416
AXNT20 KNHC 132105
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon Sep 14 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 44W, south of 17N,
moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is found from 12N to 16N between 43W and 47W.

Another central Atlantic tropical wave is along 49.5W, south of
18N, moving westward at around 15 kt. A few showers are found
near this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic near 19N16W and continues
southwestward to 08N36W to 10N51W. The ITCZ extends from 10N51W
to near 12N61W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is observed from 04N to 11N between Africa and 44W. Similar
convection is noted near the Lesser Antilles from 11N to 17N
between 54W and 66W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted on satellite imagery
over the SE Gulf toward Tampa Bay, Florida southward to the
Florida Keys with a surface trough over the interior peninsula.
Isolated to widely scattered showers are also found from 24N to
28N between 87W and 97W due to moist SW flow. Otherwise, a 1018 mb
high is at the surface, analyzed near 28N87W. A weak pressure
pattern prevails over the basin with light to gentle anticyclonic
flow over the NE half of the basin along with 1-2 ft seas, and
moderate SE flow over the SW half of the basin along with 2-4 ft
seas.

For the forecast, weak high pressure centered over the NE Gulf
will continue to support relatively tranquil conditions to most of
the waters into Tue. The exception will be the Bay of Campeche,
where a diurnal trough will move westward offshore the Yucatan
Peninsula each evening, bringing nightly pulses of fresh NE winds.
Starting late Tue, stronger high pressure building southward from
the eastern United States will lead to increasing NE to E winds
over the basin, with speeds reaching fresh to strong and rough
seas over the northern Gulf Wed through Thu night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Other than the convection mentioned above, scattered moderate to
strong convection is in the SW Caribbean south of 12N near the
monsoon trough extending from the NE Pacific Ocean. A tight
pressure gradient is between the subtropical ridge north of the
islands and lower pressures in Colombia which continues to sustain
strong to near gale-force NE-E winds over much of the central
Caribbean. Rough seas are occurring in these waters. Fresh to
strong NE-E winds and seas of 4-7 ft are found in the Windward
Passage and Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to locally fresh easterly
winds and moderate seas are evident elsewhere south of 18N,
including the eastern Caribbean. Moderate or weaker winds and
slight to moderate seas prevail across the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between a subtropical
ridge north of the islands and lower pressures associated with
the Colombian Low will continue to support strong to near-gale
easterly trade winds and rough seas over the central Caribbean for
the next several days. Strong winds are expected tonight in the
Gulf of Honduras. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh easterly breezes
are expected over the next few days in the eastern Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Of note, Meteo-France has issued a gale warning for the ongoing
easterly gap wind event over the Straits of Gibraltar. This
warning will continue through 14/06Z.

A weak surface trough is analyzed in the central Atlantic from
29N47W to 20N43W with isolated to scattered moderate convection
within 180 nm mainly east of the trough. Otherwise, 1019 mb high
pressure is analyzed at 27N69W with only isolated convection found
across the remainder of the basin aside from the tropical waves
and monsoon trough/ITCZ discussed above. A rather weak pressure
gradient dominates the tropical Atlantic with moderate or weaker
winds across the waters, except moderate to fresh in the NE
waters, and fresh winds from northern Hispaniola to the Windward
Passage. Seas of 3-4 ft dominate the waters north of 10N and west
of 55W across the offshore waters zones, and 4-locally 6 ft
elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, trades north of Hispaniola into the
Windward Passage will be fresh into Mon. On Tue, strong high
pressure building southward through the eastern United States will
bring a cold front into the NW waters, increasing NE winds to
fresh to locally strong and causing seas to build to rough N of
the Bahamas and W of 70W through Wed night. During the middle to
later portion of the week, a trough of low pressure is forecast to
move west- northwestward into the NE portion of the waters,
bringing thunderstorms.

$$
Lewitsky