982
FXUS61 KBGM 011039
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
639 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will allow dry conditions and comfortable
temperatures to persist through midweek. A cold front moves
through Thursday into early Friday, bringing cooler
temperatures as we head into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
245 AM Update...

Surface high pressure will keep conditions dry through the
midweek. Above the surface, weak area of low pressure with
easterly flow may allow for mid-level clouds to develop Tuesday,
though precipitation is not expected for majority of areas.
There could be a light shower or two for northern portions of
Central NY, but chances aren`t high.

By Wednesday we get into return flow on the back side of the
surface high, and flattening to southwesterly flow aloft. That
in addition to sunshine, especially in the first half of the
day, may get some of our lower elevations to eclipse 80 degrees.

Meanwhile, in the Upper Midwest/Western Great Lakes a upper
trough will be digging in out of the Canada, cutting off a deep
upper low. An amplified pattern like this tends to progress
slower than models initially indicate, and thus it is not
surprising to see rain chances continuing to delay. That said,
high confidence exists that this system will bring moisture out
ahead of it and eventual rain for our region in the later
Thursday to early Friday timeframe. Elevated precipitable water
values, and deep moisture with near unidirectional south-
southwest flow with a moist-adiabatic look to model soundings,
point to at least a little potential for heavy rain.

After 70s-near 80 Thursday, cold air advection in the wake of
the front is forecast to dip that range to more like mid
60s-mid 70s Friday-Saturday. The somewhat cooler air may be
coming more from a west-southwest direction initially and thus
post-frontal lake effect showers and clouds may be pretty
limited. That said, a renewed shot of chilly air may drop in
from the northwest during the second half of the weekend for
another notch down in temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions expected across all terminals today with partly
sunny skies and light winds.

Guidance is showing a chance for fog yet again at ELM tonight.
Confidence in this is low as conditions have been very similar
over the past several nights, with some nights producing
IFR/LIFR fog and other nights staying VFR. It seems we will see
a little more moisture work its way in today, with dewpoints
tonight in the upper 40s vs the low to mid 40s we have seen over
the past several nights. With the surface high centered just to
our east, winds should become calm and stay calm through the
night, which should allow at least patchy fog and IFR conditions
later tonight. Extended LIFR restrictions due to fog remains
possible but confidence is not high enough to include it in the
TAF at this time.


Outlook...

Monday night...VFR Expected. Chance for valley fog at ELM late.

Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR.

Thursday and Thursday night...Restrictions possible with showers and
thunderstorms moving into the region.

Friday...Lingering showers possible, with associated
restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL
DISCUSSION...KL
AVIATION...JTC