482
AXNT20 KNHC 020906
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Jun 2 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy Rainfall in Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Eastern Cuba:
Active tropical waves are going to provide increasing moisture
across the central and western Caribbean Sea for the next several
days. Meanwhile a persistent upper-level trough over western Cuba
and southward will sustain divergent flow across the area through
Friday. Expect strong thunderstorms capable of producing dangerous
lightning, heavy rain, and gusty winds near these locations
through Friday. Heavy rain can cause flash flooding, especially in
low-lying areas and hilly terrains where soil is already
saturated by earlier rainfall. The heaviest rain is forecast from
Tue to Fri. Residents living in these locations need to stay alert
and listen to their local weather/emergency management offices
for the latest information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is emerging off the coast of Africa near
14W from 11N southward, moving west at around 15 kt. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is noted from 02N to 10N between 10W
and 19W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 42W/43W from 13N
southward, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Widely scattered moderate
convection is noted from 04N to 14N between 39W and 46W.

Another Atlantic tropical wave is over Barbados near 59W/60W from
16N southward, moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is from 11N to 16N between 55W and 61W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 81W from near the
Cayman Islands southward to western Panama, moving west around 10
kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 10N
to 16N between 77W and 83W. Widely scattered showers are near the
Cayman Islands and Island of Youth.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coastal border of
Senegal and Guinea-Bissau, then curves southwestward to 07N120W.
An ITCZ continues westward from 07N20W to 07N41W and then from
07N44W to 10N56W. Widely scattered moderate convection is found
from 03N to 10N between 27W and 38W, and from 04N to 10N between
46W and 56W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Convergent southeasterly winds are joining forces with a mid-
level trough to trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms at the
central Gulf. Otherwise, a modest surface ridge extends
across the northern Gulf. Fresh with locally strong E to ESE
winds and seas of 5 to 6 ft are noted at the SW Gulf, including
portions of the Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate ESE to SE
winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through
the next several days, supporting generally moderate to fresh E
to SE winds in the western Gulf and gentle to moderate winds in
the eastern Gulf, except for pulsing locally strong winds pulsing
near the northern and western portions of the Yucatan peninsula in
the evenings. Hazy conditions due to agricultural fires over
Central America and Mexico will continue for at least the next
couple of days reducing visibility at times.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
a heavy rainfall event.

A surface trough near the Windward Passage is producing scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms across eastern Cuba, the
Windward Passage, Jamaica, and Hispaniola. Refer to the Tropical
Waves section for additional convection in the Caribbean Sea.
Fresh to strong NE to ENE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are evident
in the SW and S-central basin. Moderate with locally fresh ENE to
ESE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are seen at the eastern and north-
central basin. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas at 2 to 4
ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient will support fresh to
strong trade winds across the central Caribbean through early Mon,
with seas to around 8 ft. Fresh to strong winds are also expected
over portions of the western basin just over southern Jamaica
adjacent waters as a tropical wave moves across the region through
this afternoon. The wave is also supporting scattered showers and
tstms between the Windward Passage and the coast of Nicaragua,
which are forecast to continue and amplify the next couple of
days.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
a heavy rainfall event.

A front across the forecast waters from 30N55W SW to the central
Bahamas adjacent waters is becoming stationary. Patchy showers
are seen up to 90 nm either side of this boundary. Convergent
southerly winds farther S of this boundary are triggering
scattered moderate convection from 22N to 30N between 50W and
64W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections
for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Moderate to fresh ENE to ESE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft exist
north of 24N between the front and the Florida coast, including
the northwest and central Bahamas. Mainly gentle winds and 3 to 5
ft seas are evident N of 20N between 22W and the front. Near the
Canary and Cabo Verde Islands, moderate N to NNE winds and seas at
4 to 5 ft are seen N of 16N between the Africa coast and 24W. For
the tropical Atlantic from 07N to 20N between 24W and the Lesser
Antilles, moderate to fresh NE to ESE winds and 5 to 6 ft seas
are noted. Light to gentle monsoonal and southerly winds with 4 to
6 ft seas in moderate southerly swell prevail elsewhere in the
Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the front will become stationary along
25N today and weaken into a surface trough by Mon evening. Energy
associated with a convectively active tropical wave, currently
over the W Caribbean will lift NNE and merge with this trough by
Tue. Afterwards, the trough will drift eastward and move to the
central subtropical Atlantic waters Thu into Fri. Fresh SW winds
are forecast ahead of this trough as it crosses the northern and
then eastern offshore waters.

$$
Lewitsky