997
AXNT20 KNHC 030426
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Tue Nov 3 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
Atlantic Gale Warning: Broad low pressure is expected to develop
along a trough, southwest of Bermuda, roughly from 27N to 28N,
Tue night through Wed, and track slowly east-northeastward
throughout the rest of the week. A broad zone of strong to gale-
force winds, and rough to very rough seas, peaking to around 16
ft, will develop north of the low pressure and expand eastward Wed
through Fri, impacting the waters mainly north of about 27N. The
gale-force winds are likely north of 29N from Wed afternoon
through Thu evening.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic from coastal Senegal near
13N16W to 10N20W to 08N30W. The ITCZ starts at 08N30W and extends
to 08N58W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted from 09N-13N east of 23W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms persist over the Straits of
Florida, associated with an upper low over the southeast Gulf. The
gradient between high pressure over the western Atlantic and
troughing over Florida is supporting fresh E winds and 5-7 ft seas
across the northeast Gulf. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds
persist elsewhere, except for SE winds over the far northwest
Gulf.

For the forecast, a cold front will reach along the Texas coast
late Tue afternoon, and move out over the NW Gulf Tue night
through Wed, followed briefly by moderate to fresh northwest to
north winds. The front will then weaken and dissipate Wed night.
Another cold front is expected to slowly move into the NW Gulf
waters Fri through Sat night, followed by moderate to fresh
northeast winds.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper trough over the northwest Caribbean is supporting
scattered showers and thunderstorms between 75W and 83W. High
pressure over the western Atlantic is supporting moderate E winds
and 3-5 ft seas across the eastern Caribbean, except for fresh
winds off northeast Caribbean. Gentle breezes and 1-3 ft seas are
noted over the western Caribbean.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas
across the central and eastern Caribbean will persist through
Tue. The pressure gradient across the region will then relax Tue
night through Sat as broad low pressure forms along the trough to
the SW of Bermuda and shifts east-northeastward throughout the
week, leading to overall weaker winds and diminishing seas across
the Caribbean basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N37W to 26N50W to 25N65W, where
that transitions to a shear line to 24N80W. Fresh to strong NE to
E winds and 8-11 ft seas continue north of the front and
shearline. Over the deep tropics, a few thunderstorms are active
along a trough extending along 48W from 14N to 20N. Farther east,
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are active south
of the Canary Islands. Gentle to moderate winds and 5-7 ft persist
elsewhere across the North Atlantic south of 31N.

For the forecast west of 55W, a lingering frontal trough meanders
from near 26N55W westward and through the central Bahamas along
25N. Strong high pressure across the eastern U.S. is building
eastward across the Atlantic waters north of the trough. The
resulting pressure gradient will maintain widespread fresh to
strong northeast to east winds and rough seas to 11 ft north of
the trough and west of 60W through Tue. Broad low pressure is
expected to develop along the trough, southwest of Bermuda,
roughly from 27N to 28N, Tue night through Wed, and track slowly
east-northeastward throughout the rest of the week. A broad zone
of strong to gale-force winds, and rough to very rough seas,
peaking to around 16 ft, will develop north of the low pressure
and expand eastward Wed through Fri, impacting the waters mainly
north of about 27N. The gale-force winds are likely north of 29N
from Wed afternoon through Thu evening. A weakening cold front
will slowly move across the waters between Florida and 75W Fri and
Fri night, dissipating Sat and Sat night.

$$
Christensen