432
AXNT20 KNHC 272307
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Nov 28 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2305 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is confined to the African continent. The
ITCZ extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 09N13W to 08N35W
and to 06N54W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from
05N to 15N and between 25W and 45W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front extends from SW Florida to northern Veracruz,
Mexico. Scattered showers to isolated thunderstorms are found
south of 25N, especially in the Bay of Campeche. A dry airmass
prevails behind the frontal boundary, allowing for generally dry
conditions. The pressure gradient between a strong high pressure
over the central United States and the cold front result in fresh
to strong N-NE winds behind the front, along with seas of 5-10
ft. Fresh to near gale-force NW winds and rough seas are noted
off Veracruz. Elsewhere in the Gulf, moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, a cold front extending from near Sarasota, Florida to
near Tampico, Mexico is moving southward across the Gulf with
active showers and thunderstorms ahead of it. The front is expected
to exit the Gulf to the southeast by Fri morning, with scattered
showers and thunderstorms continuing along and ahead of the front
tonight. Fresh to strong NE winds will follow in the wake of the
cold front, with conditions improving Fri night through Sat. Fresh
to strong return flow will set up in the NW Gulf Fri night and
Sat, ahead of the next front. This next cold front will emerge off
the Texas coast early Sun morning and meander slowly
southeastward across the NW and N central Gulf Sun through Mon
before moving southeastward Mon night and Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Divergence aloft and convergent surface winds continue to support
scattered showers across the SW Caribbean Sea, while generally
drier conditions are found in the rest of the basin. A strong
ridge north of the islands forces fresh to strong easterly trade
winds in the central and SW Caribbean, with the strongest winds
occurring off northern Colombia. Seas in these waters are 8-12
ft. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are
present in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, light to gentle
winds and slight to moderate seas are evident.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between strong high pressure
over the central Atlantic and lower pressure over the SW Caribbean
will sustain strong to near gale-force trades over the SW and
south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela, through
Fri morning before diminishing. Moderate to fresh trades are
expected elsewhere in the eastern and central basin through Sun.
A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean early Fri morning,
followed by fresh to strong NE winds. The front is expected to
stall from central Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula Fri night, then
gradually dissipate over the NW Caribbean on Sat. A very weak
pressure gradient across the region Mon and Tue will lead to
tranquil marine conditions.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N75W to SE Florida, generating
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms ahead of the
boundary. Fresh NW winds and moderate seas are noted behind the
front, while fresh to locally strong SW winds and moderate seas
are evident ahead of the front, north of 29N and west of 72W.

A stationary front in the central Atlantic extends southwestward
from 31N35W to 26N49W. Fresh NE winds and 7-9 ft seas are north
of the front. North of Hispaniola and on approach to the Windward
Passage, E winds are pulsing to fresh speeds. Elsewhere, high
pressure prevails across the Atlantic waters, supporting moderate
or weaker winds and moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the pressure gradient between a
1030 mb high over the central Atlantic and low pressure across
the SW Caribbean will sustain fresh E winds south of 22N and in
the approach to the Windward Passage through tonight before
diminishing on Fri. A cold front across the NW waters extends
from 31N77W to Cape Canaveral, and is followed by fresh NW to N
winds. The cold front will move southeastward and extend from
31N72W to the Florida Straits tonight, from 31N64W through the
central Bahamas by Fri night, and then dissipate from 31N58W the
NW Bahamas by Sun morning. A tight pressure gradient in the wake
of the front will produce increasing NE winds across much of the
forecast area Sat, diminishing from west to east Sun.

$$
Delgado