597
FXUS61 KBGM 292359
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
759 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low will move east of the region bringing an end
to the spotty showers tonight. High pressure then builds for the
weekend and most of next week. High pressure gives way to a
frontal passage by later next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A broad upper level low will slowly move east across northern New
England as high pressure builds into the region at the surface this
weekend. Some slight instability and weak moisture flow off of Lake
Ontario keeps the potential of spotty rain showers into the evening
hours tonight. Skies should clear out with patchy valley fog
possible yet again overnight. Another chilly night with lighter
winds and clear skies with lows in the 40`s.

Slightly steeper low level lapse rates in the daytime this weekend
should fire off some scattered afternoon cumulus clouds. Overall
though the weekend is looking mostly sunny with a slow warming trend
starting.

Surface high pressure currently looks to hang firm till about
Wednesday. Once the high shifts north and east of the region A slow
warming trend with a bit higher humidity should occur due to
southerly flow. Highs by the middle of next week should get close to
80 with lows back up in the 50`s.

Actually fairly good ensemble agreement for a frontal boundary to
sweep through the region with low pressure forming out ahead of it
to warrant the mention of showers Thursday into Friday. This should
drop the high temperatures slightly each day as well.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Dry weather is expected the next 24 hours. VFR conditions at
all terminals, with the exception of potential valley fog at
KELM for a small window up to and including dawn. Even as winds
subside this evening, there is still plenty of flow out of the
northwest just off the surface to keep things a bit stirred;
also causing some patchy lake effect clouds for the NY terminals
overnight. This stirring flow, along with drying conditions
this past afternoon with dewpoint that got down to 40, is
leading to less confidence for how pervasive valley fog will get
at KELM late tonight. A narrower window of fluctuating IFR
visibility is figured between 09Z-12Z, but there remains
uncertainty; some model guidance hints at scattered lake clouds
drifting above the surface which could further interrupt fog
formation. During the day Saturday, we remain on the leading
side of building high pressure, and thus dry air riding in on
modest west-northwest winds.

Outlook...

Saturday Night through Wednesday...VFR with high pressure.
Valley fog possible at or near ELM most mornings.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWG
DISCUSSION...MWG
AVIATION...MDP