886
AXNT20 KNHC 151707
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Wed Oct 15 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Lorenzo is centered near 21.5N 44.1W at 1500 UTC
or 1230 nm WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving N-NE at 12 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are estimated
to be around 14 ft (3.5 m) northeast of the center. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is seen from 20N to 23.5N between 43W
and 45W. Lorenzo continues to struggle to maintain convection,
with the majority of wind and weather continuing to occur across
the eastern side. A turn toward the northeast and a faster
forward speed is expected later today. There appears only a slight
chance for strengthening in the short term, and Lorenzo is
forecast to dissipate by Thursday. Please read the latest HIGH
SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Lorenzo NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends along 26W, from 05N to 15N, moving west
around 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
from 04.5N to 14N between 24W and 32W.

A tropical wave extends along 39W, from 03N to 12N, moving west
near 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
present from 02.5N to 9.5N between 38W and 46W.

A tropical wave extends along 57W/58W, from 13N to 20N, moving
NW at 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 15N to 18N
between 55W and 57W. This wave appears to be captured in the deep
layered southerly flow created by a sharp upper trough across the
Lesser Antilles.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13.5N16.5W to 09N22W
to 08.5N28W. The ITCZ then continues to 09N30W to 08N38W, then
resumes west of a tropical wave near 06N41W to 06.5N51W to 10N62W.
Other than the convection described in the Tropical Waves section
above, scattered moderate convection is seen from 02.5N to 08N
between 10W and 20W, from 08N to 12.5N between 32W and 37W, and
from 12N to 15N between 61W and 65W.

Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is occurring about the
eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough, from 08N to 12.5N
between 77W and 82W, and affecting the Caribbean waters and
coasts of Panama and northwestern Colombia.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure across the southern U.S. extends a broad ridge
southward across the northern Gulf, and is drapped across a
persistent surface trough across the central Gulf, extending from
25.5N85.5W southeastward into the Yucatan Channel. Scattered
moderate convection is occurring near the trough from 21N to 23.5N
between 85.5W and 87.5W. This trough was formerly the western end
of a cold front the continues through the Straits of Florida along
the northwestern coast of Cuba. Moderate to locally fresh E-NE
winds were depicted by recent ASCAT data across the southeast
Gulf, north of the front to 27N and between the offshore waters of
SW Florida and the trough. Seas are 4-6 ft across this area as
verified by recent altimeter data. Elsewhere across the basin,
mainly gentle E to NE winds wrap across the surface through, then
become N-NE into the Bay of Campeche. Seas are 1-3 ft across these
waters.

For the forecast, a weak ridge will dominate the Gulf region through
the forecast period, resulting in gentle to moderate winds and
slight to moderate seas over much of the basin. Winds are forecast
to increase to fresh speeds over the eastern and central Gulf Thu
night through Sat night as the pressure gradient tightens some
across the area. Winds will veer to the SE and S by the end of
the week as high pressure over the SE United States shifts
eastward into the western Atlantic. Looking ahead, a cold front is
expected to reach the NW Gulf waters on Sun.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The passage of two cold fronts over the SW N Atlantic waters and
the presence of Tropical Storm Lorenzo in the central Atlantic
continues to support a weak pressure pattern in the Caribbean,
resulting in mainly light to gentle winds, except for locally
moderate southeasterly winds over the far southeast portions.
This is supporting slight seas basin-wide, with peak seas to 4 ft
likely across southeastern waters. However, moderate to strong
convection occurring across southwest portions is likely
supporting strong to gusty winds and moderate to rough seas.

For the forecast, a cold front will move slowly southward across
Cuba and the NW Caribbean through Thu before dissipating. Moderate
to locally fresh winds and moderate seas are expected in the wake
of the front. Unsettled weather conditions will persist along and
ahead of the frontal boundary. Elsewhere, a weak pressure
gradient will support moderate or lighter winds and slight to
moderate seas over much of the basin through Sat. The trade winds
will become mainly fresh across the eastern Caribbean by Sat
evening as a well defined tropical wave approaches the Lesser
Antilles. The tropical wave is forecast to move across the E
Caribbean on Sun when fresh trades will extend to the central
basin waters. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are expected
behind the wave axis.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for further details
on Tropical Storm Lorenzo in the central Atlantic.

A cold front extends from 31N61W southwestward through the central
Bahamas and then westward along the NW coast of Cuba. Scattered
showers and tstms are within 240 nm ahead of the front. Fresh to
strong N to NW winds follow the front to the east of 78W, where
seas are 5-7 ft to 28N and 8-9 ft northwest of 28N. East of the
front, fresh to locally strong SW winds are fueling the active
convection and reaching near gale force north of 30N and ahead of
the front to 56W. Seas are 8-9 ft in these stronger winds.

Farther east, a 1001 mb low, remnants of Jerry, is near
29.5N46.5W, with a surface trough extending from just east of this
low to 24N52W. Fresh to strong SW to S winds are also within 240
nm east of this trough, and increase to near gale force north of
27N. Heavy showers and tstms are N of 26.5N in this area, with
seas 8 to 12 ft. A stationary front meanders just north of this
area between 40W and 47W. The remainder subtropical Atlantic
waters are under the influence of a ridge centered on a 1019 mb
high between the Canary Islands and the Cape Verde Islands near
23N24W. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds prevail south of
the associated ridge, and south of 10N, between the Cabo Verdes
and 40W, turning to fresh to strong SE to S winds, north of 18N
between 35W, Lorenzo, and the former remnants of Jerry along 46W.
Seas are 7 to 12 ft in this strong southerly flow.

For the forecast, the cold front will move SE across the forecast waters
through Fri before dissipating. The front will be reinforced by
persistent northwesterly flow tonight, reaching from 31N60W to
21N75W by Thu morning, and from 31N55W to Hispaniola by Fri
morning. Another reinforcing front will follow the main front, and
it is forecast to extend from 31N60W to the Straits of Florida by
Fri morning. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are expected on
either side of the front mainly across the waters N of 25N
through at least Sat.

$$
Stripling