006
AXNT20 KNHC 131634
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun Sep 13 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1634 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 43W, south of 16N,
moving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is found from 05N to 15N between 38W and 45.5W.

Another central Atlantic tropical wave is along 48W, south of
17N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. A few showers are found near
this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic near 19N16W and continues
southwestward to 08N30W and then to 11N50W. The ITCZ extends from
11N50W to near 12N60W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is observed from 04N to 12N and west of 40W. Similar
convection is found from 11N to 13N between 57.5W and the Lesser
Antilles.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms prevail from
23.5N to 28.5N between the west coast of Florida and the coast of
Texas. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are also
present over the Bay of Campeche.

A weak pressure gradient supports moderate SE winds and seas 3 to
5 ft over the Bay of Campeche and over the western Gulf. Elsewhere,
under the broad ridge, light to gentle winds and slight seas
prevail.

For the forecast, weak high pressure centered over the NE Gulf
will continue to support relatively tranquil conditions to most of
the waters into Tue. The exception will be the Bay of Campeche,
where a diurnal trough will move westward offshore the Yucatan
Peninsula each evening, bringing nightly pulses of fresh NE winds.
Starting late Tue, stronger high pressure building southward from
the eastern United States will lead to increasing NE to E winds
over the basin, with speeds reaching fresh to strong and rough
seas over the northern Gulf Wed into Thu night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper- level trough over the north-central Caribbean is
helping to induce a few showers and thunderstorms over the eastern
Caribbean. Similar convection is found in the SW Caribbean.

The tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north
of the islands and lower pressures in Colombia sustain strong to
near gale-force NE-E winds over much of the central Caribbean.
Rough to very rough seas are occurring in these waters. Fresh to
strong NE-E winds and seas of 4-7 ft are found in the Windward
Passage and Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to locally fresh easterly
winds and moderate seas are evident in the eastern Caribbean.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas
prevail.

For the forecast, the aforementioned tight pressure gradient will
continue to support strong to near- gale easterly trade winds and
rough to locally very rough seas over the central Caribbean for
the next several days. Strong winds are expected this morning and
tonight in the Gulf of Honduras. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh
easterly breezes are expected over the next few days in the
eastern Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A deep layered upper-level trough extends from the central
Atlantic near 31N45W southwestward to near Jamaica, and is
supporting several areas of isolated showers. A low to middle
level trough is supporting scattered moderate convection from 23N
to 31N between 36W and 47W.

A 1025 mb high pressure is centered near 34N45W and is producing
light anticyclonic flow N of 23N and W of 48W. Lingering isolated
showers continue over the western Atlantic north fo the Bahamas. A
pair of weak stationary fronts north of the area aid in separating
the western Atlantic ridge from stronger high pressure across the
NE and E Atlantic. A 1026 mb high pressure centered NE of the
Azores extends a ridge southwestward to 24N40W. The pressure
gradient between this ridge and lower pressure across NW Africa is
producing fresh to locally strong N to NE winds from offshore of
Europe along 35N through the Canary Islands. Seas are 5 to 7 ft
across this area. Elsewhere across the tropical Atlantic moderate
to locally fresh trade winds prevail S of 23N between 28W and the
Lesser Antilles. Seas are 4 to 6 ft across this zone. To the north
of these trades, winds are moderate or less with seas 4 ft or
less.

Of note, Meteo-France has issued a gale warning for the ongoing
easterly gap wind event over the Straits of Gibraltar. This
warning will continue through 14/06Z.

For the forecast west of 55W, trades north of Hispaniola into the
Windward Passage will be fresh to locally strong into Mon. On
Tue, strong high pressure building southward through the eastern
United States will bring a cold front into the NW waters,
increasing NE winds to fresh to locally strong and causing seas to
build to rough N of the Bahamas and W of 70W Tue through Wed
night. During the middle to later portion of the week, a trough of
low pressure is forecast to move west-northwestward into the NE
portion of the waters, bringing thunderstorms.

$$
KRV