237
AXNT20 KNHC 310444
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sun Aug 31 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0443UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 35.5W, south of 19N,
moving westward 5 to 10  kt. No significant convection is
occurring near this wave.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 66W, south of 18N,
moving westward around 20 kt. No significant convection is
occurring near this wave.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is now over the Eastern Pacific.
Please refer to the Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
for more details on this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N16.5W and continues
southwestward to 10.5N41W. The ITCZ extends from 10.5N41W to
13N59W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 15N
east of 28.5W.

The eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough reaches
across the far SW Caribbean. Isolated moderate convection is
ongoing S of 12N between 74W and 81W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak stationary front extends from the Florida Big Bend area to
the SE Louisiana coast. This front is producing isolated moderate
convection N of 28N. An upper level trough is supporting numerous
moderate convection over the southeastern Gulf including the
Straits of Florida. A surface trough is also analyzed over the
Yucatan Peninsula and is supporting numerous moderate convection
over the eastern Bay of Campeche. Otherwise at the surface, weak
ridging prevails, supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight
seas.

For the forecast, the aforementioned front will sag south tonight
into Mon, then meander over the north-central and northeast Gulf
through early next week, bringing showers and isolated
thunderstorms to the area. The stronger thunderstorms will induce
locally hazardous winds and seas. Elsewhere, the weak gradient in
place will maintain mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to
locally moderate seas through the period.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for
details on convection in the basin.

An upper level trough north of the area and tropical moisture
combine to produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in
the NW Caribbean and the water between Hispaniola and Jamaica.
The subtropical ridge north of the islands continues to sustain
moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas in the
central Caribbean, with locally strong winds just offshore of
Colombia. Elsewhere, locally fresh E winds are occurring in the
Gulf of Honduras. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate
seas are evident elsewhere in the Caribbean.

For the forecast, the unsettled weather over the NW Caribbean will
continue into early next week. Otherwise, Atlantic high pressure
in combination with low pressure over northern Colombia will
support fresh to strong trades along with moderate to locally
rough seas across much of the central Caribbean through early next
week. Later, moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and
moderate seas will prevail across the central and eastern
Caribbean through the workweek.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak stationary front extends from a 1012 mb low off NE Florida
to near Daytona Beach, Florida, with a surface trough extending
southward offshore Florida through the NW Bahamas. Both features
are leading to scattered thunderstorms N of Cuba and W of
75W. Farther east, a couple of surface troughs are also producing
scattered showers and thunderstorms N of 23.5N between 55W and
68.5W. The remainder of the SW North Atlantic is under the
influence of a subtropical ridge that maintains generally moderate
or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas.

The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a 1031 mb near
41.5N36.5W. This ridge forces moderate to locally fresh easterly
winds and moderate to rough seas north of 20N and east of 58W.
Strong NE winds and rough seas are evident off Morocco due to a
tighter pressure gradient in the region. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned low pres will
track NE to E, dragging the front southward across much of
Florida. Behind the low, NE to E winds will increase to fresh to
strong N of the front, mainly N of 29N and W of 77W Sun night into
Tue. Elsewhere, high pressure will remain in control of the
general weather pattern providing for a gentle to moderate
anticyclonic wind flow.

$$
KRV