164
WTNT25 KNHC 080843
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102025
0900 UTC WED OCT 08 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N  50.7W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE   0SW  70NW.
4 M SEAS....210NE 180SE   0SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N  50.7W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N  49.8W

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 14.2N  53.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE  30SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 15.7N  56.7W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE  40SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 17.3N  59.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE  40SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 18.9N  61.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE  40SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 21.1N  62.9W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE  50SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 23.6N  63.2W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE  50SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 28.3N  63.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE  70SW  90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 32.5N  58.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  70SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE  80SW  70NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N  50.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 08/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART