797
WTNT22 KNHC 140849
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122025
0900 UTC TUE OCT 14 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N  44.1W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT  13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 150SE   0SW  80NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 180SE  45SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N  44.1W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N  43.4W

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 18.4N  44.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 110SE   0SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 20.5N  44.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  90SE  20SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 23.0N  43.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  20SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 25.5N  41.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  15SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 27.9N  37.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  30SE  15SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  30SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 29.4N  34.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  30SE  15SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  30SW  30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 28.5N  30.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 25.9N  32.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N  44.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN