128
AXNT20 KNHC 011049
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon Sep 1 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warning E of 35W: A tight pressure gradient between a 1029
mb high pressure system west of the Azores and lower pressure over
NW Africa will support strong to gale-force N-NE winds and rough
to very rough seas in the Agadir region through at least 02/0600
UTC. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas will persist off Morocco
into early Wed. For more details, refer to the Meteo-France High
Seas Forecast listed on their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the far E Atlantic along 20W, from 03N to
17N, and is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is observed from 06N to 15N between 13W and 26W.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for slow development of
this system, and a tropical depression could form late this week
or next weekend. This system is expected to move westward to west-
northwestward at around 15 mph across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic throughout the week. This wave has a low chance
of tropical development in the next 48 hours and a medium chance
in the next 7 days. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather
Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic along 43W, from 04N to
19N, and moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection
is noted near this wave.

A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean with axis along 77W,
south of 19N, and moving westward at 20 kt. Numerous moderate to
strong convection is ahead of the wave S of 14N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 09N25W,
then to 09N44W. The ITCZ extends from 09N44W to 10N60W. Aside from
the convection associated with the tropical wave near the Cabo
Verde Islands, scattered moderate convection is evident from 04N
to 12N between 25W and 35W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front extends from Sarasota, Florida to the
north-central Gulf near 26N90W, and continues to Padre Island,
Texas. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms associated
with the front are affecting the NW Gulf coastal and offshore
waters. Heavy showers and tstms have shifted to the western
Bay of Campeche ahead of a surface trough off the Yucatan
Peninsula. Mariners can expect hazardous conditions in the
vicinity of the storms. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient
results in light to gentle winds and slight seas.

For the forecast, the front will remain stationary today and
gradually dissipate through Tue. The front will be a focus for
showers and thunderstorms into mid-week. Elsewhere, a weak
pressure gradient in place will maintain mainly gentle to
moderate winds and slight to locally moderate seas through the
period.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Heavy showers and tstms are ongoing in the SW Caribbean ahead of
a tropical wave that is moving across Jamaica this morning. Rough
seas and low visibility are likely in this area S of 14N between
the wave axis the coastal waters of Costa Rica. Otherwise, a
strong ridge over the central Atlantic and lower pressures in
northern South America support fresh to strong easterly trade
winds in the south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of
Venezuela. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds are present in the Gulf
of Honduras. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas
prevail elsewhere across the basin.

For the forecast, the tropical wave over the western Caribbean will
move westward and reach the Gulf of Honduras Tue before moving
west of the basin. Elsewhere, Atlantic high pressure in
combination with low pressure over northern Colombia will support
moderate to fresh trades along with moderate seas across much of
the central Caribbean through Fri night. Locally strong winds are
expected to pulse at night off Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela.
Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds will prevail in the Gulf of
Honduras through the forecast period.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details on the Gale
Warning for the Agadir region issued by Meteo-France

A stationary front extends from a 1011 low pres near 31N73W to
Cape Canaveral, Florida. Fresh to strong NE winds are occurring
north of the frontal boundary along with rough seas to 10 ft.
A few showers are also evident N of the Bahamas to 30N between 74W
and 79W. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a
strong subtropical ridge just SW of Azores, which is supporting
moderate or weaker winds W of 25W. A tighter pressure gradient E
of 25W support fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas, except for
the area of gales mentioned in the Special Features.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front extending to
Cape Canaveral, Florida will persist through Thu. Expect fresh to
strong NE winds with moderate to rough seas north of the front
through today, and moderate to fresh NE winds tonight through Thu
morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with this
frontal boundary will affect the Florida seaboard, and the
northern and central Bahamas through Fri. Elsewhere, the Atlantic
ridge will dominate the pattern from the central Atlantic through
the Bahamas, supporting gentle to moderate breezes and mostly
moderate seas.

$$
Ramos