721
AXNT20 KNHC 292340
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sat Aug 30 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 24W from 20N
southward, and moving west around 10 kt. No significant convection
is occurring near this wave.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 54W from 15N southward,
and moving west around 10 kt. It is within a plume of Sahara
Dust, and there is no significant convection occurring near this
wave.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has been repositioned, and is
near 77W from 19N southward. No significant convection is
occurring near this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of
Mauritania near 20N16W then extends southwestward to 11N48W.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring south
of the monsoon trough to around 05N, between 25W and 45W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front meanders westward from northern Florida across
the Gulf States to beyond central Louisiana. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are occurring near the coast of Louisiana,
Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Big Bend. A surface trough
has been analyzed in the central Bay of Campeche, and moderate N
to NE winds are noted in the eastern bay and off the northern
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Otherwise, a 1017 mb high over
the east-central Gulf is dominating the remainder of the basin
with light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas.

For the forecast, the aforementioned stationary front will linger
through the weekend, then shift southward some as a cold front
early next week as low pressure develops along it and tracks
northeastward to east of the southeastern U.S. coast. The front
will help maintain unsettled weather conditions, with locally
hazardous winds and seas mainly along and just offshore the
northern Gulf coast through the weekend. Some of these conditions
may spread southward some over the offshore waters. The weak
gradient in place will maintain mainly gentle to moderate winds
and slight to locally moderate seas through the period.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent trade winds are coupling with divergent flow aloft to
trigger scattered showers across the southeastern basin, including
waters near the ABC Islands. Similar synoptic conditions are
producing numerous heavy showers and scattered thunderstorms near
the coast of Honduras and Nicaragua, and over the northwestern
Caribbean. Fresh to strong E to ESE winds and 8 ft seas are
evident at the south-central basin. Moderate to fresh E to ESE
winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are noted in the north-central and
west-central basin. Light to gentle winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are
seen near Costa Rica and Panama. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds
and seas of 2 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, scattered showers and thunderstorms in the
southeastern Caribbean are not presently associated with a
tropical wave, but are expected to persist into Sat, at which time
a tropical wave will approach the Lesser Antilles and the eastern
Caribbean. Another tropical wave, currently along 77W, will move
across the rest of the central Caribbean today, then across the
western part of the basin Sat through Sun night. Otherwise,
Atlantic high pressure in combination with low pressure over
northern Colombia will maintain fresh to strong trades along with
moderate to rough seas across much of the central Caribbean
through early next week. The coverage of these winds is forecast
to shrink starting early on Tue.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front curves southwestward from west of Bermuda
across 31N73W to northern Florida. Scattered moderate convection
is occurring near this front. Converging southerly winds are
generating scattered heavy showers and isolated strong
thunderstorms from 23N to 28N between 75W and Florida coast. A
surface trough has been analyzed from 26N65W to 24N68W, and this
feature combined with convergent SE winds are producing scattered
moderate convection north of 23N between 62W and 70W. Another
surface trough extends from 23N56W to 29N56W, leading to
scattered thunderstorms from 24N to 29N between 54W and 58W.

The subtropical ridge related to a 1026 mb high near 36N31W is
supporting gentle to moderate ENE to SSE winds and seas of 5 to 8
ft south of 20N between 35W and 65W/Lesser Antilles. Mainly
gentle winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are noted north of 20N between 65W
and the Florida/southern Georgia coast. A pair of surface trough
is leading to moderate to locally fresh E winds and 4 to 7 ft seas
north of 20N and east of 55W.

For the forecast west of 55W, low pressure is expected to form
along the aforementioned stationary front west of the area and
track ENE to offshore the southeastern United States Sat night
through Mon. As this happens, the stationary front will transition
to a cold front that will slowly sink southward through late Mon.
Behind it, strengthening high pressure will surge southward along
the southeastern U.S. coast increasing the gradient behind the
front leading to fresh northeast to east winds N of 29N and W of
79W Mon night into Tue. Expect for the scattered showers and
thunderstorms to continue through the weekend, except into early
next week for the northwest portion of the area. Elsewhere, high
pressure will remain in control of the general weather pattern
providing for a gentle to moderate anticyclonic wind flow.

$$
ADAMS