Tropical Cyclone Probabilities
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
627
FONT15 KNHC 150249
PWSAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
0300 UTC FRI AUG 15 2025
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 7(15)
SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 5(19)
MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6)
MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 15(23) 4(27)
GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10)
GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) 2(14)
PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 2(10)
PONCE PR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 9(13) 2(15) X(15)
PONCE PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 11(15) 2(17) 1(18)
AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
AGUADILLA PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2)
SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) 1(13) 1(14)
SAN JUAN PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4)
SAN JUAN PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 9(19) 1(20) X(20)
VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 1( 5)
VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 10(25) X(25) 1(26)
SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SAINT JOHN 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 9(26) 1(27) X(27)
SAINT JOHN 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
SAINT JOHN 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 6(15) 1(16) X(16)
SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 19(28) 3(31) X(31) 1(32)
SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10)
SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SABA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 10(15) 3(18) X(18) 1(19)
SABA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
ST EUSTATIUS 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 9(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16)
ST EUSTATIUS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BARBUDA 34 X 1( 1) 13(14) 7(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22)
BARBUDA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
BARBUDA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
ANTIGUA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
GUADELOUPE 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
AVES 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
DOMINICA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN