652
AXNT20 KNHC 190426
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Wed Aug 19 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0425 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 28N, south
of 17N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is depicted from 07N to 14N between 24W and 34.5W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 47W, south of
18N, moving westward at around 15 kt. No significant convection
is associated with this wave at this time.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 66W, south
of 18N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Isolated moderate
convection is observed south of 11.5N between 63W and the wave
axis.

The tropical wave previously analyzed over the western Caribbean
is now been discussed in the Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather
Discussion (TWDEP).

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

Th monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W and continues
southwestward to 10N20W to 09N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is evident from 05N to 13N and east of 24W.
Isolated moderate convection is noted from 08N to 14N between
34.5W and 40W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Weak high pressure centered near 27N89.5W supports moderate to
locally fresh W-NW winds across the NE Gulf, and moderate to
locally fresh NE winds across the southern Gulf. Slight seas to 3
ft dominate the basin. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong
convection is depicted over the Bay of Campeche is association to
a surface trough over the area.

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the Gulf
waters through the forecast period. A weak pressure pattern will
support mostly gentle to moderate winds across much of the basin.
A diurnally induced surface trough will generate fresh to locally
strong winds north and west of the Yucatan peninsula early each
evening. These winds will spread westward away from the Yucatan at
night as the trough migrates into the SW Gulf. Slight to moderate
seas are expected through the forecast period.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The subtropical ridge recently north of the Caribbean has shifted
eastward as a frontal system has moved southward of 30N. The
remnants of the ridge extend from the central Atlantic to N of
Puerto Rico along 18N. This weakened pressure pattern is
supporting moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 5-8
ft from 66W into Central America, with locally strong winds
offshore Colombia. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to
moderate seas prevail. Thunderstorms are active across the
coastal waters and inland from Costa Rica to NE Honduras, behind a
tropical wave.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a subtropical
ridge north of the area and the Colombian low will support fresh
to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas across the south-
central Caribbean through much of the forecast period. Moderate to
fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail in the north-central
and eastern Caribbean into the weekend. Elsewhere, moderate or
lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are expected.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N50W to a 1015 mb low pres near
27N65W, followed by a weak cold front to the southwest. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted ahead of the
stationary front. Moderate SW winds and seas of 4-7 ft are noted
south of the front to 26N between 31W and 65W. The remainder of
the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad ridge centered on a
1027 mb high near 40W33W, that extends southwestward to just
north of the NE Caribbean. Trade winds across the Atlantic S of
21N and W of 30W are moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas.
However, moderate to fresh northerly winds and seas of 5-8 ft are
found in the far eastern Atlantic off NW Mauritania and southern
Western Sahara. Saharan Air continues to dominate the Atlantic
basin N of 12N and east of the Caribbean, as well as the southern
Bahamas, central and NW Caribbean and into the SE Gulf of
America.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned frontal
boundaries will weaken to a frontal trough tonight into Wed.
Elsewhere, weak pressure gradient will support mainly light to
gentle winds, locally moderate, across much of the area north of
22N through the week and into the weekend. Moderate to locally
fresh easterly winds can be expected south of 22N.

$$
KRV