974
AXNT20 KNHC 110603
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Thu Dec 11 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Sierra Leone coast
near Freetown, then runs southwestward to 06N19W. An ITCZ
continues westward from 06N19W to 04N48W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted up to 240 nm along either side
of the ITCZ between 19W and 36W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is seen near and up to 120 nm north of the rest of the
ITCZ, and also south of the monsoon trough from 02N to 05N
between 10W and 19W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at the Caribbean
waters near Costa Rica and Panama.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak cold front is causing patchy showers from near New Orleans
eastward to the Florida Panhandle. A surface trough is generating
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at the Yucatan
Channel and the Florida Straits. Otherwise, a broad surface ridge
extending southeastward from central Texas is dominating the rest
of the Gulf. Moderate to fresh NW winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are
present at the northeastern Gulf and offshore of New Orleans.
Gentle to moderate N to NE to SE winds and 1 to 3 ft seas prevail
for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the weak cold front will quickly push across
the eastern Gulf tonight into tomorrow before dissipating by Fri.
The front will be accompanied by fresh to strong NW to N winds.
Afterwards, conditions across the entire Gulf will be quiescent
for next couple of days as subtle high pressure prevails. A strong
cold front should reach the northern waters on Sun with
increasing winds and building seas behind the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is producing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms near eastern Dominican Republic and the Mona
Passage. Convergent trade winds are generating isolated
thunderstorms across the northwestern basin. Refer to the ITCZ and
Monsoon Trough section for additional weather in the Caribbean
Sea. Fresh to strong ENE to E winds and 7 to 9 ft seas are evident
at the south-central basin. Moderate to fresh easterly winds with
5 to 7 ft seas are at the north-central basin. Light to gentle
winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail elsewhere in the basin.

For the forecast, moderate pressure gradient between the Bermuda-
Azores High and the Colombian Low will continue to produce
widespread fresh to strong trades over the central and eastern
basin for the next several days. Similarly, trades over the
tropical North Atlantic will generally be fresh to strong with
rough seas in large E swell through early next week. Some of this
swell will also funnel through the Atlantic passages into the
Lesser Antilles. A cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel on
Mon with increasing winds and seas behind the front.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front runs southwestward from the north-central
Atlantic across 31N57W to east of central Bahamas. Scattered
moderate convection is found up to 180 nm along either side of
the front. A surface trough along the east coast of Florida is
creating showers and thunderstorms at the Great Bahama Bank.
Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection
in the Atlantic Basin, west of 35W.

Fresh to strong SW to W winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft are seen
offshore from northeastern Florida. Otherwise, moderate with
locally fresh SE to S winds and 6 to 8 ft seas in moderate to
large northerly swell exist north of 22N between 55W and the
Florida east coast. At the central Atlantic north of 23N between
35W and 42W, a 1026 mb high pressure is providing light to gentle
winds and 8 to 10 ft seas in large mixed swell. For the tropical
Atlantic, fresh to strong ENE to E winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft
are present. For the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W,
gentle to moderate ESE to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas exist.

For the forecast, the aforementioned stationary front will
dissipate late tonight. Fresh to strong W winds will develop north
of the Bahamas tonight ahead of our next cold front. The new
front should emerge off of the Florida/Georgia coast late tonight
and extend from near 31N74W to the Florida Straits tomorrow
morning, moving to 31N62W to the Turks and Caicos Fri morning, and
dissipating in our NE waters from 31N55W to 27N61W Sat morning.
Winds north of 27N both ahead and behind the cold front will be
fresh to strong on Thu and Fri. Additionally, 8-10 ft seas due to
mixed SE and N swell will impact the waters south of 25N east of
65W tonight and extending through early next week. Winds will
improve across forecast waters Fri night through the weekend.
Another cold front will reach the waters north of the Bahamas Sun
afternoon with increasing winds and building seas occurring behind
the front.

$$

Chan