814
AXNT20 KNHC 162009
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Wed Jul 16 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1702 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Northeastern and north-central Gulf (AL93): Surface and radar
observations indicate that a broad area of low pressure is
moving westward across the Florida Panhandle between Tallahassee
and Panama City. The associated shower and thunderstorm activity
is disorganized and located mainly south and southwest of the
center. This system is forecast to continue moving westward, and
could emerge or redevelop over the far northeastern to north-
central portion of the Gulf later today or tonight, reaching the
coast of Louisiana by Thursday. If this system moves far enough
offshore, environmental conditions over the Gulf appear
generally favorable for additional development, and a tropical
depression could still form over the next couple of days before
the system moves fully inland by the end of the week.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce
localized flash flooding over portions of Florida through
through today.  Heavy rainfall could also cause flash flooding
for portions of the north-central Gulf Coast beginning late
today and continuing through Friday. For additional information,
please refer to products issued by the Weather Prediction Center
and your local National Weather Service office. This system has
a medium chance of tropical cyclone development during the next
48 hours and also during the next 7 days. Please refer to the
latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 22.5W, south of
22N, moving westward at around 5 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is observed from 10N to 14N and east of 25.5W.

A tropical wave is entering the Caribbean Sea and is along 61W,
south of 20N. Isolated convection is depicted from 12N to 14N
along the wave axis.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave has been relocated based on
satellite imagery and tropical wave diagnostics. The wave axis
is analyzed along 74W, south of 20N. No significant convection
is depicted at this time in association with this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 15N17W and continues
southwestward to 07N40W. The ITCZ extends from 07N40W to
06.5N53W.
Scattered moderate convection is found from 06N to 10N between
25.5W and 34W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please see the Special Features section for more information on
AL93 over the Florida Panhandle.

Complex middle to upper level low pressure extends from the
Bahamas westward across the eastern Gulf. Broad low to middle
level cyclonic circulation continues to force clusters of
moderate to strong convection across the NE Gulf that are
shifting westward across the waters south of the Florida/Alabama
state line to Louisiana. Recent scatterometer data depicted near-
gale force winds within the strongest convection. Elsewhere,
scattered moderate convection is noted across much of the SE
Gulf waters including the Florida Straits, while generally dry
conditions prevail west of 91W. A 1016 mb high is centered near
25N93W. This pattern is producing a weak pressure gradient
across the Gulf, supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight
to moderate seas across the basin, except for moderate to
locally fresh winds over the Florida Big Bend offshore waters.

For the forecast, a broad area of low pressure, Invest AL93, is
centered inland over the Florida Panhandle, and troughing extends
southwestward to near 26.5N89W. This system is forecast to
continue moving westward, and could emerge or redevelop over the
far northeastern to north-central portion of the Gulf later today
or tonight, reaching the coast of Louisiana by Thursday. If this
system moves far enough offshore, environmental conditions over
the Gulf appear generally favorable for additional development,
and a tropical depression could still form over the next couple of
days before the system moves fully inland by the end of the week.
Regardless of development, heavy showers and thunderstorms are
expected over the north-central Gulf through Fri, and erratic
gusty winds and rough seas will be possible near convection. There
is a medium chance of formation within the next 48 hours.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Tropical Wave section for more information of the
tropical waves moving across the basin.

A sharp upper level trough extends from the central Bahamas
southward across eastern Cuba and the Windward Passage. This
feature is providing lift to support scattered moderate convection
over the NW Caribbean, mainly affecting the waters south of Cuba.
Fair and stable conditions generally prevail across the rest of
the basin. An Atlantic 1025 mb high pressure is centered near
32N61W, and extends a ridge westward to the North Carolina coast.
The pressure gradient south of the ridge is forcing fresh to
strong easterly winds and seas of 6-10 ft in the central Caribbean
south of 16N, with the strongest winds and highest seas occurring
off northern Colombia. Mainly moderate easterly breezes and
moderate seas are prevalent in the eastern Caribbean. Moderate or
weaker winds and slight seas are found elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas will
occur over the central Caribbean, including through the Windward
Passage, through Thu as a tight pressure gradient prevails between
high pressure in the central Atlantic and low pressure over
northern Colombia. Strong E winds and rough to locally very rough
seas will continue and expand into the west-central basin Thu
night through Sat morning as the pressure gradient strengthens
further. Periods of near-gale force winds will be possible
offshore of northern Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela each
night and early morning into Sat. Winds and seas will diminish
slightly Sat into early next week. Elsewhere, pulsing moderate to
fresh E to NE winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras each
afternoon and evening into this weekend. Otherwise, moderate to
fresh trade winds and moderate seas will occur in the eastern
basin into next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Tropical Wave section for more information of the
tropical waves moving across the basin.

A cold front extends from 31N34W to 23N48W, followed by a
trough that extends to 25N54W. The rest of the basin is dominated
by an expansive subtropical ridge centered over the central
Atlantic along 32N. The pressure gradient between this ridge and
lower pressures associated with Invest 93L over the Florida
Panhandle is sustaining moderate to fresh SE winds and moderate
seas west of 77W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
occurring north and south of the Bahamas. South of 27N, between
55W and the Bahamas, moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate
seas prevail. Moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas
are present between 40W and the Lesser Antilles and south of 20N.
In the rest of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and moderate
seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to locally fresh E to SE
winds are expected north of the Greater Antilles to 27N and off
the coast of Florida west of 75W through Thu as a strong pressure
gradient prevails between high pressure in the central Atlantic
and low pressure over northern Colombia. Occasional strong winds
and rough seas are expected off the coast of northern Hispaniola
this afternoon into early Sat. Winds will diminish off the coast
of Florida by early Fri, and north of the Greater Antilles and
over the Bahamas by Sat morning. South of 20N, moderate to
occasionally fresh trade winds and moderate seas will occur
through this weekend.

$$
KRV