244
AXNT20 KNHC 111011
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Oct 11 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0955 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Jerry is centered near 24.5N 63.4W at 11/0900 UTC
or 380 nm N of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving N at 14 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Numerous moderate to
strong convection is from 17N to 18N and between 58W and 66W.
Peak seas near the center are around 23 ft (7 M). A northward to
north-northeastward motion is expected through the weekend, followed
by a turn toward the east on Monday. Some gradual weakening is
forecast over the next few days. Swells generated by Jerry are
affecting the Leeward Islands, Windward Islands, Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, and the Turks and Caicos Islands,
likely causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
These swells are expected to spread toward the Bahamas this
morning. Please consult products from your local weather office
for more information.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Jerry
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 25W, south of 15N,
moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection
is noted S of 13N and between 22W and 37W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 44W, south of 20N, moving
westward at 10-15 kt. A few showers are noted near the wave axis.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 77W, south of 20N, moving
westward at 10 kt. Scattered showers are present between 70W and
82W, south of 16N.

A western Caribbean tropical wave axis is along 87W, south of
18N, moving westward at 10 kt. A few showers are evident near the
wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 17N16W to 09N40W. The ITCZ extends from 09N49W to
08N58W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 08N to 14N
and between 47W and 54W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A frontal trough over the SE Gulf continues to support some
showers and isolated thunderstorms. The remainder of the basin is
dominated by a ridging over the eastern United States, supporting
moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate seas over much of the
Gulf. However, strong NE winds and rough seas are present in the
NE and central Gulf waters.

For the forecast, marine conditions will improve Sun. Meanwhile,
a 1006 mb low pres currently near east- central Florida will move
northward over the next couple of days and drag a cold front
across the SE and central Gulf. Moderate to locally fresh E winds
and moderate seas will affect the area behind the boundary early
next week. Ridging will build in by midweek, allowing for gentle
to moderate easterly winds.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the section above for details on the tropical
waves moving across the basin.

The pre-frontal trough over the NW Caribbean and divergence aloft
support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 18N
and between 77W and 82W. In the NE Caribbean, the very moist
southerly flow into T.S. Jerry result in scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms. Moderate to locally fresh S winds and
slight to moderate seas are occurring in the NW Caribbean.
Moderate SE winds and moderate seas are noted in the eastern
Caribbean. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate
seas prevail.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Jerry is near 24.5N 63.4W at 5 AM
EDT, and is moving north at 14 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 50
kt with gusts to 60 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1004
mb. Jerry will move to 26.4N 63.2W this afternoon, 29.0N 62.6W Sun
morning, 31.1N 61.9W Sun afternoon, 33.0N 60.6W Mon morning,
become extratropical and move to 33.2N 58.5W Mon afternoon, and
32.5N 56.0W Tue morning. Jerry will dissipate early Wed. A pre-
frontal trough will maintain unsettled weather conditions across
the NW Caribbean during the next couple of days, while fresh to
locally strong and moderate seas southerly winds are expected
today into early Sun, mainly in the lee of Cuba. High pressure
will build in the wake of Jerry bringing a return of the trade
winds across the eastern Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the sections above for details on Tropical Storm
Jerry and the tropical waves moving across the basin.

A stationary front is analyzed from 31N60W to a 1006 mb low
pressure near 28N80W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are seen west of 74W and ahead of the front north of 27N and
between 55W and 60W. Fresh to near gale-force E winds and rough
seas are found north of 29N and west of 65W. Fresh to near gale-
force SE winds are noted north of Jerry to 31N and between 58W and
65W. Moderate or lighter winds and moderate to locally rough seas
in the remainder of SW N Atlantic, west of 55W.

In the rest of the tropical Atlantic waters, a broad subtropical
ridge dominates, supporting moderate to locally fresh easterly
winds and moderate to rough seas south of 20N and west of 30W. In
the far eastern Atlantic, fresh to locally strong NE winds and
moderate to locally rough seas are found off Morocco, Western
Sahara and Mauritania. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Storm Jerry is near 24.5N
63.4W at 5 AM EDT, and is moving north at 14 kt. Maximum
sustained winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt, and the minimum
central pressure is 1004 mb. Jerry will move to 26.4N 63.2W this
afternoon, 29.0N 62.6W Sun morning, 31.1N 61.9W Sun afternoon,
33.0N 60.6W Mon morning, become extratropical and move to 33.2N
58.5W Mon afternoon, and 32.5N 56.0W Tue morning. Jerry will
dissipate early Wed. Tight pressure gradient just south of Bermuda
result in strong to near gale-force E winds and rough seas. These
conditions will shift north of our waters this afternoon.
Meanwhile, developing low pressure system centered offshore
central Florida will move northeastward through the weekend. The
associated cold front will extend from the low center across south
Florida into the SE Gulf of America. Fresh to near gale-force
winds and rough seas are expected on either side of the front
through Mon. The front is forecast to move slowly SE and dissipate
by Mon and the marine conditions will improve by Tue.

$$
Delgado