954
AXNT20 KNHC 021800
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Tue Sep 2 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic is along
26.5W, from 18N southward, moving toward the west around 10 to 15
kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 08N to 14N
between 26N and 36W. Environmental conditions remain conducive for
gradual development of this system during the next several days,
and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this
weekend. This system is expected to initially move slowly
westward and then gradually accelerate westward to west-
northwestward at around 15 mph across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic into early next week. There is a low chance of
tropical formation within the next 48 hours, and a high chance
within the next 7 days. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather
Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

The axis of a tropical wave in the central Atlantic is along 54W,
from 19N southward, moving toward the west around 15 to 20 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 07N to 13N
between 48W and 62W.

The axis of a tropical wave in the far western Caribbean is along
87W/88W from 19N southward, moving toward the west around 10 to
15 kt. No significant convection is occurring near this wave in
the Caribbean at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 09N38W. The
ITCZ continues from 09N38W to 09N53W, and resumes from 09.5N54.5W
to 10.5N63W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 08N
to 12N east of 25W, and from 05N to 12N between 36W and 48W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary from extends from south Florida near 26N81W
northwestward through the central Gulf of America and to 28N97W
along the Texas coast. Scattered moderate convection is occurring
near this front, and gusty and erratic winds and rapidly building
seas are likely near thunderstorms. Recent scatterometer satellite
data show moderate NE winds are occurring north of the front in
the northeastern and north-central Gulf, and moderate W winds
occurring to the south through the Straits of Florida. Elsewhere,
gentle winds and slight seas are noted over the rest of the basin
as a weak pressure gradient prevails over the region.

For the forecast, the aforementioned stationary front will
gradually dissipate through Wed. The front will continue to
generate scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, mainly
across the northern Gulf. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient in
place will maintain gentle to moderate winds with slight to
locally moderate seas through Sat night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between low pressure over northern Colombia
and the subtropical ridge to the north is maintaining moderate to
fresh trade winds across the west-central through eastern
Caribbean Sea, as observed on recent scatterometer satellite data.
Seas of 3 to 5 ft are noted over this region, with 6 to 7 ft seas
occurring offshore of northwestern Colombia. Gentle to moderate E
to SE winds and slight seas prevail over the northwestern
Caribbean. Otherwise, the eastern extension of the Pacific monsoon
trough is generating heavy showers and thunderstorms over the
southwestern basin offshore of Costa Rica through Panama.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge combined with the Colombian
low will support moderate to fresh trades along with moderate seas
across much of the central Caribbean through Sat. Fresh to
locally strong winds are expected to pulse at night off Colombia
and the Gulf of Venezuela through Fri. In addition, moderate to
fresh winds will prevail in the Gulf of Honduras through the
forecast period.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1009 mb low has been analyzed off the coast of central Florida
near 29N78W, and a stationary front extends to the southwest to
26N80W through the central Gulf of America, and to the northeast
to 31N73W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring to
the east of these features, from north of Cuba to 28N and west of
73W, with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms noted
farther north to 31N. Recent scatterometer satellite data show
moderate to fresh NE winds are occurring north of the front
offshore of Florida, with locally strong winds noted north of 30N
and west of 79W. East of the front, moderate to locally fresh SW
winds and moderate seas prevail. Elsewhere, a surface trough has
been analyzed from 26N51W to 30N50W, and moderate to locally fresh
S to SE winds are occurring near this trough. The rest of the
Atlantic basin is dominated by a 1027 mb high centered near
35N28.5W, and ridging extends over the waters, maintaining
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas west of 20W. East of
20W, fresh to locally strong NE winds and rough seas prevail due
to a tighter pressure gradient with lower pressure over NW Africa.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned stationary front
will persist through Thu. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds with
moderate seas are expected in the wake of the front through
tonight. Elsewhere, the Atlantic ridge will continue to dominate
the weather pattern across the forecast waters, supporting gentle
to moderate winds and mostly moderate seas.

$$
ADAMS