059
AXNT20 KNHC 242147
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Jun 25 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is extending along 25W, from the
Cabo Verde Islands southward, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 05N to 13N between 20W and 25W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is noted along 55W, S of 12N,
moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is note from
08N to 12N between 50W and 56W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 63W, from the Virgin
Islands to Venezuela, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 10N to 14N between 61W and 65W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 72W, from 15N
S into western Venezuela, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted S of 14N between 70W and 74W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W and continues
southwestward to 07N30W. The ITCZ extends from 07N30W to
10N59W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 03N to 09N
between 26W and 50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Convection near the coast of Mexico has dissipated this afternoon,
leaving the basin dry. Weak high pressure centered in the NE Gulf
is leading to light to gentle mainly SE winds through the area,
except for moderate E winds offshore the western Yucatan
Peninsula, where a diurnally induced trough is pushing into the
Bay of Campeche. Seas are 2 to 4 ft.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds prevail across the basin
along with slight seas. Winds will pulse moderate to locally fresh
at night across the western Gulf through most of the week. Slight
seas will prevail through the week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

Divergence aloft, deep tropical moisture, and now the influence of
a tropical wave, are leading to increased convection over
Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and adjacent Caribbean waters. Similar
convection is noted off NW Colombia, off the eastern Yucatan, and
in the NE Caribbean. An expansive subtropical ridge centered
between Bermuda and the Azores extends southwestward into the
Caribbean Sea. The ridge is forcing fresh to locally strong
easterly winds in the south-central Caribbean. Seas in these
waters are 4-7 ft. Mainly moderate winds and slight to moderate
seas are prevalent elsewhere, although some fresh trades have
developed this afternoon offshore Honduras.

For the forecast, surface ridging prevails across the Atlantic
basin.  Winds are expected to pulse to strong speeds tonight near
the coast over the south- central basin. Moderate trade winds and
moderate seas will persist across the western basin through the
week, with strong winds pulsing in the Gulf of Honduras this
evening. Fresh to strong trades will accompany a tropical wave
moving across the eastern and central basin Tue through Thu. Winds
will also increase fresh to locally strong in the NW Caribbean
from this tropical wave later this week into the weekend, as well
as an increase in seas.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

Two surface troughs are analyzed over the western Atlantic. One
trough is analyzed over the western Bahamas, while the second
trough is from 28N67W to 24N73W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted in the vicinity of the second trough, which is being
enhanced by upper level divergence and deep tropical moisture. In
the remainder of the tropical Atlantic, Saharan dust and
subsidence allow for drier conditions.

An expansive subtropical ridge is centered between Bermuda and
the Azores. Moderate to fresh southwesterly winds and seas of 4-5
ft are occurring north of 30N and west of 75W. The pressure
gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in
the deep tropics sustain fresh NE-E winds south of 25N and
between 25W and 60W. Seas in these waters are 7 to 9 ft, with the
highest seas occurring near 15N55W. Elsewhere in the basin,
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, the ridge will shift NE tonight into
Tue and weaken through Thu. Fresh southerly winds and moderate
seas will prevail across the waters N of 30N and W of 75W through
tonight. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds will generally prevail
elsewhere across the region through Wed, becoming SE to S winds
W of 65W. Fresh to strong winds across the waters E of the Lesser
Antilles will prevail through tonight associated with the
passage of a tropical wave.

$$
Konarik