will
support gentle to moderate E to SE winds and slight to moderate
seas into early next week, except for occasionally fresh to strong
pulses off northwest Yucatan during the evenings.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A ridge extends from 1031 mb high pressure system centered
SW of the Azores southwestward to the Caribbean Sea, supporting
fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas in the south-
central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate
seas are noted in the north-central and eastern Caribbean as well
as the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and
slight to moderate seas prevail. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring in the SW Caribbean, along the eastern extension of the
East Pacific monsoon trough.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds and
moderate seas will persist across the Caribbean into Sat as the
Atlantic ridge north of the area weakens and shifts eastward. The
exceptions will be fresh to strong pulses off Venezuela tonight,
and in the Gulf of Honduras tonight and Fri night. Fresh to strong
SE winds and building are possible over the northwest and north-
central Caribbean late Sat through early next week as the Atlantic
ridge rebuilds north of area.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning in
the far northeast Atlantic.

A cold front extends from 31N67W to the central Bahamas and the
Florida Straits. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are
present along and just ahead of the front, while scattered
moderate convection is occurring over the central and southern
Bahamas. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds and rough seas in NE swell
are found behind the front. Fresh to strong southerly winds and
moderate seas are evident N of 27N and W of 65W to the front. In
the remainder of the tropical Atlantic, the basin is being
dominated by ridging centered around a 1031 mb high located SW of
the Azores, leading to moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and
moderate to locally rough seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front reaches from 31N68W to
the central Bahamas, then is stationary to the Florida Straits.
Rough seas will linger over the northern waters behind the front
today. The front will stall today then dissipate Fri into Sat, as
high pressure builds across the area. This pattern will allow
gentle to moderate winds and 3-5 ft seas into early next week.

$$
Adams