464
FXUS61 KBGM 202033
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
333 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure in place today into tomorrow helps keep mild
temperatures going until a front moves through Friday night. A
low pressure system moving through PA Friday night into Saturday
brings some light rain to NEPA into parts of the Southern Tier.
High pressure returns briefly for the late weekend before
becoming warmer and wetter early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Sunny skies under high pressure prevail this afternoon. Some
high clouds move in this evening as the ridge flattens out and a
trough digs into the Great Lakes region. The increase in cloud
cover helps keep overnight lows warmer tonight relative to the
last few days. Late tomorrow into tomorrow night, a couple
shortwaves pass to our north and to our south. The northern
shortwave brings a cold front through the region but with not
much moisture, only a few showers are expected, mainly downwind
of the Great Lakes. A quick moving surface low associated with
the southern shortwave passes through southern PA with some
light rain extending into parts of NEPA. Trends have been
towards a drier air mass in place ahead of the southern wave and
with the speed of the low pressure, it may not even precipitate
long enough to moisten the atmosphere for precipitation to
reach the ground. Chances of precipitation were lowered for most
of the area from chance to slight chance given the model
trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure builds back in Saturday with NW flow. Despite the
NW flow, 850 mb temperatures will be slowly warming as a long
wave trough exits to the east. Lake Ontario`s temperature is
down into the mid to low 40s so there wont be enough of a
temperature difference between the lake and aloft to generate
much if any instability. Consequently, Saturday into Saturday
night remains dry. A trough digging into the central plains
Sunday into Monday helps lift a warm front into the region
Sunday. While there is not much moisture in place, there could
be just enough isentropic lift to generate some light
precipitation, with the better chances farther north.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The long term is trending more active as the trough in the
central US moves east. Deterministic models and ensembles are in
good agreement with a low developing in the plains and moving
into the Great Lakes region early next week. With warm southwest
flow, rain is the most likely precipitation type. Looking at
ensemble low pressure tracks, there is no coastal low early next
week that is showing up that could drag in colder air and lead
to snow. By Thanksgiving, 500 mb heights indicate that there
will be troughing with mean 850 mb temperatures below average so
colder weather is likely. The 500 mb trough sets up near the
Hudson Bay; this set up is more favorable for lake effect rather
than broader synoptic systems in upstate NY and PA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected across the area through this evening.
MVFR ceilings push into the region overnight into Friday morning as
a weak disturbance moves in from the west. IFR ceiling will be
possible Friday morning from ITH on southward to AVP, but
confidence is only high enough to include at BGM at this time.

Outlook...

Friday afternoon through Friday night...Off and on periods of
rain during the day and snow/wintry mix overnight with
associated restrictions.

Saturday through Monday...High pressure builds back into the
region with mostly VFR conditions expected.

Tuesday...Chance for showers and associated restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJG
NEAR TERM...AJG
SHORT TERM...AJG
LONG TERM...AJG
AVIATION...JTC/MPK