148
FXUS61 KBGM 061801
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
101 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Conditions will be warmer this weekend, but still below normal
temperatures for early December. The weather pattern will
remain active, with several clipper systems bringing chances
for light snow over the next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Today will be warmer, with some spots even climbing above
freezing. A weak shortwave will pass over the area this
afternoon and may spark a few flurries or light snow showers
along and north of the NY Thruway corridor. Some lingering snow
showers will be possible Saturday night due to some lake
enhancement, but otherwise it will remain mainly precipitation-
free. Lows are expected to be in the mid teens to mid 20s.

Conditions will be similar on Sunday, with a more potent
shortwave arriving late in the day. This could kick off some
snow showers by late Sunday afternoon, however, the bulk of the
snow with this system will push into the area after 0Z Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The aforementioned fast moving shortwave/clipper system push
through the area early Sunday night. This system will likely
bring some light snow to the region with the highest amounts
across the north. Most of the area will see less than an inch of
snow, but the highest amounts of 1 to 3 will fall across
Central NY. This system will also drag another cold front
through and this will reinforce the cold arctic air for Monday.

This cold airmass will result in highs only in the upper teens
to mid 20s on Monday, followed by lows below zero Monday night
for some.

Another shortwave, in a series of them through the week, will
push through the area on Tuesday. More light snow showers or
flurries will be possible with little to no accumulations
expected at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
We will remain in zonal flow through the week and another
clipper system pushes in on Wednesday. The track of this system
will determine what precipitation will fall on Wednesday, with
a farther north track allowing warmer air to push in, possibly
bringing rain for Northeast PA. Current NBM highs has
temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s by Wednesday afternoon,
so certainly favoring a further north track at this time. Either
way, this system does not look to be significant and any
precipitation will likely be light. The good news about the
zonal weather pattern is that no significant storm systems are
expected and only minor snowfall accumulations will be possible,
even though we will likely see several disturbances continue to
push through during this period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

VFR conditions are expected to persist at most of our taf sites
through the rest of this afternoon. RME will have a chance for light
snow showers and tempo MVFR restrictions through 22Z, SYR is
forecast to see CIGs lower to MVFR around 20z. ITH sees MVFR CIGs
next, as the lower cloud bases drop south by around 23z here, then
around 01-02z at ELM and BGM, respectively. AVP is expected to
remain VFR through this entire taf period.

Overnight restrictions and cloud bases are somewhat uncertain
as two weak lake effect bands (of clouds, flurries and light
snow showers) set up, generally west to east across the area
(270-280 degree flow).

This type of pattern should act to keep MVFR fuel alternate CIGs in
place over RME, starting around 00z and continuing all night, into
much of Sunday morning, before slightly lifting back to MVFR. Can`t
rule out some occasional MVFR type vsby restrictions here in light
snow showers overnight, but not enough confidence yet to include in
the TAF. The forecast for SYR is continued MVFR ceiling restrictions
all night, and right through the end of the TAF period Sunday
afternoon...with only minor cloud base height fluctuations.

ITH and BGM are forecast to end up between the bands of lower lake
effect cloud heights, returning to low end VFR after 04-06z, through
the overnight and into early Sunday morning. Then, MVFR clouds
are forecast to overspread these terminals from the southwest by
the mid-morning hours Sunday out ahead of the next incoming
weather system.

ELM is progged to remain in the southern lake effect MVFR cloud band
all night, before additional MVFR clouds overspread this terminal
from the southwest Sunday morning and into the afternoon hours.

Light southwest winds today, 5 to 10 kts most of the time. Winds
turn westerly overnight and remain light. Winds then shift south-
southwest Sunday morning and gradually increase heading into the
afternoon hours, up to 10 kts.

Outlook...

Sunday Afternoon and Night...Restrictions possible as a frontal
system and scattered snow showers approaches the region;
especially NY terminals

Monday...Becoming mainly VFR, but lingering restrictions possible at
the Central NY terminals due to lake effect clouds and/or light snow
showers in the morning.

Tuesday...Restrictions possible in scattered snow showers,
especially in the afternoon and overnight.

Wednesday...Restrictions likely as another frontal system
approaches the region with snow and rain showers.

Thursday...Restrictions possible with scattered to numerous snow
showers expected across the region.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG/MPK
NEAR TERM...BJG/MPK
SHORT TERM...BJG/MPK
LONG TERM...BJG/MPK
AVIATION...DK/MJM