751
AXNT20 KNHC 260500
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sat Sep 26 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Fay is centered near 29.9N 43.4W at 26/0300 UTC or
about 1755 KM or 950 NM W-SW of the Azores, moving W-SW at 6 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas to 18 ft are
occurring within 60 NM nm across the N semicircle. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 29N to 30.5N between 42W and
43.5W. A gradual turn toward the S-SW is expected over the next
few days. Fay is expected to maintain it current strength
overnight then a slow weakening trend will begin through the
weekend, before the surface circulation opens up into a trough by
Tue.

Tropical Storm Gonzalo is centered near 16.9N 22.5W at 26/0300
UTC or about 50 KM or 30 nm E-NE of Sal, Cabo Verde, moving N at
8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are
near 19 ft within 210 nm NE of center. Numerous strong convection
is noted from 17N to 21N between 17W and 22W. A general northward
motion is expected to continue for the next day or so, with a
slower forward speed this weekend. On the forecast track, the
center will past across the northeastern portions of the Cabo
Verde Islands tonight and move north of the islands on Sat.
Gradual weakening is expected tonight through Sat as southerly
vertical wind shear continues to impact the storm through the
weekend. Gonzalo is expected to lose convection and become post
tropical by Sat night. Swells generated by the storm are expected
to affect the Cabo Verde Islands through Saturday. These swells
are likely to cause large and powerful surf and life- threatening
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Fay
and Gonzalo NHC Forecast/Advisories and Public Advisories at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Very Large NE Swell: A cold front extends from near 31N71W
through the north-central Bahamas and to the NW coast of Cuba.
Deepening low pressure off the middle Atlantic coast of the U.S.
has produce gale to storm force N to NE winds pointing toward
Florida and the SE U.S. coast, and generating large swell. This
swell is propagating into the area behind the cold front,
producing seas of 8 to 13 ft generally to the N of 26W and W of
70W. The highest seas of 12 to 13 ft are occurring in the
Gulfstream offshore of northern Florida, N of 29N. Buoy 41010 at
28.9N 78.5W 120 NM east of Cape Canaveral is showing 10 ft seas as
of 0300 UTC. Fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas
will follow the front through Sat morning, before starting to
subside through Sun morning.

Heavy Rainfall in Central America and Southern Mexico: A deep-
layer trough extending from the Yucatan Channel southwestward
across southern Mexico, combined with abundant low- level
moisture, is leading to heavy rainfall across portions of the
Central America from Costa Rica to Guatemala, and portions of
Chiapas and Campeche, Mexico. Rainfall amounts in this region
will create the potential for life-threatening flash flooding and
landslides through Sat, before the upper level system responsible
for the rainfall shifts into the eastern Pacific. Please refer to
local weather services as well as the International Desk at the
Weather Prediction Center at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/international/intl2.sthml for more
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed along 60W, from 06N to 17N, moving
west near 15 kt. The wave is being sheared by an upper-level low
center across the NE Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 10.5N to 19.5N between 58W and 65W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave axis is along 79W, S of 15N,
extending across Panama, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is ahead of the wave, S of
13.5N W of 81.5W and inland across Central America.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from just S-SW of Gonzalo near 15N23W
to 11N27W to 08.5N37W. The ITCZ extends from 08N39W to 11.5N55W to
10.5N60W. Aside from convection associated with Gonzalo and the
tropical waves, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted from 08N to 13N between 20W and 29W, from 05N to 07.5N
between 32W and 44W. and from 10N to 13N between 47.5W and 56W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak cold front has continued to move southward across the
eastern Gulf and Florida, and now extends from the NW coast of
Cuba near La Habana to 24N90W, then becomes stationary and
continues NW to the central Texas coast in the area of Victoria.
Widely scattered clusters of moderate convection are found within
120 nm S of the front between western Cuba and 96W. Moderate N-NE
to E-NE winds are N of this boundary E of 90W, while moderate E
winds are also within 75 nm N of the front between 90W and 96W.
Gentle E to NE winds are occurring to the south of the front. Seas
N of the front are generally 3 to 5 ft, and 2 to 3 ft to the south.

For the forecast, the weak cold front will begin to stall across
eastern portions of the Gulf tonight and then dissipate into Sat.
Moderate to locally NE to E fresh winds will follow the front
tonight. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through
Sat night. Winds will diminish slightly Sun into early next week
as weak high pressure settle across the NE Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Special Features section above for information on heavy
rainfall over portions of Central America and southern Mexico
expected tonight into Sat.

A weaker than usual pressure gradient across the nearby Atlantic
and Caribbean basin is translating to gentle to moderate trades
over most of the basin, with the exception of fresh east winds
offshore western Venezuela and NE Colombia. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in
the south-central Caribbean, 2 ft or less in the NW, and 2 to 4
ft elsewhere. A middle to upper-level low center is over the NE
Caribbean and promoting sinking air and stable conditions across
much of central portions. Scattered moderate convection across
across most of the Gulf of Honduras to 19N. and across the waters
between Jamaica and eastern Cuba.

For the forecast, the continued weak pressure gradient across the
region will support moderate to fresh trades over the south-
central Caribbean, and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Slight
to moderate seas will be over the NW Caribbean with moderate seas
elsewhere. Active showers and thunderstorms over NW portions
tonight will gradually shift eastward to the central Caribbean
through Mon.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See Special Features section above for information on Tropical
Storms Fay and Gonzalo, and on significant swell propagating
southward into waters offshore Florida and NE of the Bahamas to
68W.

A vigorous upper-level trough along the eastern seaboard of the
U.S. supports the deep low pressure off the middle Atlantic coast,
and a cold front across the western Atlantic waters from 31N71W to
the north-central Bahamas to the NW coast of Cuba. Scattered to
locally numerous moderate isolated strong convection is occurring
SE of the front to the Greater Antilles W of 70W and E of the
front to 66.5W. Moderate to fresh SW winds are occurring N of 26N
and ahead of the front to 64W, where seas are 5 to 9 ft in N
swell. Behind the front, moderate to locally fresh N to N-NE winds
prevail with recent satellite scatterometer data showing strongest
winds along most of the Florida coastal waters. Seas are 8 to 13
ft in mostly N to NE swell. To the east, as surface trough that
extends from 28N58W to 23N61W is supported by a mid level low and
is inducing numerous moderate convection from 23N to 28N between
54W and 60W. E of this area, high pressure across the NE Atlantic
drapes across Tropical Storm Fay. The weak pressure gradient to
the south continues to yield a belt of moderate trades from 10N to
20N W of 40W to the Lesser Antilles, where seas are 5 to 6 ft.
Farther E, moderate to fresh NE to E winds prevail N of the
monsoon trough to 24N between 25W and 40W, where seas are 5 to 89
ft in NE swell from Gonzalo. Otherwise mainly gentle winds
prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will
drift SE and reach from near Bermuda to central Cuba Sat night
before starting to weaken. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are expected along the frontal boundary. Fresh to
strong winds and rough to very rough seas in large N to NE swell will
follow the front through Sat morning, before subsiding through Sun
morning.

$$
Stripling