502
AXNT20 KNHC 090506
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Thu Oct 9 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Jerry is centered near 15.2N 56.1W at 09/0300 UTC
or 440 nm ESE of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving WNW at 16
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are
currently around 24 ft. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong
convection is noted from 10N to 17N between 51W and 58W. On the
forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near or to
the northeast of the northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and
Thursday night. Swells generated by Jerry are expected to reach
the Leeward and Windward Islands on Thursday, then spread westward
toward the Greater Antilles on Friday. These swells are likely to
cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Jerry
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.

Significant Rainfall Across Eastern Mexico: Disorganized showers
and thunderstorms continue with a trough of low pressure moving
westward across the Bay of Campeche and eastern Mexico. Areas of
heavy rain and gusty winds are likely across portions of southern
Mexico during the next day or so. Please, stay up to date with
the latest forecast and possible flood statements from your local
weather agency.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 29W, from 20N
southward, and moving W at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted along 10N, where the wave meets the ITCZ.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 68W, from 21N
southward, moving W at around 10 kt. No significant convection is
noted with this wave at this time.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is noted 80W, moving W at
around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted across the
northern half of the wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic near 11N16W to 10N20W.
The ITCZ continues from 10N20W to 10N27W, then resumes W of a
tropical wave near 08N32W to 04N50W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted along the ITCZ between 23W-39W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please refer to the Special Features section on potential heavy
rain across eastern Mexico.

Fresh to strong winds are near this convection, along with rough
seas. Otherwise, a fairly flat and broad pressure pattern
prevails over the remainder of the basin with moderate to fresh
NE-E winds and moderate seas N of 24.5N, with gentle to moderate
NE-E winds and slight seas S of 24.5N away from the SW Gulf.

For the forecast, disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue
across the SW Gulf associated with a low level trough moving
westward across the Bay of Campeche and into coastal Mexico
tonight. Winds and seas across the Mexican waters from Veracruz to
Cabo Rojo will slowly subside during the next several hours as
the trough shifts westward and further inland. Elsewhere, a
building high pressure ridge north of the Gulf will promote fresh
to strong NE winds over the NE Gulf from Thu night through early
Sat. Looking ahead, winds and seas across the entire Gulf should
be quiescent from Sun through early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section about Tropical Storm
Jerry, and the Tropical Waves section for details on two waves in
the basin.

Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient prevails across the Caribbean,
with gentle to locally moderate E-SE winds dominating the waters.
Seas are slight across the majority of the basin, except higher
in and near Atlantic passages due to both NE and SE swells. Other
than the convection associated with the W Caribbean tropical wave,
scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted from near the coast
to offshore N Colombia, and near the coast of Panama due to the
eastward extension of the east Pacific monsoon trough. Some
additional activity is noted N of the Gulf of Honduras to the E of
Belize.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Jerry will move to 16.4N 58.3W
Thu morning, near 18.0N 60.6W Thu evening, just east of the N
Leeward Islands, strengthen to a hurricane near 20.1N 62.2W Fri
morning to the north of the N Leeward Islands, then move northward
and away from the Caribbean on Fri and Sat. No significant winds
or seas from Jerry are expected to impact the Caribbean, except
for large E then NE swell bleeding through the Caribbean passages
of the Leeward Islands Thu afternoon through night, and then the
Anegada and Mona Passages early Fri through Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for more details on
Tropical Storm Jerry, and the Tropical Waves section for details
on the tropical wave moving across the E Atlantic.

A stationary front extends southwestward from 31N38W to 28N57W,
then a shearline continues from that point to 27N66W. S of the
front, recent scatterometer data depicts a trough, which is
analyzed from 23N52W to 24N59W. Scattered moderate convection
prevails in the vicinity of these features N of 19N between
34W-70W. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds are noted across the waters
N of the front. A ridge extends across the waters SE of the front
and to the N of Jerry from 31N30W to 23N55W. Gentle to moderate
anticyclonic winds are noted right under the ridge. Moderate to
fresh NE-E trades extend from offshore northern Africa to the SE
of the ridge across the waters N of the monsoon trough and ITCZ,
with rough seas, except for strong winds near the N coast of
Africa and near the Canary Islands. Moderate or weaker winds are
found across the remainder of the waters. Moderate seas are noted
across the remainder of the waters away from Jerry, except slight
seas inside the Bahamas.

For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Storm Jerry will move to
16.4N 58.3W Thu morning, near 18.0N 60.6W Thu evening, just east
of the N Leeward Islands, strengthen to a hurricane near 20.1N
62.2W Fri morning to the north of the N Leeward Islands, reach
near 22.5N 62.8W Fri evening, near 27.4N 62.2W Sat evening, and
near 31.2N 60.5W Sun evening. Jerry will change little in
intensity early next week as it moves eastward across the central
Atlantic. An extratropical low pressure system is expected to
develop offshore of central Florida Fri night and move
northeastward through the weekend. Fresh to strong E winds should
occur north of a warm frontal boundary near 30N Fri night and Sat.
West of a developing cold front, fresh to strong N to NE winds
and building seas will occur across the Florida coastal waters
north of the NW Bahamas from Fri night into Sun morning.

$$
ERA