697
AXNT20 KNHC 022145
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Wed Sep 3 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic is near
28W, from 18N southward, moving toward the west around 10 to 15
kt. The wave continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions remain conducive for
gradual development of this system during the next several days,
and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this
weekend. This system is expected to initially move slowly
westward and then gradually accelerate westward to west-
northwestward at around 15 mph across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic into early next week. There is a low chance of
tropical formation within the next 48 hours, and a high chance
within the next 7 days. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather
Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

The axis of a tropical wave in the central Atlantic is near 56W,
from 19N southward, moving toward the west around 15 to 20 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 10N to 15N
between 54W and 59W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 18N16W and extends to 09N38W. The ITCZ continues
from 09N38W to 10N54W. Aside from convection noted in the tropical
waves section above, scattered moderate convection is noted from
08N to 12N east of 25W, and from 05N to 12N between 30W and 52W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A nearly stationary front extends from south Florida to near
Corpus Christi, Texas. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is in the vicinity of the front. Gentle to locally
moderate winds are N of the front, where seas are in the 2-3 ft
range. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 1-2 ft, are S of the
front.

For the forecast, the front will gradually dissipate through Wed.
Then, a frontal trough will likely persist over the east- central
Gulf through Fri. This system will generate scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms, mainly across the northern half of the
basin. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient in place will maintain
gentle to moderate winds with slight to locally moderate seas
through Sun. Looking ahead, winds may increase to fresh speeds
across the NW Gulf by Sun night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between low pressure over northern Colombia
and the subtropical ridge to the north is supporting fresh to
strong winds over the south central Caribbean. Moderate winds are
elsewhere E of 80W. Light to gentle winds are found W of 80W. Seas
are in the 4-6 ft range in the south central Caribbean, and 1-3 ft
elsewhere.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge combined with the Colombian
low will support moderate to fresh trades along with moderate seas
across much of the central Caribbean through Sat. Fresh to
locally strong winds are expected to pulse at night off Colombia
and the Gulf of Venezuela through Fri night. In addition, moderate
to locally fresh winds will prevail in the Gulf of Honduras
through the forecast period.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A nearly stationary front extends from 31N74W to the NW Bahamas
and south Florida. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is east of the front. Moderate to fresh winds prevail
NW of the front and within 120 nm SE of the front. Seas over these
waters are in the 4-6 ft range. High pressure prevails over the
remainder of the discussion waters N of 20N. Moderate to fresh
winds are noted E of 35W, reaching strong speeds off the coast of
Africa. Seas over these waters are in the 6-8 ft range. Gentle to
moderate winds, and seas of 3-5 ft, prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will persist
over the NW waters. Elsewhere, the Atlantic ridge will continue
to dominate the weather pattern across the forecast waters,
supporting gentle to moderate winds and mostly moderate seas.

$$
AL