043
FXUS61 KBGM 161049
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
649 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Very warm and humid conditions remain in place through
Thursday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop this afternoon and evening. A few storms could produce
heavy downpours. More storms are expected Thursday afternoon,
with damaging winds possible. It looks to dry out with lower
humidity levels for Friday and Saturday, along with seasonably
warm temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
215 AM Forecast...

Patchy fog is developing across the river valleys tonight with
clear skies and high pressure overhead. Temps tonight are in the
mid 60s to low 70s, and with dewpoints in the mid 60s, it feels
a little muggy out.

The ridge axis moves east of the area tonight, allowing SW flow
to return and pushing temps into the upper 80s to low 90s and
dewpoints into the upper 60s to low 70s. This leads to heat
indices in the low to mid 90s across the region. A Heat Advisory
has been issued for portions of the central Southern Tier,
Finger Lakes region and Mohawk Valley where heat indices are
expected to be between 95-97 this afternoon. A potent shortwave
is expected to move into the area later this afternoon from the
SW, bringing increasing clouds, showers and storms across the
region, which could eventually lower temperatures by the
evening, at least for western portions of the area. CAM guidance
shows some isolated storms popping up in the Finger Lakes to
Mohawk Valley in the early to mid afternoon, with the bulk of
the precipitation from the shortwave starting around 5-6pm.
Model soundings show a very moist atmosphere with long, skinny
CAPE and deep warm cloud depths, leading to storms producing
heavy rain and possible flash flooding. PWATs will increase in
the late afternoon and evening, approaching 2in as the shortwave
moves into the region. CAMs vary on the available CAPE, but
1000-2000 j/kg looks to be what the average is across the area.
0-6km bulk shear is not very high, with a widespread 15-20kts
expected. A few pockets of 25kts are showing up, especially
near the shortwave. Also, DCAPE has increased to an average of
700-900 j/kg, with pockets of 1000 j/kg. These parameters show
the potential for some thunderstorm organization and a few pulse
storms to develop and produce isolated damaging wind gusts.
Because of this setup, SPC has placed our region in a Marginal
Risk for severe weather (1 of 5).

A Slight Risk for excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding
is present across NEPA today. With the recent heavy rain over
this area Sunday and Monday, flash flooding will be achieved
easier (with lower flash flood guidance) thus necessitating the
Slight Risk. The rest of the region is under a Marginal Risk
where slow moving storms dropping heavy rain could cause
isolated flash flooding issues. At this time, confidence was not
quite high enough on the timing and location of convection to
issue any flood watches, but a targeted flood watch may be
issued later this morning if guidance can give us more
confidence in where the heaviest storms may develop. Scattered
showers and storms continue into Wednesday night along with
mainly cloudy skies and warm, humid conditions. Overnight lows
only dip down into the upper 60s and lower 70s areawide.

Another active weather day is in store for Thursday as a cold
front will move through the region.

Temps will climb into the mid to upper 80s, and with dewpoints
in the low 70, very muggy conditions are expected. A heat
advisory was not issued at this time as heat indices are in the
upper 80s to low 90s.

A cold front is expected to move through the region in the
afternoon. Ahead of this front, the atmosphere will be primed
for thunderstorms to develop. CAPE values of 1500-2500 j/kg are
expected to develop over the region with 0-6km bulk shear values
increasing to 30-40kts. Mid level lapse rates also are expected
to increase ahead of the front to around 6.5C. Hodographs show
the potential for some rotating storms, with isolated super
cells possible ahead of the cold front. Because of this, a
Marginal Risk for severe weather has been issued for the area.
Damaging winds and hail would be the main threat, but an
isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
200 AM Update...

Zonal flow aloft continues Thursday night as a cold front approaches
the region. This will allow showers to persist into the overnight
period gradually phasing out as drier air filters in. NBM winds were
too low ahead of the front, therefore bumped them up during this
period. Temperatures will range in the low to mid 60s. Winds shift
northwest behind the front with cooler air advecting into the area
by Friday morning. Less humid conditions are expected with highs in
the mid to upper 70s along with dew points in the mid 50s to
low 60s. High pressure should keep conditions dry with mostly
sunny skies. Northwest flow and clear skies continue into Friday
night helping temperatures dip into the low to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
200 AM Update...

High pressure holds into Saturday with another dry and mostly sunny
day in store. Although clouds begin to creep into the region
Saturday evening as the next frontal system approaches. Rain
showers and thunderstorms will move through Saturday night into
Sunday. Drier conditions follow on Monday as the front is south
of the area. Weak ridging is in place on Tuesday with the
potential for showers to develop as a few weak waves attempt to
move in. Temperatures this period start off milder with highs
in the mid 70s to low 80s through Monday. Southwesterly flow
returns by Tuesday with temperatures beginning to climb into the
upper 70s to mid 80s. Overnight lows will otherwise range in
the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions this morning through the afternoon hours. Showers
and storms move back into the area late this afternoon. Timing
of these storms remains somewhat uncertain as CAMs show a few
hour difference in their time of arrival. PROB30 groups have
been introduced to AVP/BGM/ELM/ITH/SYR this evening to show the
best chance of when storms may impact the terminal. IFR visby
may be possible if a strong storm moves over the area, but
confidence in this occurring is too low to include in the TAF
at this time. After the showers and storms depart, MVFR ceilings
are expected to move into ITH/BGM/AVP. With rain moving through
ELM, fog should develop, with IFR conditions developing after
8z tonight.

Outlook...

Thursday...Restrictions likely with a few rounds of showers and
thunderstorms.

Friday through Saturday...Mainly VFR.

Sunday...Occasional restrictions possible in showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for NYZ015>018-023>025-036-037-055-056.
     Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for NYZ062.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JTC/MJM
NEAR TERM...JTC
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...ES
AVIATION...JTC