Tropical Cyclone Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
578 WTNT45 KNHC 102035 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025 500 PM AST Fri Oct 10 2025 Jerry`s center remains somewhat ill defined and embedded along the eastern end of a southeast-to-northwest oriented surface trough. Strong shear out of the north-northwest is displacing much of the associated deep convection south-southeast of the center, with trailing bands still producing heavy rains over portions of the Leeward Islands. Based on ASCAT data from this morning, the maximum winds are still estimated to be 45 kt, with tropical-storm-force winds limited to the eastern side of the circulation. The initial motion is now north-northwestward, or 340/13 kt. Jerry is expected to turn northward by tonight as it moves around the western periphery of the subtropical ridge, with that motion continuing through Saturday night. A northeastward to eastward motion is expected Sunday through Tuesday as Jerry becomes embedded within mid-latitude westerly flow. The new NHC track forecast is not too different than the previous prediction since there have not been any significant model changes from 6 hours ago. Jerry is likely to continue battling moderate to strong shear during the next couple of days, and global model fields (with the exception of the GFS) suggest that the storm will maintain an elongated circulation through this period. Although the shear might decrease a bit after 48 hours, at that point Jerry will be moving over more marginal sea surface temperatures and into a more stable environment. The NHC forecast now shows little to no change in Jerry`s intensity through day 3, which is close to that shown by the Google DeepMind ensemble mean. The same global model fields also show Jerry possibly interacting with a front in 48-72 hours, and the updated NHC forecast now shows extratropical transition by day 4 with dissipation along the front by day 5. The GFS maintains Jerry as a tropical cyclone through day 5, but that solution is considered an outlier. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of the Leeward Islands, British Virgin Islands, U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through tonight, which could result in flash flooding, particularly in urban areas and in steep terrain. 2. Swells generated by Jerry are affecting the Leeward Islands, Windward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. These swells are expected to spread toward the Turks and Caicos Islands and Bahamas tonight and on Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 21.5N 63.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 23.4N 63.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 25.9N 63.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 12/0600Z 28.3N 62.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 12/1800Z 30.3N 62.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 13/0600Z 31.4N 60.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 13/1800Z 31.4N 58.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 14/1800Z 30.1N 52.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg