163
FXUS61 KBGM 071740
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1240 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak system will push through the region today with light snow
expected across central New York. The weather pattern will
remain active, with several clipper systems bringing chances for
light snow over the next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
No major changes have been made to the forecast over the near
term period. A shortwave and associated weak surface low will
pass over the region Sunday afternoon, bringing scattered snow
showers mostly along and north of the Southern Tier. The highest
chances for snow looks to be over the northern counties of our
CWA Sunday afternoon and evening. This system looks to be a
quick hitter with weak moisture availability so snowfall amounts
will be light. The northern Finger Lakes to Oneida county
should see around 1-2 inches of snow, with areas south to the
Southern Tier seeing a trace to an inch of snow.

Made a few small changes to the NBM forecast for early Monday
morning into Monday afternoon. Low level flow will come from
the NW originally, but flow turns more northerly by mid
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure pushes over the region Monday into Tuesday. This
will keep us mostly dry, but very cold as the mid level ridge
and surface high push cold arctic air overhead. Overnight into
Monday morning will be the coldest period of the week, as temps
will bottom out into the low to mid single digits across the
entire area.

Tuesday will see a warm up as winds shift to SWerly ahead of
another approaching shortwave. Highs east of I-81 will remain in
the mid to upper 20s while west of I-81 will climb into the
upper 20s to low 30s. Temperatures will be non diurnal and not
expected to cool much Tuesday night as continued SW flow pushes
warm air into the region. Temps Tuesday night should remain
about as warm as they were in the afternoon. Snow showers will
return Tuesday afternoon as a weak open wave pushes through the
region. Isentropic uplift will drive these showers, with the
bulk of the showers expected to be north of the Southern Tier
Tuesday afternoon and overnight. An inch of snow will be
possible across northern Onondaga, Madison and Oneida counties
with this first wave.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The overall pattern does not change much this week, with a ridge
off the west coast of Canada and a trough over the eastern
portion of Canada. This pattern allows Alberta clippers to push
into the region with cold air usually trailing them. This
pattern will produce the periods of snow discussed above, and
this will continue to drive clippers across the region through
the end of the week.

The first clipper of this period looks to push through Wednesday.
Precip currently looks to be a mix of rain and snow thanks to
the warm air advection that took place before this system
arrived. Lake effect showers should develop behind the system
Wednesday night as it exits to the east. Another clipper will be
fast on its heals, moving into the area Thursday night/Friday
morning. After the mid week clipper system, temperatures should
turn cold again and any other systems that push through over the
remainder of the week should be all snow.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

A mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings is expected to give way to
MVFR/Fuel-Alt restrictions as a quick-moving area of low
pressure crosses the area along with an associated cold front
this afternoon and evening. Some light snow is expected as a
result, mainly across CNY, with SYR and RME having the best
chance of seeing IFR or worse visby starting around 19-20Z.
There is some uncertainty how far south the snow will spread due
to some dry air in place and thus how far south the IFR
restrictions make it, but it can`t be ruled out at at least ITH
this evening, mainly between about 00-04z. Snow showers
transition to lake effect in the NW flow pattern behind the
front this evening and into the overnight hours. These should
bring intermittent MVFR restrictions to SYR, ITH and BGM most of
the night...and perhaps ELM at times as well. The snow showers
look to shift west and south of RME after about 06z Monday.

As the flow turns northerly and eventually even northeasterly
Monday morning, the lake effect showers and stratus clouds
should move away from our taf sites and eventually scatter
out/dissipate. Generally VFR conditions are expected after
sunrise (12z) Monday. AVP will see intermittent MVFR and VFR
CIGs through this evening and overnight; there could be a few
light snow showers or flurries here after the cold frontal
passage, but vsby restrictions are unlikely.


Surface winds will be west-southwest up to 10kts this afternoon
and early evening. Then winds shift northwest later in the
evening and overnight 5 to 15 kts. Winds eventually turn
northerly Monday morning and slowly diminish.


Outlook...

Monday afternoon and night...VFR expected.

Tuesday...VFR in the morning to early afternoon hours. Then, restrictions
possible in scattered snow showers late afternoon, evening and
overnight.

Wednesday...Restrictions likely as another frontal system
approaches the region with snow and rain showers.

Thursday and Friday...Restrictions possible with snow showers
possible in the area.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JTC/MPK
NEAR TERM...JTC/MPK
SHORT TERM...JTC/MPK
LONG TERM...JTC/MPK
AVIATION...DK/MJM