184
FXUS61 KBGM 241811
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
111 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet weather until Tuesday morning and then a frontal system
will bring periods of rain, but mild temperatures Tuesday into
Wednesday. A cold front then moves through the area Wednesday
night, bringing colder temperatures along with heavy lake
effect snow in some areas and windy conditions from
Thanksgiving into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

Quiet conditions through Tuesday morning with ridging overhead.

A low pressure system tracks into the Ohio valley tomorrow and
rain will overspread our region out ahead of an approaching warm
front by early to mid afternoon. Current best estimates are
that the rain reaches Elmira/Watkins Glen and Geneva by noon,
I-81 corridor by midday or early afternoon and eastern areas by
late afternoon...again some adjustments to this timing are
still possible. Rainfall amounts will be about a quarter inch
with this system by evening. Despite the rain and clouds
Tuesday, it will be mild with highs in mid-40s to lower 50s
expected under a steady south wind around 10 mph. Overnight the
temperatures will remain warm, with lows only in the upper 30s
to low 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

***Winter Storm Watch for Lake Effect Snow Starts Thursday
 afternoon***

Dry slot will be over the area Wednesday morning into the early
afternoon however, shower chances will increase later in the day
ahead of an approaching cold front. A strong low pressure system
will track across the UP of Michigan and into southern Ontario,
Canada overnight into Thursday morning.

Ahead of the cold front on Wednesday, temperatures will be well
above average, with highs surging into the upper 50s or low 60s.
By afternoon, rain chances increase from west to east. Also, southwest
winds will increase to 10-20 mph out ahead of the incoming cold
front.

The front pushes through the area Wednesday evening into
Wednesday night with strong cold air advection behind it. T850
falls to around -9C before daybreak Thursday. At the surface,
temperatures gradually fall below freezing, first over the
higher elevations after midnight and into the valleys by 4-7
AM...if current timing holds. A non diurnal trend is expected on
Thursday as colder air continues to filter in. Decided to drop
NBM temperatures closer to the 25th percentile for Thursday
afternoon.

On Thursday, the flow will initially be southwesterly over the
area, so any snow showers should be coming off of Lake Erie,
and may clip western and northern portions of our forecast
area. At this time, any snow accumulations are expected to be
minor (less than half an inch).

Thanksgiving afternoon through Night:

No major changes from the previous forecast except for
increasing confidence for lake effect snow entering our region
late in the day. A winter storm watch is now in effect starting
at 21Z Thanksgiving Day, however lake effect effect bands are
more likely to become organized over our area overnight Thursday
into Friday. The earlier start time in the watch is just in case
things move along faster than what models are advertising at
this time and flow turns more westerly to north-westerly
earlier. At this time, models are showing that this will occur
after 0Z, but still a few days out and it is possible the timing
changes here. This will be a long duration event, and the watch
has been issued through Saturday morning.

Previous Discussion...
The 500 and 700mb trough swings into the area on Thursday, with
increasing coverage of snow showers under deeper mid level
moisture. It remains cold at 850mb, around -8C and with lake
temperatures around +10C, that gives an 18 degree delta T, which
will be enough to produce lake induce instability and lake
effect snow showers. The exact flow on Thursday still remains
uncertain, but latest guidance seems to be honing in on
approximately 230-240 degree SW flow still, gradually veering
more westerly late in the day. This should again keep the more
focused lake effect snow bands just north and west of our
forecast area...but some showers are likely to spray off of Lake
Erie into the upslope locations and higher elevations locations
south of Syracuse into Oneida county. Temperatures are colder,
with highs in the 30s and west winds increasing between 15-25
mph with gusts up to 30-40 mph possible. By Thursday night, the
trough axis is forecast to push through. This should act to
shift the boundary layer flow around to west-northwest. Ample,
deep moisture remains locked in over the region as well; with
00z GFS profiles showing saturation up to 500mb. The snow growth
layer is generally centered between 5-9k ft AGL through the
event, with the strongest lift expected to be just under the
main DGZ by daybreak Friday morning. The potential is increasing
for accumulating lake effect snow Thursday night over portions
of Central NY. This combined with lows dropping into the 20s and
gusty west-northwest winds could make an impact on travel, with
snow covered and slick roads possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

***Winter storm watch through 12Z Saturday***

Lake effect snow continues all day Friday and likely through
Friday night. West-northwest flow persists and deeper moisture
remains in place. T850 bottom out around -11 or-12C Friday
night into Saturday afternoon. A winter storm watch is out for
Oneida, Onondaga and Madison Counties, but it is possible that
winter headlines may need to be expanded further south as well,
but forecast confidence isn`t there yet to expand those
headlines southward. Although there remains uncertainty in
timing and placement of lake effect bands, the signal is strong
enough to at least warrant a watch for our northern zones,
especially with the timing around the Thanksgiving Holiday.
Snowfall amounts will be highly dependent on wear the bands set
up and for how long. Another hazard to note with this event are
the strong winds expected. Gusts as high as 40 mph will be
possible and this will cause drifting of snow and possibly
whiteout conditions in exposed open areas.

Models also tend to cut off the lake effect snow too soon and
would not be surprised if snow showers linger well into the day
on Saturday. At this time, it was decided to put the Watch out
through Saturday morning and if needed, an extension can be
made at a later time as forecast details become more clear.

Weak high pressure over the Mid- Atlantic and eventual warm air
advection should begin to diminish the lake effect activity at
some point on Saturday. However, it remains cold Saturday and
Saturday night. Greater uncertainty enters the forecast for
Sunday into next Monday, as some warm air advection showers are
possible out ahead of a large weather system that slides east
across the southern US. Models have pulled back on this with the
12Z runs today, with some guidance showing the forcing well to
our north on Sunday into Monday and dry conditions for our area.
For now, will stick with NBM PoPs for that period due to the
great uncertainty.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Some MVFR lake effect clouds remain for SYR and RME, but should
dissipate in an hour or so as high pressure builds in from the
west. High clouds will continue through the TAF period with VFR
conditions.


Outlook...

Tuesday into Wednesday...Chance for rain showers and associated
restrictions.

Thursday into Saturday...Cold front brings Lake Effect snow
showers and associated restrictions. Best chance for IFR is
currently at ITH/SYR/RME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Winter Storm Watch from Thursday afternoon through Saturday
     morning for NYZ009-018-036-037.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPK/MJM
NEAR TERM...MPK/MJM
SHORT TERM...MPK/MJM
LONG TERM...MPK/MJM
AVIATION...KL