232
AXNT20 KNHC 142313
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sat Jun 14 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 32W from 15N
southward, moving westward around 15 kt. Isolated showers are
observed along the ITCZ near the south end of wave axis.

Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 42W-43w from 15N
southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. A few showers are
observed from 07N to 10N between 40W and 43W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 72W from 17N
southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is observed S of 15.5N between 69W and
76W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 87W-88W, from the Gulf
of Honduras southward, extending across Honduras and Nicaragua
into the eastern Pacific. The wave is moving westward at around 10
kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed across eastern
portions of the Gulf of Honduras.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 09.5N27W. The
ITCZ extends from 06N34W to 04N41W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is observed from 03.5N northward to 11N and E
of 24W. No other significant convection is seen in the region.

The East Pacific monsoon trough extends across the far SW
Caribbean from 10N73W to low pressure 1012 mb near 11.5N78W to
11.5N81W and across northern Costa Rica. Clusters of scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is observed across areas S of
13N and W of 74W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

An upper level trough over the central US extends S-SW into the
north central Gulf, and is supporting scattered showers and
thunderstorms in the NE Gulf, generally to the N of 28N. More
widespread and significant convection is occurring across much of
the SE U.S. A surface trough is analyzed in the SW Gulf along
94W-95W with a few showers near the trough axis. The rest of the
Gulf is mainly influenced by the western periphery of the Atlantic
subtropical ridge, extending westward across Florida and into the
N central Gulf. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower
pressures in Mexico is resulting in moderate to fresh SE to S winds
over much of the western and central Gulf waters. Seas in the
area described are 3-5 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
slight seas prevail, locally 3-4 ft in the Straits of Florida.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong E to NE winds will
pulse each afternoon and evening through next week north of the
Yucatan Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of Campeche as a diurnal
trough develops and treks westward across the region. Otherwise,
ridging over the western Atlantic will continue to extend into the
eastern Gulf to maintain moderate S to SE winds and moderate seas
over the central and western Gulf of America through the middle
of next week, with gentle to locally moderate SE winds and slight
to moderate seas in the eastern basin.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
sections for details on convection in the Caribbean.

An upper level trough extends from the central Atlantic W-SW
through the Windward Passage and into the NE Caribbean west of
Jamaica. This feature is supporting convection over Central
America and near the monsoon trough. A broad Atlantic ridge
continues to dominate the Atlantic basin, extending from the
central Atlantic along 32N westward across Florida. The pressure
gradient between this subtropical ridge and lower pressure over
Colombia and the SW Caribbean continues to support fresh to
locally strong easterly trade winds across the eastern and central
Caribbean, extending westward to just E of the Gulf of Honduras.
Seas in these waters are 6-10 ft. Elsewhere, moderate winds and
moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds are expected to
persist across the central and west-central Caribbean through the
middle of next week as a strong pressure gradient prevails
between high pressure to the north and low pressure in the south-
central Caribbean. Rough seas in E swell will continue in this
region. Fresh to strong E to SE winds will also occur each night
and morning in the Gulf of Honduras, and these winds will expand
through much of the northwestern Caribbean early next week after
the passage of a tropical wave. Elsewhere, locally rough seas in E
swell will occur east of the Lesser Antilles and through the
passages into the eastern Caribbean into Sun. Otherwise, mainly
moderate winds and seas are expected across the rest of the basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The broad subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic dominates
the tropical Atlantic waters, centered on 1028 mb high pressure
near 32N54W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower
pressures in the deep tropics supports fresh easterly winds south
of 22N and west of 40W, including through the Windward Passage.
Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. In the eastern Atlantic, moderate
to locally strong N-NE winds and seas of 6-9 ft are noted north
of 20N and east of 20W, becoming moderate NE winds between 20W and
40W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas
prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to locally fresh trade
winds will persist south of 25N through the middle of next week
as high pressure prevails over the central Atlantic. Locally
strong winds will be possible just north of Hispaniola by the
middle of next week. Elsewhere, moderate S to SW winds will pulse
offshore of Florida into the middle of next week as low pressure
continues over the eastern United States. Otherwise, mainly
gentle to locally moderate winds and moderate seas are expected
elsewhere north of 25N through next week.

$$
Stripling