355
FXUS61 KBGM 271803
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
203 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Spotty lake effect rain showers will come to an end this evening
with dry and slightly milder conditions expected Thursday. Showers
and cooler air will move into the region Thursday night and Friday.
High pressure with dry and progressively milder weather is expected
for the upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
135 PM Update...

 Now through Thursday...

Pesky lake effect rain showers are expected to end early this
evening as broad sinking motion develops behind a departing upper
trough and drier air overspreads the area while winds across Lake
Ontario weaken and back more westerly. High pressure will then
takeover through much of Thursday with temperatures becoming milder
than today.

 Thursday night and Friday...

A surface cold front cutting through the upper Lakes is still on
track to move through the forecast area during this period and it
has decent dynamic support aloft from a digging upper low over
Ontario. Best juxtaposition of meteorological features looks to be
across the NY Thruway counties with weakened forcing extending down
into NEPA centered around the 03Z-09Z overnight period. There seems
to be a good consensus for synoptic scale drying by early afternoon
on Friday as the tightening upper low spins in a dry slot. Rain
probabilities appear to significantly decrease...especially for the
Twin Tiers and rest of NEPA. Significantly cooler air will be
quickly on the heels of the frontal passage which is likely to wake
up the lake moisture and instability as seen in forecast soundings.
The NBM and latest deterministic models really back off on QPF later
Friday but the cyclonic flow and instability aloft suggests we
should experience plenty of lake clouds and shower chances over our
favored areas. The Canadian GGEM is about the only guidance staking
a claim to this idea so have blended this a little heavier as an
adjustment to the NBM guidance.

 Friday night through Wednesday...

Will continue to portray the chance for lingering lake effect
showers on Friday night into Saturday before high pressure finally
sets in and carries us through early next week with rain free
conditions and a slight warming trend. Global models then indicate a
relatively high amplitude pattern across the Northern Hemisphere
with anomalously low heights cutting deep into the Southeast.
Operational runs are keying in on coastal low development next
Wednesday with a spread of solutions moving northward along the
coast and offshore. Ensemble patterns are leaning with more of an
offshore solution at this time, but confidence in either outcome
right now is low.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Scattered clouds and spotty lake effect rain showers are
expected to linger across the area the rest of this afternoon
with occasional brief restrictions possible, mainly around ITH,
SYR and BGM. Skies are expected to begin clearing this evening
with VFR conditions expected through the rest of the TAF period.
Given today`s rainfall around ITH and BGM, some patchy fog
cannot be ruled out later tonight as skies clear and winds
become light, but confidence was too low to include at this
time.


Outlook...

Thursday afternoon...mainly VFR.

Thursday night into early Friday...A front will bring a period
of rain and possible restrictions to the area along with a low
chance of thunder.

The rest of Friday...Lingering showers possible, mainly across
CNY

Saturday through Monday...Mainly VFR with high pressure
building in and lake effect winding down.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAB
DISCUSSION...JAB
AVIATION...DK