381
AXNT20 KNHC 150959
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Wed Jan 15 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Significant Swell Event: The large, long-period NW swell
that has been impacting the central Atlantic continues to subside.
Currently, seas 12 ft or greater cover the waters N of 29N between
30W and 40W. These seas will subside below 12 ft early today.
Another round of significant NW swell will impact the waters N of
25N between 40W and 70W starting this afternoon and persisting
through Friday, with wave heights of 12-18 ft possible.

Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at the website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic waters near 09N14W and
extends southwestward to 05N16W. The ITCZ extends from 05N16W to
02S40W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted from 00N to 05N between 15W and 45W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is over the western Gulf, with high pressure
prevailing elsewhere. Moderate to fresh winds prevail across the
Gulf waters, reaching locally strong over the SW Gulf. Seas are in
the 5-8 ft range.

For the forecast, the surface trough will linger over the western
part of the basin into Thu night. Strong N winds will prevail W
of the trough. At the end of the week, southerly winds may
increase to fresh to strong ahead of the next cold front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds prevail over the central Caribbean, reaching
near gale force locally off Colombia. Moderate winds are noted
elsewhere. Seas are in the 7-10 ft range over the south central
Caribbean, and 4-6 ft over the north central and eastern
Caribbean. Over the western Caribbean, seas of 3-4 ft are noted.

For the forecast, high pressure building across the western
Atlantic will maintain moderate to fresh trade winds over the
eastern and south- central Caribbean, with strong winds pulsing
off Colombia as well as offshore Hispaniola into Fri night. Long
period swell is likely to arrive into Atlantic passages by Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details on
the significant swell in the Atlantic.

A cold front that extends from 31N60W to the central Bahamas,
while a stationary front extends from 31N39W to the northern
Windward Islands. Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the waters
N of 30N and W of 35W, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere.
Seas are in the 8-12 ft range N of 12N between 22W and 59W.
Elsewhere, seas of 5-7 ft prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will stall over the far
SE waters Thu night. The front has ushered in a set of large,
long- period NW to N swell over the waters east of 75W. The swell
will shift to east of 55W by Fri night.

$$
AL