050
AXNT20 KNHC 260540
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Wed Nov 26 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough stays mostly across central Africa. An ITCZ
extends westward from near the coastal border of Guinea-Bissau and
Sierra Leone to 08N25W to 06N43W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is present near the ITCZ from 05N to 10N between the
coast of Sierra Leone/Liberia and 28W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is causing
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Caribbean
waters near Costa Rica and western Panama.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak cold front curves southwestward from near New Orleans,
Louisiana to south of Houston near 28N94W, then continues as a
stationary front to near the mouth of the Rio Grande, Texas.
Widely scattered showers are seen up to 50 nm along either side
of this boundary. A surface trough is triggering scattered
moderate convection at the west-central Gulf. Otherwise, a broad
surface ridge continues to dominate the rest of the Gulf. Moderate
to fresh NE to E winds with 3 to 5 ft seas are present off the
Yucatan Peninsula and at the eastern Bay of Campeche. Gentle to
moderate E to SSE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail elsewhere
in the Gulf.

For the forecast, a stronger cold front will reach the
northwestern Gulf early on Wed and steadily sweep across the
Gulf. The cold front should extend from the western Florida
peninsula to near Tampico tomorrow night, from the Florida Straits
to near Veracruz Thu night, and then exit the Gulf by Fri
morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may accompany the
cold front. Fresh to strong NE winds will follow in the wake of
the cold front with conditions improving by Fri night. Fresh to
strong return flow should set up in the northwestern Gulf Fri
night and Sat. Looking ahead, the next cold front may emerge from
the Texas coast Sat night and progress southeastward across the
Gulf on Sun.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent trade winds are creating scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms at the Gulf of Honduras, and near the ABC Islands.
Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection
in the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong with locally near-gale ENE
to E winds and seas at 8 to 10 ft are present at the south-central
basin. Fresh with locally strong ENE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are
seen across the north-central and the eastern portion of the
western basin, including the Mona Passage. Gentle to moderate ENE
to E winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the
basin.

For the forecast, the tight pressure gradient between high
pressure north of the basin and lower pressures over NW Colombia
will sustain fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas
in the central Caribbean through early Fri. The strongest winds of
25 to 30 kt, and highest seas peaking near 12 ft are expected
offshore Colombia mainly at night. In the remainder of the basin,
the weather pattern will support moderate to fresh winds along
with moderate seas through early Fri. Looking ahead, a cold front
will slowly enter the NW Caribbean on Fri, followed by strong
winds and rough seas through Fri night. The front may stall and
wash out over the NW Caribbean by Sat with conditions gradually
improving for the remainder of the weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front curves southwestward from the north-central
Atlantic across 31N46W to 27N63W, then continues westward as a
stationary front to 28N71W. Widely scattered showers and seen near
and up to 50 nm south of this features. Farther east, a surface
trough is coupling with an upper-level trough to trigger scattered
moderate convection north of 22N between 41W and 45W. Convergent
trade winds are generating widely scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms near the southern Windward Islands. Refer to the
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section at the very beginning for additional
convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 5 to 8 ft seas are evident up
to 80 nm along either side of the cold/stationary front, and also
at the Bahama Bank near the Turks and Caicos Islands. Outside
these two areas, gentle to moderate NE to SSE winds and seas of 4
to 6 ft are noted north of 20N between 45W and the Florida/southern
Georgia coast. To the east, Gentle ENE to E winds and seas at 5 to
7 ft in moderate NE swell exist north of 20N between 35W and 45W.
For the tropical Atlantic from 07N to 20N between 35W and the
Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate NE to ENE winds and seas of 5
to 6 ft are present. Light to gentle winds with 4 to 6 ft seas in
mixed moderate swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic
Basin west of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh NE winds along the
aforementioned cold/stationary front east of 65W will diminish
on Wed, as the front dissipates. The Bermuda High to the north of
the front is helping to sustain fresh to strong ENE winds in the
approach to the Windward Passage tonight and Wed night before
diminishing on Thu. On Wed evening, a cold front will emerge off the
northeastern Florida coast, bringing with it fresh to strong NE
winds behind the front. This cold front should extend from near
Bermuda to the Florida Straits Thu night, from 31N62W to the
central Bahamas by Fri night, and then dissipate by Sat night. A
tightened pressure gradient in the wake of the front is forecast
to bring increasing winds across the western Atlantic Sat, before
gradually diminishing from west to east Sun.

$$

Chan