733
AXNT20 KNHC 222318
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Sep 23 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Potential Heavy Rainfall in Central America:
A Central American Gyre (CAG) is gradually developing over Central
America with a broad 1007 mb low pressure analyzed near 15N83W.
Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is evident
across the western half of the Caribbean basin, mainly W of 70W.
Environmental conditions appear favorable for development of this
system, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to
form during the next few days while moving northward across the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of
development, this disturbance is expected to produce heavy rains
over portions of Central America during the next several days.
Interests in the northwestern Caribbean, Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico, and western Cuba should closely monitor the progress of
this feature. Later this week, the system is forecast to move
generally northward across the Gulf of Mexico, and interests along
the northern and northeastern Gulf Coast should also monitor the
progress of this system. There is medium chance of development in
the next 48 hours, while there is a high chance of tropical
cyclone formation in the next seven days. It is recommended that
residents in the aforementioned areas stay alert on the latest
information from their local meteorological agencies.

Please refer to the Tropical Weather Discussion for
the Eastern Pacific at website:
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWDEP.shtml for rainfall across El
Salvador and the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, Guatemala, and
southern Mexico.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed along 18W from 06N to 18N. The wave is
moving W at about 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
depicted from 10N to 15N and E of 22W. As this waves moves
westward during the next several days, environmental conditions
could support some gradual development of this system, and a
tropical depression could form during the middle to latter part of
the week while the wave moves westward across the eastern and
central tropical Atlantic. This wave has a medium chance of
tropical cyclone formation in the next 7 days.

A tropical wave is analyzed along 43W from 04N to 17N. Scattered
showers are noted from 11N to 16N between 45W and 47W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N17W, then extends
southwestward to 08N36W. The ITCZ continues from that point to
08N40W, then resumes W of a tropical wave near 10N48W to 11N57W. No
significant convection is depicted at this time.

See Special Features section above for information on a low
pressure center along the eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon
trough and its associated convection.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

See Special Features section above for information on developing
low pressure over the NW Caribbean and adjacent parts of Central
America that may impact portions of Gulf of Mexico later this
week.

Weak high pressure dominates the basin at this time. Dry
conditions prevail with light to gentle E winds and seas of 3 ft
or less.

For the forecast, disorganized showers and thunderstorms located
over the western Caribbean Sea are associated with a very broad
area of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear favorable
for gradual development of this system during the next several
days. A tropical depression is likely to form while the system
moves slowly northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
Gulf of Mexico through the end of the week. Regardless of
development, winds and seas will start increasing across the SE
Gulf early this week, and spread across the eastern Gulf
thereafter.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for potential
heavy rainfall associated with a developing Central American
Gyre (CAG) over the western Caribbean.

A deep layer trough is producing scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection over the central Caribbean. Recent scatterometer
pass revealed near-gale to gale force winds within the strongest
convection particularly east of Jamaica. Outside of convection,
moderate E to SE winds and seas of 3 to 4 ft are noted at the
southeastern basin. Gentle E to SE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft
prevail across the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, disorganized showers and thunderstorms located
over the western Caribbean Sea are associated with a very broad
area of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear favorable
for gradual development of this system during the next several
days. A tropical depression is likely to form while the system
moves slowly northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
Gulf of Mexico through the end of the week. Regardless of
development, winds and seas will increase over the NW Caribbean
early this week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

A cold front enters the western Atlantic, analyzed from 31N68W to
28N76W. Scattered showers are noted along the front. To the east,
a 1007 mb low pressure centered near 28N56W is producing
scattered showers along with fresh winds and seas to 6 ft from
24N to 30N between 52W and 57W. Development of this system is not
expected due to dry air and increasing upper-level winds during
the next couple of days, while the low moves slowly northward.
Farther E, another low is analyzed near 30N44W. This low is no
longer producing convection, but a broad area of fresh SE to S
winds and seas of 7 to 8 ft extend N of 26N between 36W and 44W.
To the SE, A surface trough is analyzed from 17N36W to 12N30W.
Scattered showers are noted along the trough.

For the remainder of the basin, weak high pressure is leading to
light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft, except from 18N to
26N and E of 26W, where moderate to fresh NE winds and seas to 6
ft prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, the west Atlantic weak cold front will
move across the waters N of 25N through the middle of the week.
Mainly light to gentle winds, occasionally moderate, will
prevail. A set of northerly swell will propagate into the northern
waters Mon, bringing an increase in seas over the waters N of 30N
through the middle of the week.

$$
ERA