639
AXNT20 KNHC 162306
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon Nov 17 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains inland over Africa. The ITCZ extends
from near the Sierra Leone/Guinea border to 07N30W to 08N60W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 08N between 10W and
40W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak ridge dominates the Gulf region supporting gentle to moderate
southerly winds over the western Gulf, and mainly light winds over
the eastern Gulf, with the exception of gentle to moderate NW winds
over the far NE Gulf due to the presence of a low pressure system
over the E of the United States. Seas are in general 1 to 3 ft.

For the forecast, relatively weak high pressure cells centered
over the central and southeastern Gulf will generally maintain
gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow across the basin through
Mon. Afterward, stronger high pressure that moves offshore the
Mid-Atlantic region will build south-southwestward across the
northern Gulf through the rest of the period, with its associated
gradient resulting in fresh to strong southeast to south winds
across most of basin, with the strong wind speeds expected mainly
in the NW Gulf as a cold front moves across central Texas. Seas
are expected to become rough with these winds. The cold front may
push to just offshore the Texas coast late Fri and become stationary.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is analyzed over the NW Caribbean and runs from
the eastern Isle of Youth to near Cabo Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua.
This system is producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are W of the trough axis to about
84W and N of 20N. Similar wind speeds are over the south-central
Caribbean offshore Colombia. Gentle to moderate winds are blowing
across the Windward Passage and downwind to the regional waters
of Jamaica. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail. Seas are in
general 2 to 4 ft across the basin. High clouds are noted over
much of the east and central Caribbean associated with strong
westerly winds aloft. A surface trough is located E of the Windward
Islands along 59W producing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient over the area will generally
maintain gentle to moderate trade winds across the basin into early
Tue. The trade winds will then increase to mostly fresh speeds over
just about the entire basin, including in the lee of Cuba and south
of Hispaniola during the rest of the period as western Atlantic high
pressure expands southeastward toward the Greater Antilles while
at the same time the Colombian low becomes evident. Fresh northeast
winds are expected in the Windward Passage Wed through early Fri.
Otherwise, pulses of moderate long period northeast swell will
continue to impact the waters east of the Lesser Antilles as well
as the Caribbean passages through early Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the forecast area near 31N45W and extends SW
to near 26N50W where it transitions to a stationary front that
continues SW to near 20N70W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are near the front, more concentrated toward the southern end of
the frontal boundary. Rough seas in NW swell are observed on
either side of the front N of 26N. A low pressure system dominates
the eastern of the United States and also covers N Florida and
the western Atlantic. Fresh to strong westerly winds associated
with this system are affecting the waters N of 29N and W of 65W.
Farther E, another cold front crosses just S of the Canary Islands.
High pressure dominates the remainder of the east and central
Atlantic, with a 1025 mb high pressure located near the Azores.
Fresh to strong NE winds are noted along the southern periphery
of this system, particularly from 14N to 22N E of 30W. These
winds are reaching the Cabo Verde Islands. Seas are 7 to 9 ft
within these winds. A surface trough is analyzed in tropical
Atlantic near 50W. Scatterometer data indicate the wind shift
related to the trough axis. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds
and moderate seas are present.

For the forecast west of 55W, the above mentioned front will weaken
to a trough Mon night and dissipate Tue. The high pressure will
shift southeastward through Mon night as a weakening cold front
moves across the waters east of northern and central Florida.
Ahead of this front, fresh to strong southwest to west winds will
impact the waters north of about 29N through Mon afternoon. Winds
and seas will diminish behind the front, which is forecast to
becoming stationary across the eastern part of the area through
the end of the period.

$$
GR